Building a Bullpen

The Red Sox bullpen was involved in a lot of discussion this weekend. Mostly, because bullpens are always being involved in a lot of discussion. It's the nature of the beast. But, this weekend specifically the Sox bullpen was getting press because the Red Sox were playing the Yankees.

You see, last offseason, many people thought the Red Sox bullpen needed major additions. When the Sox didn't add a big name, people were upset. Apparently they want a bullpen of eleven closers, and the waste of money that goes along with that. It was made even worse when the Yankees did add a big name. Although, admittedly one I did not know until last offseason. The Yankees signed Adam Ottavino to a three-year $27 million contract. People were mildly upset at the time. Fast forward to this weekend, and Ottavino has been pitching well thus far, and the Red Sox are not in first place. Although, the Sox bullpen has been a bright spot...that people ignore.

Not only were the Red Sox playing Ottavino, the one that got away, but he even admitted that he had interest in coming to Boston but it didn't happen. Suddenly things went crazy. He wanted to come here! The Sox didn't want him!

There are a few problems with those rants. First, Ottavino didn't finish his sentence. I'm guessing that he wouldn't finish with “I had interest in playing there...for free.” My guess is he meant, “I had interest in playing there...if they offered me the most money.” And it's not that the Sox “didn't have interest”. The Sox “didn't have interest at his price”.

Because, let's look at that deal. Ottavino is 33 years old. He just had a season in Colorado with a 2.6 WAR. Not bad. But, it was his highest WAR since he was 27 five years earlier. Since then? 1.3, 0.8, 1.0, and 0.3. For everyone who screamed that the Sox signed Rick Porcello after a fluke good season, this was ten times worse. For comparison? Last season Craig Kimbrel was 30, with a 2.3 WAR. His previous four? 3.6, 0.8, 1.4, 2.5. Hard to see any other conclusion than Kimbrel being younger, and better...and people were running him out of town.

You know who else people can't wait to get out of town? A couple other Dave Dombrowski bullpen additions. The Sox traded for Carson Smith a couple years ago. At the time, he was 25 and coming off a 2.5 WAR season. Similarly, Tyler Thornburg was acquired by the Sox. He was just coming off a season where he was 27 and put up a 2.5 WAR. Are people in love with those deals at the moment?

Both of those deals were significantly smarter acquisitions than signing Ottavino would have been. Both are used as examples of why Dombrowski is terrible at building bullpens.

So, yes, Ottavino is pitching well at the moment.  It would have been far more likely for him to not. Imagine if the Sox spent $30 million on a reliever with his track record who went out and played to a 1.0 WAR. The Sox would be rightly trashed for it.

So before we get all mushy eyed over what might have been, maybe we need to consider what has happened. Sometimes good moves don't work.  Sometimes stupid moves aren't as bad as they could be right away. It's the choice you make.

The Sox made the right choice in this case.