I Scored! July 28, 2002

It's been a while since I did one of these. So, I thought it was time to take another trip in the wayback machine, and see how my scorecard looks for a game from the past. In this case, July of 2002. Things were different in Boston sports around this time. The patriots had shocked the world just over four months earlier by winning their first Super Bowl. The rest of the Boston teams were working on pretty lengthy championship droughts. So, how did this game between the Red Sox and Orioles end up? Let's see!

Seriously, how did I survive with a scorecard that has 16 batting positions, but only nine innings and four pitchers spots? No wonder I made my own.

But, how did the Sox do it this game? Pretty well it appears. You can just see all the black on their card. Derek Lowe starting things off strong for the Sox. While Time Wakefield struggled a bit, it didn't affect the outcome.

The star of the game? I waffled a bit, but I think it has to be Nomar. 3-3, 2R, and 1 RBI would probably be enough. But, look at the timing of his production. First inning, he drives in the game's second run from the three-hole. Third inning, following a double play, he doubles to start a five run rally with two outs. Fifth inning, he leads off with a single, sparking a three-run inning. Three key at-bats.

The goat? I have to go with Carlos Baerga, if only so that I can remind people that Carlos Baerga once played for the Sox. But, he was the only starter without a hit or run. And, once he was replaced, his pinch-hitter clubbed a two-run home run. That's not what you want.

But, it didn't matter. The offense came early and often, giving the stars a nice restful day.

And the scorecard shows how it happened.

Drew Pomeranz, or Greg Maddux?

I'm not a major league pitcher. That should be pretty clear. I don't have a deep understanding of pitching nuances. So, I don't feel too bad about being a little confused.

I've always said that dominance from a power pitcher was easy to recognize. I knew when Pedro was having a good game. (That was easy, if he was on the mound he was having a good game.) You could tell when Josh Beckett was on fire. You know that Chris Sale is as dominant as they come. I can tell that Craig Kimbrel is on a roll. Those are easy. You watch the batter look completely overmatched. You see them flail about wildly. You see them walk back to the dugout dejectedly. You don't have to understand baseball to see how good they are.

It's different with the "pitch to contact" dominance. I've always said that I didn't realize that Derek Lowe had a no-hitter going until around the sixth inning. It's hard to pick up dominance from a series of ground balls to third. Or Koji. How was he dominating by inducing all those popups? Or Greg Maddux?

I understand the concept. If you throw the ball right down the middle, the hitters will hit it a long way. If you paint the corners, and keep them off balance, they'll still hit the ball, but it will be a weak grounder or soft pop-up. 

But, then, what do you do with Drew Pomeranz?

He had a game last night that I wouldn't call dominating. After all, he threw 120 pitches in 5 innings. But, he only gave up the one earned run. He struck out seven, and walked two. A pretty good line, actually. But, 120 pitches in five innings??

He threw a lot a pitches. He had a lot of long at-bat, which is why he had so few walks. So, the batters were fouling the ball off a lot. Which means, he was pitching to contact...but not enough contact?

Where is that middle ground? Does he need to throw the ball more towards the middle so the batters can hit it into fair territory? Does he actually need to be less effective? Does he need to put the ball closer to the plate? Is it fooling batters too much?

Because, like I said, he wasn't exactly wild. His strike percentage was better than Joe Kelly's. About the same a Craig Kimbrel. He was just throwing a lot of strikes. A lot of pitches.

So how does he find that line? Seven strikeouts is actually damn good for five innings. So, it's not like that's a problem. It's the other pitches. The ones that are too good to hit fair but not good enough to swing and miss. How does he fix that? How does he get them to ground out on the third pitch instead of the thirteenth? Does he need a better "out" pitch so that he's striking out more than 12.6 batters per nine innings? That seems like a lot to ask. Would a better out pitch get him to that point sooner? Do we want him striking out more batters than that? I don't know what the answer is.

So I really hope he does.

Who Should Start Opening Day?

Sorry EdRo, but there are really only three options for this question. And neither of them makes a particularly strong case. And, unfortunately, this year the Sox open the season at home. So you can't even split the honor by having one pitchers start Opening Day and having another start the home opener. So, you need to make a call.

Yes, I realize this is an awesome problem to have. It's not even because all the choices are equally bad. The problem is that they're equally strong. It means there is a decision to be made. What do you think?

