Clay Buchholz Live

With Clay Buchholz's trade to the Philadelphia Phillies a few weeks ago, my guess is this ends my chances of seeing him pitch in Fenway again. Oh, sure. The Phillies come to Fenway every now and then, but I figure the chances of both me being at the game and Clay pitching are dwindling. So, I thought it would be fun to see how Clay fared in games I scored during his career. 

Here we go.

The first thing I noticed is that I didn't see many Buchholz starts. Sure seems like I was seeing him every other time I went to Fenway. But, there is is in black and white. A mere seven games.

How did he do in those seven games? About how you'd expect Clay to do. The enigma that was Clay Buchholz displayed in seven games. He dominated one game. Got lit up in two. Was "meh" in the other four. That led to an ERA over six in games I scored, while giving up almost two baserunners an inning. Not exactly Pedro-esque.

Which is, I suppose, why he's in Philadelphia right now. Not as many shutouts as he should have had with all his talent. Too many starts of less than five innings.

But boy, that April 8th start was something.

How did Clay Buchholz do in games you attended?

Clay Motion

The Clay Buchholz Era officially ended in Boston today when he was dealt to the Philadelphia Phillies. While many say this move coming, or at least one like it, I'm still a little surprised by it.

For starters, I was never as down on Clay as many others were. Sure, it was frustrating at times when he was injured. But, everyone gets injured. Dustin Pedroia has missed huge chinks of time before. It happens. Sure, he sometimes had rough games. But, he also had really good games. Some people didn't care for his post game interviews. I didn't really care about them. Telling the truth is never a bad thing in my book. 

But, even beyond my personal feelings, I thought the Red Sox liked Clay. Especially at his contract. His number on the field have almost always been better than the numbers on his contract. I always thought that was a good thing. Exactly the sort of value the Red Sox would be looking for. Especially since they just picked up his option not that long ago.

So, to see them send him off in a salary dump for a 24-year old guy in A-ball seemed weird. Now, maybe things have changed since they picked up the option. Maybe if they had to do it all over again knowing what they now know, they would have just passed in the first place. Maybe they figure getting a warm body is better than not. Maybe the luxury tax thing is a huge deal to them, instead of a minor annoyance. 

Maybe.

But, it also seems to me that the Sox could still use Clay. For one thing, he looked like a pretty good option out of the pen last season.That could be a weapon if developed properly. Or, who knows when you'll need another experienced pitcher for a spot start. I didn't think that his contract was big enough to stop the Red Sox from keeping him around for uses like that.

Because, sure fans were tired of him. Sure fans can irrationally harp on the weirdest things sometimes. Sure they can go on and on about trust issues, or performance anxiety. But, the Sox don't usually care about that. 

So, if the Sox had gotten a prospect back, that would be one thing. Something to restock their cache of prospects they lost in the other deals. Even if that meant eating some of the salary. That was the move I was expecting. Or, adding him to a package to get a better deal. That's where I saw him going.

But, just as a flat out 100% salary dump? That one surprises me. 

Now, if you tell me that the salary dump is a really important move? If this trade frees you up to do all sorts of things this year and/or in the future? If you mean it? I can go along with ridding the team of someone who didn't have a real role in order to do it.

But, on the surface, I think the Red Sox would have been a better team with Clay around than they are without him.

The move was a bit of a surprise.

On to Game Two

OK. That was not exactly the result we were all looking for last night. But, naturally, all is not lost. Just one game is.

I'm not even going to bother reminding you that the Indians have traditionally coughed up series leads to the Red Sox. Mostly because that doesn't really matter, but also because you already know. 

What does matter? The fact that there's a reason the Red Sox were favored by most to not only win this series, but the American League itself. They're simply the better team. So, winning three out of the next four isn't nearly as daunting as it would be the other way around.

Specifics about the series as it stands? Yes the Indians won the first game. But, they ran through their bullpen. Andrew Miller shut down the Sox last night. Tonight? He may be able to face a batter. So, if the Sox can get out early, the Indians will be unable to stop them. If they don't? Not sure the Indians will be able to hold them back either.

The starting rotations still favor the Red Sox going forward. Say what you want about David Price in the postseason. But, he has pitched well before. And he's been pitching fantastic down the stretch. There's also the need to remember what ERA means. ERA is based on nine innings. So, a 9.00 ERA means a pitcher would give up nine runs in nine innings. But, Price won't be going nine innings. So, even if he stinks up the joint, and pitchers to a five or seven ERA tonight...that means he gives up fewer actual runs. For instance four runs in five innings, is a terrible start. That would work out to a 7.20 ERA. But, it would only amount to four runs. The Sox should be able to cover that. Heck, last night Porcello's stinker gave him an ERA over ten. And the Sox were right in it. So, don't worry about Price. Even your worst fears aren't all that scary when you're only looking at one game against an opposing starter who was pushed back due to injury.

After that? I know everyone likes to rag on Buchholz. But, he's been pitching wonderfully. And, it's not like Tomlin is an ace in the making. Then ERod would pitch against the guy the Sox just knocked out of the game last night. Hopefully with a less rested bullpen. Worst case? Porcello comes back in game five. Have to assume he got his stinker out of the way last night.

