Why Should I Worry?

I don't have a degree in statistics or anything, so I don't know if there's any factual merit in my feelings. (If you do have such a degree, feel free to correct me in the comments.) But, I always felt that the "small sample size" problem really depended on what you were trying to use the data to prove. Sort of like if you're trying to prove that something doesn't exist, all you need is one instance where it does to prove it. That's a small sample.

That's how I feel about the beginning of the Red Sox season. I'm more than willing to chalk their early struggles to an oddity in a small sample size. (Or, a predetermined sacrifice to help them out later.) Why am I so eager to do that? Because of why they are faltering.

The starting pitching.

Nobody expects the starting pitching to be the thorn in the side of the 2019 Red Sox. ALL the data suggests they will be their strongest part. The small sample size thus far doesn't cause alarm. So, with no reason to believe otherwise, I'm gong to assume they will figure it out, and the Sox will steamroll to another division title.

Now, if the Sox were losing because the bullpen was blowing games? That might be another story. Many people expected the bullpen to hurt the team this season. There's some data to suggest it would be the worst part of the Red Sox team. So, if relievers were being booed off the mound like they're Joe Kelly, I could see where the small sample size might be enough to confirm fears. Still not enough to prove it's going to derail the problem. But, enough that I couldn't get too mad at people who suggest it might.

So, the same sample size would be enough in one case, but not in the other.

Which is why I'm not worried about the Sox. The rotation will figure it out. They're all too good not to. Nobody, I hope, thinks that Sale, Eovaldi, Edro, Porcelo, AND Price all forgot how to pitch during the same offseason. Right? All those all-stars and Cy Young winners just all fell off the cliff at the same time. It's as ridiculous as it sounds.


So I look forward to them clicking again. I'm pleased that these struggles are happening on the West Coast since the games are on late enough to not bother me as much. When they're back in the Eastern time zone, we should be able to watch their greatness once again.

Over a much bigger sample size.