The pitcher that probably seems like the most obvious choice is Rick Porcello. He's already apparently lined up to for the start. Assuming you call anything "lined up" a month away. If the Soxwanted any of the three to start, it wouldn't be too tough. But, Porcello is the reigning American League Cy Young award winner. So, that's an obvious feather in his cap. I guess for me there's still the stink of 2015 on him. He doesn't "feel" like an ace to me. But, that might be silly.

The other more obvious choice is David Price. While he didn't exactly earn the honor with his 2016 performance, he does have a Cy Young of his own on his resume. I think my bigger argument for him is that I assume he was signed to "be the ace". My assumption is that the Red Sox pitch to him when he was a free agent wasn't "Come be our number three starter." Again, it's not exactly the Red Sox's  fault that Porcello outperformed him. But, I don't remember there being a question about who would start the 2003 season after Derek Lowe's breakout 2002. It's was Pedro's role. He was the ace. Similarly, it was Price's role. Should he lose it?

The third choice, Chris Sale, really only has one thing going for him. He's the bright new shiny toy. Don't you want to show everyone your new toy as soon as you can? Don't you want to scare the rest of the league as soon as you can? He doesn't have the credentials the other two have. But, he's definitely a top starter, and would be getting the nod for just about any other team. Should he get it here?

So, who should it be? The reigning Cy Young? The hired ace? The new toy? Someone else?

Who gets your vote?

Was Derek Lowe Any Good?

I thought it was about time to flip through the scorebooks once again and see how a Red Sox favorite performed while I was keeping score. Today I chose Derek Lowe. 

Lowe was, of course, part of one of the most lopsided trades in Red Sox history when he joined the team along with Jason Varitek. He started out as many young pitchers do with a mixed role in the bullpen. From there, he set himself up to be an all-star closer before finishing his Red Sox career as an all-star starter. With all those roles, his scorecards had a lot of variety in them, which you can see in his career totals. 

So, was he an all star when I was watching? As a reliever? As a starter? See for yourself.

Wow. Wow. And then wow some more. He was really just great at everything, apparently. As far as pitchers I've scored so far...those are approaching Pedro numbers!

No, he's not Pedro.

His career stats as a reliever are hurt, as far as saves are concerned, because a lot of his games are before his time as a close. And, his starter stats are skewed a bit because one of his eight starts was a no-hitter. But, I don't want to take anything away from those performances.

He projects to be a 20-game winner when I saw him as a starting pitcher. I guessing his ERA would lead any league where Pedro wasn't pitching. As a closer he's, again, a bit short on the saves projection. But, I'll take that ERA and WHIP any day of the week. Well done, Mister Lowe. Well done.

How did he do when you were watching?

I Scored!

September 19, 1999

Let’s go quite a few years back, and check out a game from a playoff stretch run. This game is from late September1999, a year that the Red Sox would win the Wild Card, and make it to the ALCS before Pedro could carry them no farther. Let’s see how this one played out!

My favorite part about this card is the pitchers box. Check out Derek Lowe doing his best Andrew Miller impression. He entered the game in the sixth inning, and finished the game from there. He struck out three, while only allowing one baserunner. Not a bad performance at all.

The second thing I notice is the number three hole in the line-up. Not only is it weird to see Jason Varitek in that spot, it’s weird to see him wearing #33. Well, weird at the time. This is the first game I scored where Varitek wasn’t wearing #47. Does that make this card more valuable?

I know I say it every time I do a 1999 game, but I still can’t get over the rest of the line-up. Pedro really did carry this team all by himself, didn’t he? Damon Buford in the two-hole? Scott Hatteberg at DH? Wow.

But it worked, because the Sox had one inning big enough to seal the deal. The four-spot in the second was all the pitching would require in this game. The Sox added on three more just for fun to make sure Tim Wakefield could cruise until Lowe finished it off. 

The player of the game? Tempted to go with Wilton Veras and his key bases loaded single. But, I’m giving the nod to Nomar Garciaparra and his insurance two-run homer. The Tigers had just inched their way closer by scoring a run in the fourth when Nomar got it right back. 

The Goat? Everyone on the Red Sox got a hit in this game, so there’s nothing super-obvious. But, the aforementioned Damon Buford was the only player not to drive in or score a run. His 1-5 in the second spot wasn’t the sort of production you’re looking for. His strikeout in the second was particularly annoying because the first six batters in the inning had reached base before him.

