2014 Topps Gold Jon Lester

September is Childhood Cancer Awareness month. As a nod to the Gold Together activities going on this month to help raise awareness of the leading cause of death by disease in children, I thought I'd contribute several "gold" themed posts sprinkled throughout the month. Here's the next one.

Let's talk about this card...

Look at all that gold! This card is either a fond reminder or a bitter pill. Personally, the 2013 series is the one with the strongest pull to me. Probably because I was able to attend the clinching game six. I also do not hold a grudge with the Sox for Lester not signing long term. So all I do is look at this card and think, "wow, that was a great game on the way to a memorable series win". Isn't that all you can ask for from a card?

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If you are able this month, or any month, to support the Gold Together efforts, I highly recommend you consider a donation. You can follow the the link to the American Cancer Society here.

Support their efforts to be Gold Together!

Was Jon Lester Any Good?

With the news of his retirement from baseball still fresh in my mind, I was thinking about Lester today. I wondered how he performed in games I attended. I assumed I had seen him pitch quite a bit. So, I flipped through my scorebook so to see how he did while I was keeping score.

Ok. Two? I only saw him pitch twice? Well, I only scored a game he pitched twice? That's like John Smoltz level viewership. I'm not even sure how that happened. But, that's what we have.

So, even though it's not exactly a representative sample, how did he do in the games I scored?

Well, he had a .500 record. A bit below his Boston career average. His 2.67 ERA was a good clip. Even better than his career numbers would suggest.

What if we extrapolated those number over a full 32-start season? Obviously his percentages would be the same. a 16-win campaign would be the third highest of his career. The 208 strikeouts would be a solid accomplishment, good for fourth highest of his career.

So I think it's fair to say I pretty much saw the standard Jon Lester in my two outings. Nothing too exciting, but two solid starts.

How did Lester do when you were in the park?

2021 Topps Series 1 Blaster!

Yet another box I can't remember where it came from. Not sure if it's from the card vendor story, or not? But, where it came from isn't nearly as important as the fact that it's open and ready to be talked about.

Let's get to it!

You probably don't need to see the box, but it helps me stay organized. I guess you'll have to deal with it,

What am I going to do with yet another card of this guy? Will it ever stop?

Former Red Sox Jon Lester. Lots of pinstripes in the first two cards. With the cropping of this picture, the pinstripes sure do make things a jumbled mess.

Another former Sox pitcher. At least there's no pinstripes here. 

A chrome version of a guy having a pretty good year.

What the....another one??

A nice short print variation of the newest member of the 500 HR club.

I don't like World Series cards as much when they don't feature the Red Sox.

He's off to a bit of a rocky start to his career. But, I think he could still make this card valuable some day.

Nothing super spectacular in the box, but a couple Sox and inserts of other stars. That's about all I usually hope for.

How did your box go?

I Prefer My Nachos Grande

The internet is a wonderful thing, isn’t it? Oh, sure it’s mostly used these days for misinformation campaigns. But, every once in a while its goodness shines though. Such as the other day when I received a tweet from Chris over at Nachos Grande. He was spending some time going through blogger’s want lists, and he had found some cards off mine. All he needed was an address, and the cards would be on their way.

Does it get any better than that?

It wasn’t much longer before an envelope arrived with a handful of cards to add to my collection. Which cards were in there? I’m glad you asked!

Chris made a nice dent in my 2011 Gypsy Queen needs. I like the look of GQ this year. It has a classic elegance without getting too frilly about it. These three guys run the spectrum of fan favorites. Youkilis was beloved when he was in Boston, and most considered his time here too short. But, when you need to make room for the great Will Middlebrooks, sacrifices need to be made. David Ortiz, of course, practically spent his entire career in Boston, and people are still hoping for at least one more season to be added on. Crawford, on the other hand, couldn’t be run out of town fast enough for most fans. While I never understood the vile, most fans were pleased that 2011 was Crawford’s only full season in Boston.

More variety! Lester was a complex player. He went from being ridiculed for wondering why he wasn’t the ace of the staff, to being the most important piece of any pitching staff in baseball history. All without having his performance changing. It was all about perception. I guess a ring will do that for you sometimes. Speaking of rings, Speaker has a couple of those himself. I’ve always felt sorry for Speaker. He was from the wrong time. A player of his talents should be revered in Boston. There should be statues of him everywhere. But, he played before there was even video of him. He can’t have his number retired…he didn’t wear one. His greatness is lost to history a bit.

Finally, Chris included these great 2008 Allen and Ginter needs. Wait. What’s that? Cespedes wasn’t on the Red Sox in 2008? He wouldn’t play for the Sox until 2014? Did A&G use an old design to predict the future? Nope. These are custom cards created by Chris’s pal Ryan. I can’t underestimate how great these cards are in person. They’ll look fantastic next to their 2008 friends in my binder.

