Playing the Percentages

Every once in a while, I wonder if talk radio hosts are really as stupid as they sound, or if they are literally playing a character or

following a script just to create conflict. I generally assume that it's the latter, but sometimes wonder if they're taking things too far

The early season Red Sox struggles has been bringing a lot of that out. Last week, Alex Cora was giving an interview. The hosts mentioned that fans weren't “worried” yet about the season. But when should they start? They mentioned that the percentages of teams that finish April below .500 and then win the World Series are pretty low.

Really? Duh. You know why?

Because the percentage of teams that win the World Series is really low.

After all, since MLB added the second Wild Card, teams that started the season 0-0 have only won the World Series 3.3% of the time. In fact, only 6.6% of teams starting the season 0-0 even made the World Series! So, really, the Sox were finished before they were even started. Might as well wrap it up now.

Back to those April records though. That would be concerning if winning games were a random occurrence. But, in reality, there are good teams, and great teams, and bad teams, and downright terrible teams. The terrible teams? They have no shot at winning the Series. They also don't have much shot at winning April. If you're going to lose 100 games, chances are you're losing at least 20 in April. So, if you're including those teams in your statistics...yes. Teams finishing April below .500 win fewer World Series. But, what if you only counted “teams that you think should be good, but start off slow”? Well, your numbers would look better.

Want evidence? How about the Dodgers last year? They finished April at 12-16 .429, and ended it in the World Series. The Padres? They did not. That's what I'm talking about.

In fact, you want a stat? Last season 18 teams in baseball finished April at or above .500. One of them (the Red Sox) made the World Series. 12 teams finished April below .500, and one of them (the Dodgers) made the World Series. So, last year 5.6% of the teams that finished April at or above .500 made the Series, while 8.3% of the teams finishing April below .500 did. Therefore, you actually had a better chance of making the Series if you finished April below .500…assuming you use statistics like talk radio hosts do.

But, of course, the reality is that statistics don't work like that. The Red Sox will lose at least 60 games this season. When they lose them isn't really up to chance. If the Sox had opened against the Marlins this year, like last year, their record would be better. But, they opened on a west coast trip where they always struggle instead. So their record reflects that. When they face San Diego and Colorado later in the season, things will even out a bit. That's how it actually works.

And that’s why Alex Cora isn't worried.