Yes, the Sox didn't win. The Indians bullpen gave them troubles. But, now they're done. The bullpen will never be that rested again. They'll never be that unfamiliar again. Chances are they won't be getting those strike calls again.

The Sox wanted one of the two in Cleveland so they could try to clinch at home. If they get the win tonight, that's exactly what they'll have.

And things will look even rosier.

Green Grass

There's an old saying that applies to the Red Sox these days. "The grass is always greener on the other side of fence. Until you get there, and see that it's artificial turf"

That quote has come to mind a lot lately. Especially as it applies to the Red Sox pitching staff. Now, I'll bet the first to admit that the staff did not exactly shower itself in excellence this weekend. Maybe even the past week. But, some of the tweets I saw made me think that people just don't get it. "We can't win meaningful games with this bullpen!" "This rotation is killing us!" "If this rotation doesn't improve, the Sox can't win anything."

Now, again, I'm not saying the pitching staff is perfect. It's the "can't win" portion of those comments that get to me. Let's take a look at the situation that the Red Sox currently find themselves in. They sit in a virtual tie for first place in the American League East, a mere .003 behind the Orioles. They have the second most wins in the American League, one behind the Rangers. So, clearly, they can win with this pitching staff. In fact, since they have put Clay Buchholz in the bullpen and Joe Kelly in the minors, some would say the rotation is actually better than it was with them in it. So, they have won games with a rotation worse than what they have now. They have also won games with the bullpen they currently have. A lot of games. More than almost anyone else in the league. So, why do people think they "can't win"? 

Are they focused on the "meaningful" portion of the tweets? I'd argue that since more than a third of the season is gone, the fact that they're still at the top of the division is very meaningful. I'd say that two months of wins have meaning. 

So, are you talking about the Playoffs? September? Are those the "meaningful" ones? Well, so far the Sox have played six games against Cleveland, and seven against Baltimore. So, the other teams that would be in the playoffs have made up almost a quarter of the Red Sox schedule thus far. I'd say the fact that they're still putting up wins is a good sign. And if you want to get really specific and say that the playoffs are all that matter, the pen and rotation will be much different. Joe Kelly won't start in the playoffs. So, the fact that he imploded won't affect the rotation in "meaningful" games. 

So, yes. The Red Sox staff has had a rough stretch. There have been a few garbage outings. But, if you're saying it's going to kill the Sox when Koji sometimes has a bad inning, then you're never going to be happy. Could he blow a playoff game? Of course he could. So could Kimbrel. Jonathan Papelbon threw a terrible game once. Marino Rivera blew two saves in two playoff games on the same day. Sometimes people have bad innings. Since the Sox are at the top of the league, clearly other teams are having bad innings too. And bad games. And bad stretches. It happens. It happens to the Sox. It happens to the Orioles. It happens to the Cubs. The good teams overcome the bad spots. Just like the Sox have overcome theirs.

So having a bad inning in May doesn't not mean the team can't win with that pitcher. Or group of pitchers. 

Especially when you can clearly see that they have been doing exactly that.

For the past two months.

Buchholz in the Bullpen

Yes, I know I’m a bit late to the game here. But, I’ve been trying to wait and see just how this was all going to play out. I’m still not sure I know, but here it goes anyway.

As you’re all well aware, Clay Buchholz was demoted to the bullpen recently. It came as a bit of a surprise to me. Oh sure, he hasn’t exactly been pitching well. But, I didn’t think the Sox would put him in the pen.

For one thing, a good starter is more valuable to the team than a good reliever. The Red Sox management has often answered questions about struggling players by saying that the best thing for the team is to get that player performing well. Not replace him with an inferior player. I fully expected this to be the case with Clay. The Sox would realize that the best thing for the Red Sox is to get Clay back to pitching to his peak levels. Sending him to the bullpen doesn’t help achieve that. If anything it probably makes it more difficult.

That’s the confusing thing to me. What’s the plan now?

Could Clay become a good relief pitcher? Absolutely. Baseball history is littered with mediocre starters becoming elite relievers. Whether it’s the fact that you need fewer pitchers in the pen, or the fact that you only need to stay together mechanically for a shorter timeframe. It’s certainly plausible that Clay takes this new role and runs with it. He put in a good inning the first chance he got, after all. In addition, the fact that Clay volunteered to pitcher earlier than the coaching staff thought he would is a good sign of him accepting the role. (Although, it did smell a bit of the Red Sox going out of their way to make a guy that the media has been killing look good.)

But, that’s sort of another issue. Whether Clay can pitch from the pen isn’t as important as the question of whether he should.

Have they given up on Clay as a starter? Because the longer he pitches as a reliever, the longer it’s going to take him to work back into the rotation. Are they expecting him to prove himself in the pen and earn his spot back? How would that go, exactly? Much like when they claimed Panda could earn his spot back, hard to earn your spot when you’re not playing enough to perform well. If Clay pitches ten scoreless innings out of the pen, does that mean he earns his starting job back…or that he’s perfectly suited to be a reliever?

