Thursday, May 9, 2019

That's Why JBJ Plays!

I mean, it couldn't be more clear. Right? With the game on the line last night, Jackie Bradley Jr made a phenomenal catch to rob a walk-off home run. The Red Sox won the game the following inning. He misses that ball, and the Orioles win. But, he made the catch so the Red Sox did. Cut. Dry.

And it's the same answer when you dig a little deeper too. Because I know what some of you are thinking. He wouldn't have needed to make that catch if he had gotten a timely hit or two earlier in the game. Which is true. If he had gotten a hit with men on the corners instead of an inning ending strikeout, the game might not have even gone into extra innings. (Of course, if any number of people had gotten a key hit, the game wouldn't have gone into extra innings.) But, let's explore that a little more.

Bradley is hitting a rather abysmal .147 on the season. That comes from only getting 15 hits in 102 at-bats. So, I can understand that some people want someone else coming to the plate. But, who? If you're looking to not start JBJ, then you're putting another player in there instead. Looking at the current roster, the most logical choices are Nunez or Pearce. They both happen to be batting below .200 at the moment as they battle injuries. (Geez, the bench is pretty thin at the moment.) But, for the sake of argument, say they were hitting a Bogaerts-like .250. That means that in 102 at-bats, they would get 25 hits. That's ten more than JBJ has. So, about one more hit every ten at-bats. Or, one more hit every three games.

So, by replacing Bradley with a “real hitter” the Sox would expect to get an additional hit per series from JBJ’s spot in the order. That hit may have come with men at first and third, or maybe not. But, I do know that putting Pearce or Nunez in the game instead of JBJ reduces your ability to make that catch. Or, a similar catch...because I know, Mookie is probably in center if JBJ’s not and he could have made that catch. But then you have Martinez or Pearce in right or left or wherever. That would be a downgrade over Mookie or ‘Tendi. You get the idea. You need to take a big hit to your outfield defense in order to get an extra hit per series.

Now, I fully admit that some of this decision comes from the fact that I assume JBJ will eventually snap out of this. We all know that every year there's a month or two where he practically carries the team with his bat. To the point, in fact, where his final numbers are just below average. I'll concede that over a full season JD’s much better bat would probably make up for his inferior glove. But, when you're looking at short bursts here or there, it's not nearly that dramatic. It's well worth keeping JBJ’s glove in the outfield in that scenario. I know it can be frustrating at times. But that doesn't mean it's not the right idea.

I'm not sure how anyone can think otherwise.

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