So, a huge thank you to Chris. The cards are much appreciated. And, even though they weren’t required, a return package is on its way to you. Hope you like it.

Thanks again!

Holding the Ball

I don’t watch a lot of games on television. For any number of reasons, most of the times I catch the Sox are radio broadcasts, gameday simulations, or live in the park. I certainly don’t catch many Cubs games on television. So I had no idea of the magnitude of this Lester case of the yips. I knew he didn’t like to throw the ball to first. I didn’t know that he NEVER threw to first.

How does this work?

Just watching his one game last night, I was beyond frustrated. I can’t imagine being a Cubs fan and having to watch it happen 30 times a year. A guy reaches first, and he takes his lead halfway there, and steals second on the first pitch. How did that not drive fans, players, management, everyone beyond crazy?

I remember watching Rickey Henderson when he was with the Sox. Now, this was 2002 Henderson, not 1982 Henderson. But, you could tell he still terrorized pitchers just by taking a lead at first. Their concentration was gone. The batter became secondary to them. They’d keep throwing over. And over. And over. They’d throw high fastballs to at least give the catcher a shot at throwing him out. Everything the pitcher did was based on a reaction to Henderson being on first. I would sit there watching him wondering just how he wasn’t named the MVP every year from 1981-1986. He changed the game.

With Lester on the mound, every runner at first base is Rickey Henderson. In his prime.

How is this not a huge problem for the Cubs?

Are teams just not as equipped to take advantage of it as I think they are? I remember a playoff series back in the day against the Angels and Yankees. The Angels realized that Bernie Williams had no arm. So, they were going first to third every time he had the ball in his hands. Or, second to home on every hit. They made a mockery of him. I remember thinking “this is it.” He’s going to be a weakness for the Yankees from here on in. But, it never really worked that way. I guess David Ortiz doesn’t go first to third no matter who’s in centerfield. 

So, is that what’s saving Lester? Do you need at least some speed to steal second, even with a 15’ lead? Are the Cubs able to compensate for it because they know the guy’s running? If you know he’s running, a pitchout is probably more effective. Or, do they have other tricks up their sleeves? After all, they did throw a runner out at second last night. So, not everyone can steal off Lester in any situation.

But, geez, why not? And how can the rest of the team just not beat him with a stick? 

At some point doesn’t he have to throw something over there? Even if it gets away, the guy was getting to second either way. What’s the harm? Maybe Rizzo knocks the ball down and can make a play at second. Maybe by sheer luck it goes right to Rizzo? Don’t you have to at least try something? Because I don’t understand how what he’s been doing isn’t a huge problem.

Of course, he did win his World Series start last night.

Without throwing to first.

The Stage Has Been Set

With the Cubs beating the Dodgers in the NLCS, it was all over except the waiting. It meant the Indians and Cubs would be waiting to face each other in Game 1 of the World Series Tuesday night.

As with any match-up of this magnitude, there’s really only one question on anyone’s mind. Who do I want to win the Series?

This year, that decision is trickier than some. There’s no clear cut winner. If the Red Sox are playing, that’s an obvious one. If the Yankees are playing, just as obvious. Sometime my rationale is stupid. I would probably cheer against the Giants because I don’t want them to have more championships this century than the Red Sox do. I’d probably cheer against the Rays because the Devil Rays were so annoying, and for the Phillies because I’ve always felt a kinship with their fans. I would have cheered for the Dodgers because Adrian Gonzalez was cheated out of his 2013 ring with the Sox. Or the Blue Jays because so many Blue Jays fans seem to be fans of this blog.

But, for this match-up, things are a bit murky. Both teams are littered with ex-Red Sox. Both teams have gone a long time since winning their last World Series championship. Neither team is a particular rival of the Sox. I would have expected that I’d be rooting for the Cubs, as sort of a “long championship drought” kinship. And, a few years ago, that probably would have been the case. But, not this year.

I’m rooting for the Indians.

The first reason why is Joe Maddon. While it has slowed a bit since his move to the Cubs, but I’m already annoyed by the treatment Maddon gets from the media. His “genius Joe” routine is beyond annoying. The fact that he makes his team dress up in ridiculous costumes is maddening. For a guy who hasn’t won anything, he’s treated like god’s gift to managing. Imagine if he actually had a ring on his finger to go along with it? I shudder to think. From there, a couple other minor reasons. Jon Lester made a decision to not sign with the Sox. He could have chosen them, but he didn’t. Likewise, Theo made the decision to abandon the team to fit his desires. I figure they deserve to go winless more than other players.