Did Clay have trade value? Because he doesn’t have any now. Anyone who was thinking the could fix him isn’t going to try anymore. Even if they knew his problem, stretching him back out into a starting role would take too long to make it worth their time. So, does this move mean the Sox tried to trade him somewhere, and struck out everywhere?

You’d think, then, that this is a season-long commitment from them. Unless more injuries strike, Clay is going to be in the pen. He’ll be the long guy/ mop up guy. I’d say it’s a waste of his talent, but he wasn’t getting the most out of it anyway.

As long as the pitchers currently in the rotation perform well, it doesn’t really matter where Clay is. If you have five pitchers doing well, he wasn’t going to help them anyway. And maybe that’s what the Red Sox assume is going to happen.

I was just surprised.

Clay Threw the Ball Really Well Last Night

After all, he said so himself. People seem to have a problem with that, for some reason. People seem to see comments like that as a lack of responsibility. Somehow saying "I sucked" is taking responsibility for a poor performance. While saying "I pitched well overall, just need to stop giving up key hits" is somehow not. Like he's claiming it was luck or something. Or that giving credit to the hitter somehow removes it from himself. Of course, when the Red Sox hitter hits a pitcher's pitch, we're willing to say that Hanley took a good pitch and deposited it in the bullpen. But, we can't seem to do anything but blame Clay when he thinks someone hit one of his pitches. 

I'm not sure of the disconnect.

Sure, some of it is perception. It always used to bug me when someone would strike out swinging against Dice-K, everyone would say that the batter helped him out by swinging at a ball. If the batter does that against Pedro, it's because Pedro got him to swing at a ball. Dice-K was lucky. Pedro was nasty.

But, I also wonder if it's a throwback to blaming the pitchers for everything. For so long, walks were a strike against a pitcher. They couldn't throw the ball over the plate. Only recently has the term "drawing a walk" become a positive for the hitter. Only recently has it seemed like it was something they could actually control. On Base Percentage has become a quantifiable stat, not an accident. 

Is Clay falling victim to that? It's not something that the hitter did. He didn't somehow put the ball in play on the perfect pitch. The hitter didn't do a great job and capitalize on the slightest mistake. Clay can't certainly claim that to be the case. Even if he made the perfect pitch, if it resulted in a home run we want him to say it was the wrong pitch. That he screwed up. It's the pitcher's fault, not the hitter's excellence.

And, we certainly don't want him to point out that a bad game can be the result of a very small number of mistakes. Especially if he doesn't admit that they were his mistake. 

Now, sure. Pedro used to say that if a fielder made an error, it was his fault. He allowed the batter to make contact with the pitch. Pedro would have thought that any hit he gave up was due to a lack of his execution. But, Clay's not Pedro. Nobody is. 

Perhaps it's unfair to expect him to be.

It’s Not Clay’s Fault You’re Insecure

People seem to have a problem with Clay Buchholz. Some of it I understand. He’s a talented pitcher. Perhaps the most talented on the staff. But, he can’t quite put it all together at once. That frustrates people. I get that.

What I don’t get is this constant waiting for him to fail.

You hear it every time he pitches. If he gets the first batter out, nobody’s happy. “When’s he giving up his home run?” twitter asks. When he does give up a home run, it’s “see, I knew it was coming.” After a rough outing, it’s just what they expected. After a gem like last night, people rush to point out that they don’t trust it. 

Of course you don’t trust it. That’s why he’s not going to the Hall of Fame. Has there been a pitcher you “trusted” since Pedro? Any one of them could throw a stinker. As someone who had Curt Schilling on a fantasy team, I can’t tell you how often he would be cruising along only to get whacked around to turn a dominant performance into a mediocre one. Same with Lester when he was on my team. Pitchers have good days, and they have bad days. They have good innings, they have bad ones. It’s what happens. But, for Clay we have this obsession with “trust”.

It’s even gotten to the point where we’re tilting the numbers against him. Did you know the Sox were winless in his starts before last night? I must have heard it about 1000 times. Of course, people ignore the dominant game he had to put the Sox in position for a win before Koji and Kimbrel (two pitchers we “trust”) coughed up the lead and blew the game. They ignore that his numbers are better than Price’s (another pitcher we apparently “trust”)

When it comes down to it, who cares if we trust him or not? He’s either going to pitch well, or he’s not. My trust is going to have very little to do with the outcome. 

So, people were saying he was pitching for his job last night. Since we didn’t trust him, he needed to be pushed out of the rotation when Rodriguez comes back. So, we “trust” eDRo? Do we “trust” Joe Kelly? Did we suddenly start “trusting” Wright, a knuckleballer? We never trusted Wakefield, if I remember correctly.

So, Clay pitched an amazing game last night. Has he “turned a corner”? I have no idea. I do know, however, that I keep waiting for him to fail, he’s always going to do it at some point. But, here’s the thing. If I keep waiting for him to pitch well, he’s going to do that at some point too. 

Just for fun, next time Clay pitches, treat him like he’s David Price. Assume if he gives up a run that he’ll recover. If he sets the side down in order, assume he’ll do it again. Sure, you’ll be wrong at some point. But, you were wrong at some point before too.

This way is just more fun.