But, of course, it didn’t matter. The Sox pounded out seven runs despite his best efforts to the contrary. The pitching did its job to seal the deal. Another convincing win from the hometown boys.

And the scorecard shows how it happened.

I’ll Take the Fifth?

Once again, the Sox are faced with the decision on fifth starter. This was quite a debate during spring training, even though I thought it was a pretty easy call. The Sox avoided the whole issue by starting Daisuke Matsuzaka on the DL. Still, some people were surprised to see Wakefield in the 4th spot, with Buchholz in the final slot. That would seem to imply that the Sox had Clay on the hot seat, primed for bullpen duty once Dice came back. That’s why I was surprised to see comments and stories lately saying how Wake was destined to the bullpen. I didn’t think
that the Sox would have changed their mind so quickly. Last night I finally heard that the Sox hadn’t actually made that announcement officially. So, I’m left wondering what level of “official” it is. (Of course, by the time you read this, they’ve probable held a press conference making me look like an idiot.) If it’s the way it will be, I’m also left wondering when Sox management decided they were morons. There are really two questions to look over. Which pitcher, Wake or Buchh, is the better starter, and which pitcher is the better reliever. Let’s tackle the first question first.

Each pitcher pitched very well in their last start, after being less impressive previously. I did see one thing, though, that showed me yet again that Clay not quite ready for the rotation, while Wake is. Clay has a bit too much Derek Lowe in him. Lowe was the master of the unearned runs. Derek was great at getting two outs, and having an error committed behind him. He would then proceed to give up 36 straight hits, with 15 home runs. None of those runs would be earned, though, so his numbers looked great at the end of the day. Looking back, he’d go 5 innings, giving up one run, and you’d think he had a decent day. And, it would be mostly true. It wasn’t his fault that the Sox didn’t get that third out. But, at some point, doesn’t he need to be accountable for the mountain of hits he did allow? The same thing just happened to Clay. The Sox made an error in the field behind him, extending the inning. But, he didn’t stop it there. He buckled, and gave up a slew of unearned runs. Those runs still count. Contrast that with Wake’s game Sunday. The first two batters reach on an error. (Yes, one was later reversed, but you get the point) Right off the bat, runners are at first and second with nobody out, through no fault of his own. Did Wake collapse? Nope. He just went ahead and got the next three guys. I imagine two things would have happened had Clay been on the mound Sunday afternoon. First, the inning would have been an hour longer because of the throws to first base. Second, at least one of those runners would have come home. Wakefield looks more capable of being a starting pitcher to me.

The question of who belongs in the pen is also an easy one. The Sox bullpen needs help. They don’t need a long guy. They need someone who can come into the game in the eighth inning and get outs. I’m sure both pitchers would be able to do that. But, as Wake has often pointed out, the knuckleball sometimes doesn’t knuckle. Sometimes it goes in straight, and leaves the park. If that happens in the second inning, I’m fine with that. If it happens with a one-run lead in the eighth, that’s a problem. I don’t want Wake’s flutterball coming into a close game late. I’d much rather have a guy like Buchholz in that situation. With a guy on third and a small lead, at least I think Clay can concentrate on getting the ball down. He can bear down to keep the run from scoring. Wake just hopes his ball moves. Looks to me like Clay is better suited for the pen.

Frankly, Wakefield has simply earned the right to start. And, no, there isn’t a player who should have a spot he’s not good enough to have. But, this isn’t the case. Wakefield was an all-star last year for cripes sake. For all he’s done for the team, he deserves that shot at 200 wins with the Sox. If Clay wants that fifth slot, he needs to pitch so well that it’s not a question. I don’t care that he’s the starter of the future. He’s not there yet. I’m not about to say that it’s fair to Clay. But, that’s the way it goes sometimes. He’ll be in the ‘pen until another starter gets hurt, or he gets traded. Which, by the way, is the only reason having Clay in the fifth spot makes any sense. If they told Wake, look, we need to trade the kid. He has no value until he can pitch. So, we’re going to have him start the next three weeks. Once San Diego sees him consistently in the rotation, we can trade him away. Then, the spot is yours again.

Provided the kid pitches well this month.