Like the ones on the Indians, for instance. Mike Napoli was ditched by the team. Same with Coco Crisp. It seems to me that Tito Francona was tricked (by Theo) into leaving the Sox before he might have wanted to. I don’t been bad cheering for them. They’re still “one of us.” There’s also the marginal reason to root for the AL team. Keeping it in the League. Or, rooting for the team that beat the Red Sox. It’s slightly easier to swallow if the Sox are swept out of the playoffs by the eventual World Champions. 

Now, I admit, I’m not thrilled about hoping for Cleveland to win another championship this year. I’m not comfortable with them becoming a sports powerhouse to rival Boston’s glory days. But, then I look at the Browns, and don’t worry about that too much. I’m also not all that eager to open the “What if the Sox had traded for Miller instead of Cleveland?” line of questioning. But, those are minor issues in comparison. When it comes down to it, I can’t cheer for Joe Maddon.

Let’s go Indians!

Red Sox All-Ring Team

I’m not sure how the topic came up. But, at some point recently, a buddy of mine and I started wondering what the Red Sox all ring winning team would be. You know, it’s one of those tangents people get on during discussions sometimes. I thought it might be fun to see what that team might look like.

The first question that needs to be answered before starting an exercise like this is, what qualifies someone to be on the team?  I think the original topic was something along the lines of best World Series performers. But, does that mean the players who performed the best during the World Series? Is that a lifetime award? What about Someone like Manny Ramirez who had one great World Series as part of an amazing career. Does he lose out to someone like Jacoby Ellsbury who had two World Series trips to star in? What about Jake Peavy? A wonderful pitcher with a long career, who didn’t have the best trip to the Series.

So, I decided to just go with career. Overall. The best players to ever win a ring with the Sox. The all-ring team. Maybe one day I’ll try an all-World Series Championship team. But, that’s for another time.

So, who do I think is the best team you can make up of players who won a ring by playing in a World Series game with the champion Red Sox? I’m glad you asked.

OK. You didn’t ask. But here’s my answer anyway.

DH: David Ortiz. Let’s start with the easy one. He’s the only DH to play for a World Series champion Red Sox team. He might later be the only full-time DH in the Hall of Fame. End of discussion.

C: Jason Varitek. Not much more difficult. But, there’s at least some competition. Sort of. I don’t think TEK would be scared of Saltalamacchia or Sam Agnew. But, they’re there.

1B: Kevin Youkilis. The Red Sox have had a surprising lack of depth at first on their World Series winners. As much as I want to go with Stuffy McInnis for comedic value alone, it has to be one of the modern guys. So, is it Youk or Napoli? I think it’s safe to say that Youkilis had the better career. Barely. So far.

2B: Dustin Pedroia. I promise you, the early championship teams had some good players. But, best I can tell Pedroia is the only World Champion Red Sox second baseman with an MVP award on his shelf. 

SS: Orlando Cabrera. Seriuosly, how did the Red Sox win eight titles but still have their best shortstop be Cabrera? But, it’s not Drew or Lugo. (Maybe one day this will be Bogaerts?) And, no offense to Everett Scott, but how he won three rings with the Sox is beyond me. So, I go with OC.

3B: Jimmy Collins. Welcome to the team 1903 champs! Honestly, someone like Mike Lowell could make a pretty strong argument. But, Collins is in the Hall of Fame, so I don’t care to think about it anymore.

OF: Manny Ramirez, Tris Speaker, Babe Ruth. Basically Ruth and Speaker might be more obvious choices than anyone but Ortiz. The only possible reason you’d have to exclude either of them is if you argue over the selection rules. Ruth played in three World Series with the Red Sox, but only played in the outfield in one of them…in two games. So, he’d be the closest to not making it, but only on a technicality. The only question with Ramirez is if a Hall of Famer like Harry Hooper would beat out a non-Hall of Famer. But, it’s hard to argue against Ramirez’s career numbers. He gets the spot.

SP: Cy Young, Pedro Martinez. That’s it. I’ll have Young go games 1,3,4,5,7 and Pedro go games 2 and 6. Sound like a plan? Honestly, I narrowed it down to a top ten. From there, as much as I want to include Babe Ruth, his career as a pitcher wasn’t quite long enough. (Although, if it was based solely on performance in the World Series itself, he’d be an automatic inclusion.) Same with Smoky Joe Wood. If this was based solely on time with the Red Sox, he’d be hard to ignore. He was THAT good in 1912. Jake Peavy has that Cy Young, but not sure he really had enough of a career other than that. Lackey never even won the Cy Young. Curt Schilling has to be on the team. He’s the closest of the bunch to being a Hall of Famer. So, that leaves me with Tim Wakefield, Josh Beckett, and Jon Lester for two spots. So, I’m dropping Lester because his career is just too short. Final answer: Cy Young, Pedro Martinez, Curt Schilling, Tim Wakefield, Josh Beckett.