Keeping Clay

Right off the bat, the Red Sox front office start the offseason with a good move. In fact, it’s such an obviously correct move, I almost have a hard time giving them credit for it.

What did they do? They picked up Clay Buchholz’s $13 million option. Oh sure. I know what you’re thinking. He’s always hurt. He’s so frustrating. You can’t depend on him. He’ll never make it through a full season. He’s gutless. 

All of those may, or may not, be true. But there’s one reason why this was a no-brainer.

Justin Masterson.

Last offseason the Red Sox signed Masterson to a one-year deal. There wasn’t a ton expected from him. But, he had shown flashes of effectiveness in the past, and there was a hope he could do it again. With that in mind, the Sox went into in with low expectations. He wasn’t promised a starting role at the time, and ended up only starting half the games he appeared in for the Sox. He was a true shot in the dark, so the Sox gave him a contract that was actually lower than what he played for the year before.

They gave him $9.5 million.

There’s your comparison. A fifth starter/long reliever looking to regain some respect got $9.5 million to not pitch very well in 18 games for the Sox.

Buchholz, on the other hand, is coming off a season where he made 18 starts for the Sox, to a tune of a 3.26 ERA. Yeah, that was the lowest of all the Red Sox starting pitchers.

A simple comparison of Masterson’s 60 innings of 5.61 ERA to Buchholz’s 113 innings on 3.26 ERA makes it an obvious choice. 

And that’s before considering any sort of “potential.” Oh, sure, most people are tired of waiting for Clay to be the ace his talent says he should be. But, those people ignore the fact that he’s already sort of done it. He was an all-star a couple times. He’s pitched over 170 innings three times. His season ERA has been under 3.50 as often as it’s been over it. 

No. Those are not “ace” numbers. But, they’re not a guy who has the talent but never put it all together. He has the talent, and has put it together…just not all the time. There’s a difference.

But, as I said, this was a good move even without counting all that. Even if you get the 2015 Clay Buchholz again, he’s worth $13 million. If you’re the type of person who wants the Sox to go get a true ace, you’re only looking at Clay to be, what, the #4 starter behind ace, Porcello, and Miley? Sure, he’s taking up a spot that could be filled by a kid. But, remember when you said Clay doesn’t make it through a season? There’s the chance to get the kids back in. Or, there’s your chance to trade some of the kids. Who knows? 

The only thing that matters is that picking up his option was a good idea. It’s a cost effective way to secure a talented starter who will give you at least the production you got last year from a guy you were paying almost as much for. The Sox couldn’t not pick him up.

Even if it’s only to trade him to the NL.

Playing with Personality

Rick Porcello won his first game in, like, a year last night. Some wondered if that would be the game he finally came around because it would be the first one in a while with Ryan Hanigan behind the plate. There was speculation that the return of that comfort zone might be enough to snap Porcello out of it. Which it was.

If course, that ignited the long-standing debate over personal catchers, and whether pitchers should just be able to throw any catcher. Which, of course, they should be able to. In a perfect world, the pitcher should just be able to put the same level of comfort and trust into any catcher the Boston Red Sox deem worth of putting into the line-up.

Really, that should apply to any issue of player comfort. A batter should be able to hit in any part of the order. A reliever should just come in whenever his name is called. They’ve been telling them that since Little League. You do what you need to do.

But, that’s the big distinction. The Red Sox aren’t in Little League. They aren’t in the business of making better players. They’re in the business of winning games with the players they currently have. So, they owe it to themselves, and their fans, to put the team in the best position to win each and every night.

Sometimes that means putting players in spots or roles where they’re most comfortable.

So, sure, in Little League a coach might tell Clay Buchholz that he’ll be throwing to whichever catcher is back there. He needs to learn how to deal with the different circumstances. He’s young. He’ll be better served if he learns to adapt. Which might be the difference. As a high schooler, or even a college kid, it’s all about the player showing a team what they can do. You want to show that you can throw to any color chest protector. But that all reverses once he’s in the majors. Now it’s all about the team dealing with what it has.

So, would it be nice if everyone was Brock Holt? Of course. Imagine if every player could just wake up, see which position he’s playing that day, and just go hit. But, there’s a reason why Brock is such a great story. That doesn’t happen all the time. So, with the rest of the players, they have a choice. They can just tell everyone they’re going to change things up all the time and deal with the lack of production that results from it, or they can put players in their best position and get the benefits of increased production.

Other businesses do it. You don’t tell a layer who’s shy and quiet to go into the courtroom. Sure, any lawyer should do whatever you ask of them. But, that’s not putting your firm in the best position for success. It’s the same with baseball.

So, you can wish that Clay or Rick didn’t feel better with one catcher over another. You can hope that Pablo Sandoval can switch between first base and third base effortlessly. You can hope that Dustin Pedroia hits as well no matter where in the line-up you put him.

Or, you can accept that players are humans with their own set of preferences and quirks. You can accept that some players are better suited for different things. Then, you can assemble your team based on getting the most out of every player on the roster.

Wouldn’t that make the most sense?

Do The Sox Need an Ace?

