Here we sit a day after the Memorial Day holiday, and the Red Sox find themselves all alone in first place.
Where exactly did that come from? What on earth does it mean?
I think I need to fall back on what I said at the beginning of the month. I didn’t know how to predict results based on “better than average” and maybe, just maybe, the whole league tops out at “better than average.” There’s no more waiting to see how they fare against good teams. They’ve faced all the good teams they’re going to see. We’re two months into the season at this point. The “small sample size” argument is starting to go away. Are we now supposed to wait and see where they are on the Fourth of July? Labor Day?
Or is the whole league in the same boat. It’s going to come down to execution on a nightly basis. How your starting pitching matches up with the other starters on a given night. Do you give up six runs on a night where you score seven, or five?
The Sox are currently on pace for about 100 wins. Are they a 100 win team? I guess I have no idea. I wouldn’t think so, but I don’t know what else to call them either. They remind me of last year’s Orioles, or Giants. Nothing exciting about any of them. But, they just happened to come out on the winning side of more close games than not.
Is the rest of the season going to come down to chance? It’s very possible. They have three more games against Texas. Are they rainy games where a team wins based on an errant throw? Do they face the Yankees on a day that Rivera saved a game the night before, and is unavailable? Do they miss Felix Hernandez when they go to Seattle? Does NY? Does Verlander face them? Kershaw?
That’s what’s going to do it. How to the specific games fall? How does everything work out once it’s done? A few percentage points in their favor may make the difference in the end.
It’s gonna make for an interesting season.