CL: Jonathan Papelbon. Can I use Cy Young here? I really wanted to go with Keith Foulke here. But, I think Papelbon has had a more sustained career as a closer. You really can’t go wrong with either one, though.

So, there’s my team.

Who makes it on yours?

Paying Porcello

In addition to the spectacular win on Opening Day, the Sox had more good news for all of us. Right after the game, they announced that they had agreed to a long term deal with Rick Porcello.

What great news!

After all, he’s a good young pitcher. He’s exactly the type of player you lock up while you can.

But, some people apparently weren’t so sure.

One tweet that came out almost immediately was that the 4-83 was more than the Sox first offered Lester. Which, even if that were a reason to be upset with the deal, isn’t quite true.

Yes, the Sox “only” offered Lester 4-70 in that Spring Training offer that has gotten everyone so riled up. But, as I discussed earlier, that offer was really just matching what other pitchers of his caliber received, after adjusting for his age. The AAV of the offer was the same as the likes of Cain, and Hamels, and Bailey. It was just lower total money because Lester was already 30 when the Sox were making the offer.

So, we should do the same with the Porcello deal. Compare it to Lester if you’d like, but adjust it for his age. Compare it to Cain, and Hamels, and Bailey too. But, adjust it for their ages too. Because once you do that, this becomes a monster deal for the Sox. After all, the latter three all signed big contracts in their twenties that carried them into their early thirties. $100 million type contracts. Those that have gotten a few years into it, Cain and Hamels, are starting to regret it. Now that both are older, they just aren’t worth the money anymore. So, if you look at the 5-6 year $100-115 million contract range that they all signed for, the first three or four are worth it, and the other two or three are albatrosses. The idea being that you’ll take the dead weight in order to get those good years. The Sox went another way. They’re only paying for the good years. Sure, they paid a slight premium. But, nothing as huge as adding on the two anchor years at the end. So, yes they offered more money to Porcello than they did with Lester. But, they were getting the better years of Porcello’s career too. (Plus, how do we know the first offer wasn’t 4-70, like Lester’s first offer was?) So, they slightly overpaid for prime years instead of vastly overpaying for decline years. How is that not brilliant?

Some people are pointing to the fact that Porcello hasn’t pitched for the Sox yet. How can they sign him to that money, they’re screaming, when you don’t know how he’ll pitch in Boston? I think it’s funny that these are the same people who have been insisting that the Sox need to trade for Hamels. Or should have signed Shields. Neither of them have pitched in Boston either. So, if you’re going to take a risk on a big contract, shouldn’t you take it on a young pitcher whose career is trending upwards? Isn’t that exactly where you take the risk?

Isn’t this the perfect contract?

Lots on Losing Lester

I have to admit, I’m a little surprised.

Not so much that Lester went to the Cubs. It was all sort of up in the air there for a while. But, that the Sox didn’t spend the extra money.

I know. They’ve said all along that they have this thing with signing older pitchers to long deals. I get that. But, I also remember that John Henry hated the Josh Beckett trade. His theory was, when they traded for Beckett, they had to give up prospects, and then sign him to a long-term deal. He would have rather kept the prospects and just spent money on AJ Burnett. (I know the Sox won the World Series thanks to the trade, but you have to wonder what kind of trade-off Beckett/Lowell was vs Burnett/Hanley.) This was the same situation. So, I was a little surprised they didn’t just throw a ton of money at Lester rather than have to give Philly (say) prospects in order to pay Hamels almost as much. Now, if that’s what they end up doing, I’d probably agree with the move. I’m just surprised that they made it.