The debate has been going on ever since the Sox sent Jon Lester out west. The fire was fueled more recently by comments by Cherington saying that an ace is nice to have, but wasn’t going to be the sole focus of this team. That sounds like a pretty sound strategy to me. But, it didn’t stop the questions. What are the Sox going to do next year without an ace?

My favorite part of that question is that it’s the first time that I’ve almost universally heard Lester referred to as an ace. But, that’s another matter.

Or, is it?

I guess this whole thing hinges on what you call an ace. Does every team have an ace? Personally, I say no. Sure, everyone has an ace of their staff. For instance, the Sox ace right now is probably Clay Buchholz. But, in every five man ranking, someone has to be on top. Even if only by default. That doesn’t make Clay an “ace.” In the last 20 years or so, I’d say the Sox have only had one ace. Unless you count Beckett for one season…or maybe just the postseason. To me when your ace pitches, you expect to win. When Pedro pitched, I expected the Sox to win. When Pedro got a lead, he didn’t give it up. If the Sox lost four in a row, the streak ended with Pedro. You almost didn’t have to watch the game, unless it was to see what record he might set. Contrast that with someone like Curt Schilling, or Lester himself. When they pitched, I knew the Sox had a good shot. Depending on the opposing pitcher, maybe a really good shot. Curt would keep the Sox in the game and give them a chance to win. With Pedro? I didn’t care who the opposing pitcher was. Pedro didn’t keep the Sox in the game. He kept the opposing team out of the game.

So, can the Sox win the World Series without an ace? Of course. They just did it last year. The Giants have done it a couple times. Is it better if you have an ace? Absolutely. But, as Cherington pointed out, you need the rest of the team too.

Remember Pedro’s glory years? The Pedro-Saberhagen led rotation? Pedro was such an ace that he almost carried those teams to the World Series himself. Almost. But, he needed a team around him. Even Pedro. In those years, I often wondered if teams were better off in the playoffs throwing their worst pitchers against Pedro. He was going to lose anyway. Why not save their best pitcher to actually get a win against someone else. Imagine if the Indians had shifted Colon off Pedro.

Which is sort of what an ace-less staff would do. Say the Sox went out this offseason and spent on a big ace. Lester, if he’s suddenly an ace. Or Scherzer. Or whatever they can get. But, then are left with Clay and three youngsters to finish it off. Sure, the guy at the top would win most of his starts. But, the Sox would lose most of the others. What if, instead, the Sox filled their staff with #2 caliber pitchers? Instead of overpaying for an ace, they filled the entire staff with really good pitchers. As you go through the season, you’d be facing another team’s 1-2-3-4-5 rotation, but countering that with a 2-2-3-3-4. So, if you go on paper…1 beats 2, 2 beats 3 and so on…In those five games, the Sox would go 3-2, assuming you split the 2-2 and 3-3 games. That’s better than 1-4.

And, that’s assuming that they go as they would on paper. But, was John Lackey the ace of the Red Sox last season? I’m thinking “no.” But, did he beat the aces of other teams? I’m thinking “yes.” He even took down a couple true aces along the way in Price and Verlander. Would the Pedro-Saberhagen rotation have been able to do that? If Pedro wasn’t facing them? Doubt it. But, because the Sox rotation had balance instead of being top-heavy they were able to beat three teams in the playoffs that had pitchers who might have been true aces.

Naturally, I’m not saying the Sox would have been worse off last year if ’99-’00 Pedro was at the top of the rotation, taking the place of Peavy’s starts. As Cherington said, an ace is certainly something every team would like. And, I would certainly endorse spending every cent of John Henry’s money to get a rotation full of aces. But, since nobody has one of those at the moment, a balanced attack might just be the way to go. It worked last year.

Why not next year?

Rays of Clay

Tonight will be a huge game. For so many teams, for so many reasons.

For the Red Sox, this could be the “not quite nail” game. The Rays have to be entering the series hoping that a sweep will get them to at least within striking distance of the division. If the Sox win at least one game during the series, the effect on the division lead will be minimal at best. So, if the Sox can get that game right off the bat, the whole dynamic of the series will change. Will the hopes and effectiveness of the Rays change along with it?

Bigger picture, will be the return of Clay Buchholz. What is he? What can he do? How can he pitch? Is he the not-so-secret weapon for the Sox down the stretch? Can he be an effective starter? What we’re looking at is the best team in the league adding its best starter after a long absence. Does that ever happen? While you could claim that the Sox haven’t missed him in the months he’s been out, you certainly don’t have to look very far to see that he could be useful. The Sox have been winning some games in spite of his replacements, as opposed to because of them. If he can come back and be the Clay of April it helps the rotation, it helps the bullpen, and it helps the team. A lot. So, tonight will be a big step towards seeing what this team will look like down the road.

My only fear for the series? The mismatch of urgency. While the Rays HAVE to win, the Sox really don’t. If the Sox don’t win tonight, a win tomorrow will be just as good. If they lose the first two, winning the third will be just fine. And, if they get swept? While it would be annoying, it would still leave them with a 4.5 game lead in the division with 14 games remaining. While this team hasn’t shown any signs of falling into that trap, the return of Clay might be just the thing. Hopefully they won’t relax not that their ace is back. Hopefully they won’t be so focused on changing the way they play to accommodate him and his reentrance to the rotation, that it affects other areas.

