My Little League coach was fond of saying “Let the perfect play beat you.” It was a way to judge your aggressiveness on the base paths. If you can take the next base easily, do it. If there’s no chance you’ll make it, don’t. Those are easy. But, the in-between cases took a decision. That was his. Let the perfect play beat you. So, if you’re thinking about taking third base and think to yourself, “if the left fielder fields the ball cleanly off the wall, and fires a strike to the third baseman right on target who fields it cleanly all while slapping the tag down I’ll be out”…give it a try. The odds of all those things happening to perfection on a single play were low enough that it was worth the chance. If the other team did happen to make that perfect play, tip your cap and head back to the dugout. Sure, you were going to make an out here and there, but in the long run you gained much more than you lost.
I keep thinking about that rule when I think about the 2017 Red Sox. People keep harping on the number of outs the team is making on the bases. Near or at the top of the league all year. But, I think the counter to that is, “if you’re not making any outs, are you trying hard enough?”
Take last night.
The Sox were down a run with two outs in the ninth, runners on first and second. Mookie lofted a double to left, scoring the lead runner easily. The question mark was Jackie Bradley Jr trying to score all the way from first base. The Sox rolled the dice, and sent him home. Game over, Red Sox win.
But…a perfect play would have beaten JBJ.
It actually almost happened. The left fielder made a nice barehanded play off the wall. He got it to the cutoff man, who fired it home. The throw home was just enough to the first base side, that the catcher was unable to handle the throw and make the tag. If the throw from the cutoff man was right on the money, Bradley would have been out and the game would have gone on to extra innings.
If that had happened, would people have been outraged? More bad base running from the Red Sox? I’m guessing they would have. But, what was the other option?
The Sox could have held JBJ at third, leaving runners at second and third with two outs. That means it would be up to Benintendi. He would need to get a hit to score the winning run. Or, you know, reach on an error or something. Or, a wild pitch. Or a balk. So, what is that…adding the odds of those happening to Beni Baseball’s batting average…a 30% chance of happening? Probably lower than that?
So by being aggressive, the Sox scored the winning run. If they were cautious, they would have left themselves a 30% chance of scoring. Seems like a no-brainer.
Why wouldn’t you be aggressive?
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