I’m also surprised that so many people are upset about the Spring Training Offer. Buster Olney even got in on the action by pointing out that the Sox offer was well below the $100+ million deals signed by pitchers Matt Cain, Cole Hamels, and Homer Bailey. Oddly, Olney makes the Red Sox’s argument better than they ever could. The other three pitchers he mentioned? All signed six year deals when they were 28. The Red Sox were offering Lester a four year deal when he was 30. The Cain contract? Well I don’t remember him being a hero in the World Series this season. Or, you know, in the rotation at all. Maybe that’s because the last two seasons he’s been a combined 10-17 , 4.09 ERA, 84 ERA+. Hamels? Better. A combined 17-25, 3.00, 125 or so. Bailey? The pitcher Olney refers to as a much less accomplished pitcher? He was coming off an 11-12, 3.49, 108 season when he signed his deal for a 17.5 AAV to carry him until he’s 34. So, the Sox offered Lester coming off a 15-8 3.75 110 season a contract with…wait for it…an AAV of 17.5 to carry him until he’s 34. It’s not their fault that Lester was older as he entered free agency. (Well, it is, but you get the idea.) I would certainly argue that Cain and Hamels were better pitchers than Lester when they signed their deals, not to mention younger, while he was the same pitcher as Bailey. It looks like the 4/70 was perfectly in line, especially considering he said he would be willing to take a discount. Lester turned it down. It could have bit him. After all, his 2012 ERA+ was a career low 87. If he did that again, he’d be begging the Sox for their 4/70. But, he didn’t. He went out, and his 155 ERA+ was a career high. As such, he got higher offers…including a higher offer from the Sox to reflect his new stature. The Sox didn’t blow it. They offered a fair deal, and got burned when Lester had a career walk year. Good for him.

I’m especially surprised that a self-proclaimed “grown-ass man” would voluntarily go to a team where he’d have to dress up like a nerd, or a Frozen character, or whatever other ridiculously demeaning outfit Maddon chooses that month.

Now the Sox just need a next move. I’ve always said that the problem with not overpaying for players is that you don’t get the players. Everyone will agree that the Yankees gave Jacoby Ellsbury a terrible contract last offseason. They’ll regret it tenfold in a few years. The Sox were right to not overpay for him. But…he sure would have been handy last year. He might even be useful next year. So, it’s great that the Sox didn’t overpay for him. But, they needed to replace him. They face the same thing with Lester. No, he’s not worth the contract the Cubs gave him. In six years, they’ll be paying the equivalent of Jake Peavy $25 million. But, next year they have their ace. The Sox don’t.

Your move, Ben.

Do The Sox Need an Ace?

The debate has been going on ever since the Sox sent Jon Lester out west. The fire was fueled more recently by comments by Cherington saying that an ace is nice to have, but wasn’t going to be the sole focus of this team. That sounds like a pretty sound strategy to me. But, it didn’t stop the questions. What are the Sox going to do next year without an ace?

My favorite part of that question is that it’s the first time that I’ve almost universally heard Lester referred to as an ace. But, that’s another matter.

Or, is it?

I guess this whole thing hinges on what you call an ace. Does every team have an ace? Personally, I say no. Sure, everyone has an ace of their staff. For instance, the Sox ace right now is probably Clay Buchholz. But, in every five man ranking, someone has to be on top. Even if only by default. That doesn’t make Clay an “ace.” In the last 20 years or so, I’d say the Sox have only had one ace. Unless you count Beckett for one season…or maybe just the postseason. To me when your ace pitches, you expect to win. When Pedro pitched, I expected the Sox to win. When Pedro got a lead, he didn’t give it up. If the Sox lost four in a row, the streak ended with Pedro. You almost didn’t have to watch the game, unless it was to see what record he might set. Contrast that with someone like Curt Schilling, or Lester himself. When they pitched, I knew the Sox had a good shot. Depending on the opposing pitcher, maybe a really good shot. Curt would keep the Sox in the game and give them a chance to win. With Pedro? I didn’t care who the opposing pitcher was. Pedro didn’t keep the Sox in the game. He kept the opposing team out of the game.

So, can the Sox win the World Series without an ace? Of course. They just did it last year. The Giants have done it a couple times. Is it better if you have an ace? Absolutely. But, as Cherington pointed out, you need the rest of the team too.

Remember Pedro’s glory years? The Pedro-Saberhagen led rotation? Pedro was such an ace that he almost carried those teams to the World Series himself. Almost. But, he needed a team around him. Even Pedro. In those years, I often wondered if teams were better off in the playoffs throwing their worst pitchers against Pedro. He was going to lose anyway. Why not save their best pitcher to actually get a win against someone else. Imagine if the Indians had shifted Colon off Pedro.

Which is sort of what an ace-less staff would do. Say the Sox went out this offseason and spent on a big ace. Lester, if he’s suddenly an ace. Or Scherzer. Or whatever they can get. But, then are left with Clay and three youngsters to finish it off. Sure, the guy at the top would win most of his starts. But, the Sox would lose most of the others. What if, instead, the Sox filled their staff with #2 caliber pitchers? Instead of overpaying for an ace, they filled the entire staff with really good pitchers. As you go through the season, you’d be facing another team’s 1-2-3-4-5 rotation, but countering that with a 2-2-3-3-4. So, if you go on paper…1 beats 2, 2 beats 3 and so on…In those five games, the Sox would go 3-2, assuming you split the 2-2 and 3-3 games. That’s better than 1-4.