Like I said, I don’t expect that to happen. With so many people who have been on the team for a few years, I would be shocked if it did happen. But, if I needed to pick one thing, that would be it. Thankfully the Sox know that too.

Which is why they’re trying hard to take this series.

Clay Buchholz isn’t Patrice Bergeron

Which, I suppose, is a good thing. The Sox have very little use for a defensive minded forward.

I get it. Buchholz is missing a ton of time because he slept on his shoulder funny, while Bergeron played in game seven six after being decapitated. But the question nobody asks is, “How many of Bergeron’s passes during that game seven came within one inch of their intended target?” How about six inches? A foot? Was he ever asked to dump the puck into a one foot square area of ice? Was he asked to do it 100 times? I didn’t think so. That’s a pretty important question. And, here’s another one. Can we admit that there’s a difference between a game of precision, and a game of force?

How about this. You’re lying on the operating table. The surgeon holds up the scalpel before making her incision. You can see it’s a little nicked up. Do you ask for a replacement? Or do you tell her to go ahead because you used a knife that was a little nicked up when you cut your steak the day before?

So, maybe we need to stop getting on someone’s case when they are out of action a little longer than people think. We can stop the “If I missed work every time I had a stiff neck…” comparisons. There are different situations, and different expectations. Why is that so hard to understand?

But, I hear, we’re paying these guys to be in the line-up. They should play through pain! Oh really? Didn’t John Lackey pitch through pain a couple years ago? How did that work? Oh right. He was constantly ridiculed as he put up the worst season any pitcher has ever had. Good thing he manned up and pitched through all that pain, eh? How about the Curt Schilling example. Game one of the 2004 ALCS. His ankle was injured, sure. But it worked, and didn’t hurt. It had been numbed or whatever it was. The only issue was that he could feel (and maybe even hear) the tendon flicking as he pitched. So, it was really just a mental block. But, he toughed it out. He had what he called the worst bullpen session of his career. But, he toughed it out. He did what he was paid to do. He went out there, and gave up six runs in three innings. The Sox lost the game, and it probably should have cost them the series. Only a couple Mariano Rivera choke jobs saved Schilling from being the series goat. Wouldn’t it have been better if Schilling had backed down? Sent someone else in his place? Didn’t toughing it out hurt the team?

Of course, lots of people play hurt with no noticeable effects. Right? “Everybody’s banged up this time of year.” If Johnny Damon or Dustin Pedroia can play at an elite level while battling nagging injuries, why can’t everyone else? OK, another couple examples. Your kid claims he’s sick, and can’t go to school. Or his foot hurts, so he has to miss church. Then, you turn around and he’s chasing his brother in a game of tag with no noticeable limp. Do your eyes well up with pride as you realize what a tough little guy you have on your hands? Or do you yell, “Well, you certainly don’t seem hurt to me! Get your church clothes on!” Or, when those news programs secretly record people on disability performing physical tasks, do they report on all these heroic people manning up and going through their lives? Or is the report that these people don’t seem injured, and must be faking the injury in a scam? Isn’t it possible that all these people who are constantly playing at a high level despite all these injuries they keep telling us about are just whiney? When Johnny Damon goes on and on about his sore hamstrings, but then steals two bases, is it possible that his hammy didn’t hurt as much as he thought it did? Maybe it’s not a high threshold for pain, but rather a high sensitivity to pain?

So, maybe we need to just get off everyone’s case. Maybe these players will all come back when they can help the team. Maybe we can stop saying that 75% of so and so is better than his replacement. It’s hardly ever true. Maybe we can patiently wait for these players to actually heal.

Maybe we can focus on results?

Is it a Rotation, or a Revolution?

It’s just a thought. “Rotate” means to spin about an axis. “Revolution” means to complete a course by a succession of similar events. Oh well. I thought it would be fun to do a quick preview of the various parts of the 2011 Red Sox. I figured a good place to start would be the starting rotation.

I make this comparison a lot. But, only because it’s so appropriate and fun. In 1999 the Red Sox lost the ALCS. Here are the pitchers who made starts for them in the playoffs. Pedro Martinez, Bret Saberhagen, Ramon Martinez, and Kent Mercker. Really? Mercker was actually the starter for game 1 of the ALCS. How can you not be excited about this year’s crop of pitchers? Sure, Pedro was the best pitcher ever. But, if I were ranking the nine pitchers, after Pedro I’d take this year’s rotation in the next five spots. Beckett-Lester-Buchholz-Lackey-Matsuzaka. It’s certainly a thought for the rest of the league to shudder over.