And, that’s assuming that they go as they would on paper. But, was John Lackey the ace of the Red Sox last season? I’m thinking “no.” But, did he beat the aces of other teams? I’m thinking “yes.” He even took down a couple true aces along the way in Price and Verlander. Would the Pedro-Saberhagen rotation have been able to do that? If Pedro wasn’t facing them? Doubt it. But, because the Sox rotation had balance instead of being top-heavy they were able to beat three teams in the playoffs that had pitchers who might have been true aces.

Naturally, I’m not saying the Sox would have been worse off last year if ’99-’00 Pedro was at the top of the rotation, taking the place of Peavy’s starts. As Cherington said, an ace is certainly something every team would like. And, I would certainly endorse spending every cent of John Henry’s money to get a rotation full of aces. But, since nobody has one of those at the moment, a balanced attack might just be the way to go. It worked last year.

Why not next year?

TTM Response

My TTM request to Red Sox ace Jon Lester came back recently. I’m on the fence at the moment as to whether it was a success. Here’s what I got back.

I mentioned when I first got one of these responses back from a Sox player that I hoped it wasn’t becoming the standard response. This now makes Tim Wakefield, Dustin Pedroia, Jonathan Papelbon and Jon Lester that have responded in this matter. It’s nice to get anything back, but it’s still a little cold.

I assume the signature is not real. I was fairly certain the others weren’t, so I have assumed this one isn’t as well. Frankly, the sig on the picture and the letter are a bit too identical. It’s a nice card, though, featuring a picture from the end of Lester’s no-hitter. That’s a great touch. Jere should be happy, too, since they used the new logo on the picture.

The letter is fun too. I noticed when I got the Papelbon letter that it definitely seemed to come from him, as opposed to the Wakefield version. Whether they actually helped write it or not, the Pap version used “awesome” more than the others…just like you’d expect. Again, Lester’s letter seems a bit specific to Jon. Especially the part about making us proud.

So, whether it’s a “success” or not, it’s a great and welcome addition to the collection.

Thanks Jon Lester!

Is it a Rotation, or a Revolution?

It’s just a thought. “Rotate” means to spin about an axis. “Revolution” means to complete a course by a succession of similar events. Oh well. I thought it would be fun to do a quick preview of the various parts of the 2011 Red Sox. I figured a good place to start would be the starting rotation.

I make this comparison a lot. But, only because it’s so appropriate and fun. In 1999 the Red Sox lost the ALCS. Here are the pitchers who made starts for them in the playoffs. Pedro Martinez, Bret Saberhagen, Ramon Martinez, and Kent Mercker. Really? Mercker was actually the starter for game 1 of the ALCS. How can you not be excited about this year’s crop of pitchers? Sure, Pedro was the best pitcher ever. But, if I were ranking the nine pitchers, after Pedro I’d take this year’s rotation in the next five spots. Beckett-Lester-Buchholz-Lackey-Matsuzaka. It’s certainly a thought for the rest of the league to shudder over.

Beckett is the clear ace of the staff. You can argue whether or not he’s the best pitcher. He may not start on Opening Day. But, if you’re looking for the guy who is the leader of the staff, it’s him. He’s the trendsetter. Everyone else plays off him. It may be an MVP/Player of the Year distinction. But, it’s all about Beckett. Unfortunately, he’s coming off a rough year. But, there are still plenty reasons for hope. First. He was clearly injured last season. He struggled though many starts when he didn’t have his best stuff. It was the inconsistence that was unusual to see from #19. While assuming a pitcher will be completely healthy for an entire year is always a risky idea, it’s not a crazy one. Frankly, unless it’s a 40-year old pitcher with a history of arm trouble, you have to assume healthiness. Otherwise these predictions are meaningless. So, if Beckett is healthy, is that enough? Probably. He’s a proud pitcher. He won’t want to be the third best pitcher on the staff. I expect him to work his tail off to keep up with the youngsters. Will he throw another 2007 season up there? Probably not. I’m not bold enough to predict that. But, should we expect a repeat of his 17-6, 3.86 2009 season? That certainly sounds reasonable. And, I suspect, we’d all love to see that.

If Beckett isn’t the ace, it’s John Lester. The organization has always had high hopes for Lester. He has slowly emerged as a reliable starter the last couple years. As he enters his 27-year old season, the sky is the limit. With the line-up the Red Sox have, and the bullpen behind him, 20 wins should be within reach this year for Lester. Of all the starters, it’s Lester that I feel comfortable knowing what I’m going to get.

Not quite so with Clay Buchholz. He has every ounce of talent that Lester has. He can dominate a game, or stretch of games. But, he only put it all together last year. Only seven months younger than Lester, he was beginning to run out of time. But, he managed to have it click last season. He finished the season second in the league in ERA, almost a run better than Lester, and just a tick off of the lead. That produced a fantastic 17-win season. Which just leaves the one question for Clay. Was last season a progression, or a fluke? I’m expecting a slight slip down as the rest of the league realizes who he is. But a 15-win season should be expected.

What to expect from John Lackey? If only I had any idea. I do know one thing. He’s probably the best number four guy in the league. But, is that a compliment? He had a rough season in Boston. Was it an adjustment to a new city and team? Probably. People don’t just forget how to pitch. I do think people confused “best available” with “best” when they talked about the Lackey signing. Just because he was a key free agent pitcher last off-season doesn’t mean he is a classic ace. With a year under his belt, a more normal season should be on the way.

If Lackey is the best #4 guy, Daisuke Matsuzaka has to be the best #5, right? Once again, though, I have no idea what that will mean. Anybody remember when Dice-K went 18-6 with a 2.90 ERA? I didn’t think so. But, given the ups and downs of his career, would anyone be really shocked? I didn’t think so. Ten wins from your fifth starter is a nice number, and Dice should have that number with room to spare.

Just because predictions are fun:

Beckett 18-7, 3.78

Lester 21-6, 2.93

Buchholz 16-8, 3.10

Lackey 15-9, 3.87

Matsuzaka 13-7, 4.36

Lester is More

So, that’s why people in the Red Sox organization were split on whether Lester or Papelbon was the better prospect. He appears to be right on the verge of “getting it”, if he’s not there already. I know last night’s performance was against the Orioles. But, it was still a great performance. On the road, coming off an embarrassing weekend, the Sox needed a quality start from Lester. They got even more than that. He went seven inning of 1-run ball. Even more impressive are the four hits and one walk. Lester has been keeping his walks down so much lately, I almost feel funny mentioning them. It’s starting to become the norm, as opposed to something to be excited about.

This brings Lester’s record to 5-1 following a Red Sox loss. His ERA in those situations is well below 2.00. I know that many of those situations aren’t “we need a stopper” games, but it sure does help to stop a losing streak of any length. If momentum really is tomorrow’s starting pitcher, I like seeing Lester’s name in the boxscore.

Have I reached the point this season where I’m more confident going into a Lester start than I am with a Beckett start? I’m pretty close. I’m still at the point where I assume a good Beckett outing, and I hope to get a good Lester start. But, that’s starting to change. Especially on Lester’s end. That’s really what separates the elite pitchers from the rest of them in my book. When Beckett, or Schilling, take the mound, you expect a good outing, and know the Sox should be in a good position to get the win. When vintage Pedro took the mound, you knew the Sox would win. When Lester or Dice-K take the mound of late, I’m not quite at the “expect” a good outing stage. I’m pretty sure it’ll be a good. But, if they blow up I’m not shocked. If Beckett blows up I’m shocked. If vintage Pedro blew up, I feared injury. It’s the difference in pitchers that makes one an ace, and others top pitchers. Lester’s not an ace yet…Beckett’s pretty close…but he sure should be soon.

This weekend displayed a glaring weakness of the Sox entering the stretch run. For some reason, they can’t figure out how to beat Toronto. Now, some of that is the presence of Halladay. Some of that is Burnett. I get that. The problem is that the Sox face the Blue Jays nine times from here on out. It’s not easy to make up a 4.5 division gap, or hold a 1.5 game wild card lead if you’re playing 25% of your games against a team you can’t seem to beat. Add to those nine games six against the Yankees that you just know they’re going to split and six against Tampa that are up in the air. This could get pretty dicey. Frankly, their entire remaining schedule scares the crud out of me. In addition to the games I just mentioned, they have the rest of the Baltimore series, they have three against division leading Chicago. Then three more against Baltimore, three at Texas, and four against Cleveland. Not many places to make up much ground. Yikes. Tampa Bay better remember that they’re Tampa Bay pretty darn quickly. A quick estimate puts an optimistic 23-14 finish for the Sox. That puts them at 95-67, which is a dang good mark. But, that means the Rays only need a 20-18 finish. Ick. If Beckett continues to struggle, this could be a long September.