Beckett is the clear ace of the staff. You can argue whether or not he’s the best pitcher. He may not start on Opening Day. But, if you’re looking for the guy who is the leader of the staff, it’s him. He’s the trendsetter. Everyone else plays off him. It may be an MVP/Player of the Year distinction. But, it’s all about Beckett. Unfortunately, he’s coming off a rough year. But, there are still plenty reasons for hope. First. He was clearly injured last season. He struggled though many starts when he didn’t have his best stuff. It was the inconsistence that was unusual to see from #19. While assuming a pitcher will be completely healthy for an entire year is always a risky idea, it’s not a crazy one. Frankly, unless it’s a 40-year old pitcher with a history of arm trouble, you have to assume healthiness. Otherwise these predictions are meaningless. So, if Beckett is healthy, is that enough? Probably. He’s a proud pitcher. He won’t want to be the third best pitcher on the staff. I expect him to work his tail off to keep up with the youngsters. Will he throw another 2007 season up there? Probably not. I’m not bold enough to predict that. But, should we expect a repeat of his 17-6, 3.86 2009 season? That certainly sounds reasonable. And, I suspect, we’d all love to see that.

If Beckett isn’t the ace, it’s John Lester. The organization has always had high hopes for Lester. He has slowly emerged as a reliable starter the last couple years. As he enters his 27-year old season, the sky is the limit. With the line-up the Red Sox have, and the bullpen behind him, 20 wins should be within reach this year for Lester. Of all the starters, it’s Lester that I feel comfortable knowing what I’m going to get.

Not quite so with Clay Buchholz. He has every ounce of talent that Lester has. He can dominate a game, or stretch of games. But, he only put it all together last year. Only seven months younger than Lester, he was beginning to run out of time. But, he managed to have it click last season. He finished the season second in the league in ERA, almost a run better than Lester, and just a tick off of the lead. That produced a fantastic 17-win season. Which just leaves the one question for Clay. Was last season a progression, or a fluke? I’m expecting a slight slip down as the rest of the league realizes who he is. But a 15-win season should be expected.

What to expect from John Lackey? If only I had any idea. I do know one thing. He’s probably the best number four guy in the league. But, is that a compliment? He had a rough season in Boston. Was it an adjustment to a new city and team? Probably. People don’t just forget how to pitch. I do think people confused “best available” with “best” when they talked about the Lackey signing. Just because he was a key free agent pitcher last off-season doesn’t mean he is a classic ace. With a year under his belt, a more normal season should be on the way.

If Lackey is the best #4 guy, Daisuke Matsuzaka has to be the best #5, right? Once again, though, I have no idea what that will mean. Anybody remember when Dice-K went 18-6 with a 2.90 ERA? I didn’t think so. But, given the ups and downs of his career, would anyone be really shocked? I didn’t think so. Ten wins from your fifth starter is a nice number, and Dice should have that number with room to spare.

Just because predictions are fun:

Beckett 18-7, 3.78

Lester 21-6, 2.93

Buchholz 16-8, 3.10

Lackey 15-9, 3.87

Matsuzaka 13-7, 4.36

I’ll Take the Fifth?

Once again, the Sox are faced with the decision on fifth starter. This was quite a debate during spring training, even though I thought it was a pretty easy call. The Sox avoided the whole issue by starting Daisuke Matsuzaka on the DL. Still, some people were surprised to see Wakefield in the 4th spot, with Buchholz in the final slot. That would seem to imply that the Sox had Clay on the hot seat, primed for bullpen duty once Dice came back. That’s why I was surprised to see comments and stories lately saying how Wake was destined to the bullpen. I didn’t think
that the Sox would have changed their mind so quickly. Last night I finally heard that the Sox hadn’t actually made that announcement officially. So, I’m left wondering what level of “official” it is. (Of course, by the time you read this, they’ve probable held a press conference making me look like an idiot.) If it’s the way it will be, I’m also left wondering when Sox management decided they were morons. There are really two questions to look over. Which pitcher, Wake or Buchh, is the better starter, and which pitcher is the better reliever. Let’s tackle the first question first.

Each pitcher pitched very well in their last start, after being less impressive previously. I did see one thing, though, that showed me yet again that Clay not quite ready for the rotation, while Wake is. Clay has a bit too much Derek Lowe in him. Lowe was the master of the unearned runs. Derek was great at getting two outs, and having an error committed behind him. He would then proceed to give up 36 straight hits, with 15 home runs. None of those runs would be earned, though, so his numbers looked great at the end of the day. Looking back, he’d go 5 innings, giving up one run, and you’d think he had a decent day. And, it would be mostly true. It wasn’t his fault that the Sox didn’t get that third out. But, at some point, doesn’t he need to be accountable for the mountain of hits he did allow? The same thing just happened to Clay. The Sox made an error in the field behind him, extending the inning. But, he didn’t stop it there. He buckled, and gave up a slew of unearned runs. Those runs still count. Contrast that with Wake’s game Sunday. The first two batters reach on an error. (Yes, one was later reversed, but you get the point) Right off the bat, runners are at first and second with nobody out, through no fault of his own. Did Wake collapse? Nope. He just went ahead and got the next three guys. I imagine two things would have happened had Clay been on the mound Sunday afternoon. First, the inning would have been an hour longer because of the throws to first base. Second, at least one of those runners would have come home. Wakefield looks more capable of being a starting pitcher to me.