Fan Mail

I just restarted a little activity I had gotten away from for a bit: writing to Red Sox players asking for autographs. It’s a fun little pastime that combines two things I enjoy, namely the Red Sox and getting mail. It’s fairly simple. I just write a letter to a player in care of the Red Sox (or whichever team the player is currently playing for), include a baseball card (or other small item like a sticker) and a SASE, and ask for an autograph. Sometimes, the player actually sends something back. Most of the time, I never hear anything again. Sometimes I get a nice form letter explaining why they can’t sign anything. Sometimes I get something other than what I sent, signed. And, sometimes they actually sign the card I send. It’s a little bit of a gambling rush when the envelope comes back in the mail. Which category is it going to be? Naturally, there are things that can be done to improve my odds. Generally, I don’t try the stars. Manny and Ortiz get way too much mail to even bother opening most of it. So, they’re out if I want a signature. Although, if I just want something, they might still be an option. For example, I hear Cal Ripken always sent a nice “Drink Milk” card of himself along with a form letter explaining how busy he was. Tony Gwynn apparently used to respond with a copy of his entry in the SD Padres media guide. Those would have still been pretty cool to get. Naturally, these things have no actual value. I have no idea who actually signed any of the things the players send. It could be the player, or a clubhouse boy. I have heard of some players having their girlfriends sign things for them. But, they look nice sitting on a shelf so it’s OK by me.

This week I sent a letter out to Tim Wakefield and Jon Lester. We’ll see what happens. I’ve heard that Wake only signs for charities. So, my main hope from him is some literature on a charity. But, I’ll see.

Has anyone else tried for autographs through the mail? Any successes or failures you’d like to share?

Lester throws a No-Hitter!

Even more proof that you never know what to expect when you go to the ballpark. One day after staff ace Josh Beckett struggles his way through a victory, inconsistent #4 starter Jon Lester comes out and throws a no-hitter. Incredible. We’re getting a little spoiled around there as far as no-hitters go. After going almost 40 years without having a no-no at Fenway, we’ve now had three in less than ten. We better not start expecting them.

This marks the second straight no-hitter baseball wide to be thrown by a Red Sox pitcher under 25 years old. The farm system “machine” that Theo talked about appears to be in full swing. You can always use young pitching, and the Sox look to have lots of it.

Jason Varitek has now caught four no-hitters…the most ever. I know that no-hitter are fairly fluky, and hit-or-miss…but that has to be more than coincidence, right?

Speaking of fluky no-hitters, how odd is it that Lester has one, Hideo Nomo has two, and Pedro never got one?

Only Lester could throw a no-hitter while walking only two, and still chuck up 130 pitches. Even while dominating, he’s throwing as many pitches as he can. Maybe that’s just him?

There’s another example of the Yankee-Red Sox role reversal. It the late nineties, the Yankees were winning the division every year, and their pitchers were throwing no-hitters left and right. Doc Gooden, David Cone, David Wells all pushed across no-nos in those years. And here the Red Sox are with four no-hitters since 2001, and they’re the class of the league. Once again, is it coincidence?

Congratulations Jon!

Schilling's Shoulder

It looks like the sports gods were tired of all this “Boston, the Hub of Sports” talk that was running around. So, in one week they took down the Patriots and knocked off the Sox number three starter. Just how bad this latest news in depends on how wide of an angle you use to look at it. It’s probably safe to assume that Curt won’t be pitching in any sort of useful capacity this season. He may make it back for a late season push, but I don’t know how much I want to expect from a rusty old pitcher late in the season after shoulder problems. So, what does that mean?

Quick view, it puts Buchholz into the forefront. He would appear the front runner for the now vacant number five starter. Assuming the Sox don’t use Coco to grab a starter, that puts the rotation at Beckett-DiceK-Wakefield-Lester-Buchholz. Not a bad rotation. The Sox have made the playoffs with rotations much worse. I have no problem going into opening day with that. After all, Schilling only gave us 9 wins last year. I can feel comfortable with Clay approaching that total. So, narrow view, not a huge deal to part with Curt.
Slightly larger picture. Buchholz was supposed to be the insurance police in case Curt or Wake needed time off during the season. He’s no longer available for that. So, if Wakefield needs some rest or recovery, we’re down to Snyder. We’re also more likely to see Snyder take some starts since the Sox are still going to be careful with Clay. They’ll want to be able to give him extra rest whenever possible to avoid killing his young arm. So, losing whatever starts Curt would have taken, exposes more starts for Snyder. Is that a big deal? Probably not. They'll figure out some way to rest the youngsters, and still throw a starting pitcher out there every day. Frankly, baseball doesn't have enough good teams to worry about and inconsistant fifth starter.

That leaves the playoffs. With Beckett as the ace, that hides a lot of probelms. Curt would have been nice, but he's really not required. The way Lester handled himself in '07 was great.

Basically, it's too bad since the Sox are already paying for him. But, this certainly doesn't crush the Sox chances this year. Nothing that dramatic. It might even be a good thing if Clay can emerge and show us all that he deserves to be in the rotation anyway.