The question of who belongs in the pen is also an easy one. The Sox bullpen needs help. They don’t need a long guy. They need someone who can come into the game in the eighth inning and get outs. I’m sure both pitchers would be able to do that. But, as Wake has often pointed out, the knuckleball sometimes doesn’t knuckle. Sometimes it goes in straight, and leaves the park. If that happens in the second inning, I’m fine with that. If it happens with a one-run lead in the eighth, that’s a problem. I don’t want Wake’s flutterball coming into a close game late. I’d much rather have a guy like Buchholz in that situation. With a guy on third and a small lead, at least I think Clay can concentrate on getting the ball down. He can bear down to keep the run from scoring. Wake just hopes his ball moves. Looks to me like Clay is better suited for the pen.

Frankly, Wakefield has simply earned the right to start. And, no, there isn’t a player who should have a spot he’s not good enough to have. But, this isn’t the case. Wakefield was an all-star last year for cripes sake. For all he’s done for the team, he deserves that shot at 200 wins with the Sox. If Clay wants that fifth slot, he needs to pitch so well that it’s not a question. I don’t care that he’s the starter of the future. He’s not there yet. I’m not about to say that it’s fair to Clay. But, that’s the way it goes sometimes. He’ll be in the ‘pen until another starter gets hurt, or he gets traded. Which, by the way, is the only reason having Clay in the fifth spot makes any sense. If they told Wake, look, we need to trade the kid. He has no value until he can pitch. So, we’re going to have him start the next three weeks. Once San Diego sees him consistently in the rotation, we can trade him away. Then, the spot is yours again.

Provided the kid pitches well this month.

Buchholz, Bowden Better Birds

Ok, that’s the last alliteration for a bit. Promise.

Last night’s game was much better. I get that it’s against the Orioles. But, doing exactly what you’re supposed to do is never a bad thing. If the Sox won 2-1 or 5-4, I could be worried about just beating a bad team. But, they didn’t eek out a victory. The demolished the visitors, and that’s great.

Clay Buchholz’s performance should not get lost. Sure, he had a huge lead right from the start. But, he didn’t use it. It previous starts, with previous leads, he’s struggled. I remember a similar game with a similar lead; he couldn’t even go long enough to qualify for the win. So, staying in the game for seven shutout innings is a tremendous plus for the Sox. They need him to remember he can pitch if he’s going to be the third starter in a playoff series.

It’s nice for the bats to come alive as well. Once again, I need to consider the opponent. But, any change the line-up can get to feel comfortable has to help going forward. Pedroia was in an annoying little slump. So, at the very least he can go into tonight’s game having hit two home runs the night before. His stats on the scoreboard look a little better than they did. That can’t hurt, right?
The Red Sox record stands at 80-58. They’re currently on pace for 94 wins. After 138 games last year, the Sox were 81-57, finishing with 95 wins. The annoying part is that after those 138 games last year, the Sox were only 4 games back. So, it’s not so much that the Sox have been struggling…even after the rough series in Chicago. It’s that the other teams keep winning. The Yankees won again last night. The Rangers swept a double header. So, the Sox won and not only didn’t gain in the division, but they lost a half-game in the wild card. That’s just rotten luck.

The Sox desperately need tonight’s game in the bag. That way, when the big boys come into town, the pressure won’t be as crazy. If the Sox do what I ask the rest of the way and play .500 on the road, and win the series at home they’ll finish with 95 wins.

Can’t ask for much more than that.

Schilling's Shoulder

It looks like the sports gods were tired of all this “Boston, the Hub of Sports” talk that was running around. So, in one week they took down the Patriots and knocked off the Sox number three starter. Just how bad this latest news in depends on how wide of an angle you use to look at it. It’s probably safe to assume that Curt won’t be pitching in any sort of useful capacity this season. He may make it back for a late season push, but I don’t know how much I want to expect from a rusty old pitcher late in the season after shoulder problems. So, what does that mean?

Quick view, it puts Buchholz into the forefront. He would appear the front runner for the now vacant number five starter. Assuming the Sox don’t use Coco to grab a starter, that puts the rotation at Beckett-DiceK-Wakefield-Lester-Buchholz. Not a bad rotation. The Sox have made the playoffs with rotations much worse. I have no problem going into opening day with that. After all, Schilling only gave us 9 wins last year. I can feel comfortable with Clay approaching that total. So, narrow view, not a huge deal to part with Curt.
Slightly larger picture. Buchholz was supposed to be the insurance police in case Curt or Wake needed time off during the season. He’s no longer available for that. So, if Wakefield needs some rest or recovery, we’re down to Snyder. We’re also more likely to see Snyder take some starts since the Sox are still going to be careful with Clay. They’ll want to be able to give him extra rest whenever possible to avoid killing his young arm. So, losing whatever starts Curt would have taken, exposes more starts for Snyder. Is that a big deal? Probably not. They'll figure out some way to rest the youngsters, and still throw a starting pitcher out there every day. Frankly, baseball doesn't have enough good teams to worry about and inconsistant fifth starter.

That leaves the playoffs. With Beckett as the ace, that hides a lot of probelms. Curt would have been nice, but he's really not required. The way Lester handled himself in '07 was great.

Basically, it's too bad since the Sox are already paying for him. But, this certainly doesn't crush the Sox chances this year. Nothing that dramatic. It might even be a good thing if Clay can emerge and show us all that he deserves to be in the rotation anyway.