When Should Mookie Bat?

The media doesn't do well with good times. I don't really know why it is. Why is it better or easier to write so and so don't get along than the write that they do? Both are pretty repetitive over and over. But, for some reason the negative one keeps getting play.

So, when the Red Sox are flying along with the best record in baseball, the media needs to make up controversy. Last week, they were into Mookie and his spot in the batting order. The best player in the game bats leadoff for the Red Sox. Exactly where the so-called math geeks say he should bat. But, that's not good enough for the EEIdiots. When Alex Cora joined their show, Rich Keefe asked why Mookie wasn't batting later in the line-up. (I've been a fan of Keefe since the Mut and Keefe days in Nashua, but his manager interviews have been nothing but him trying to stir things up where nothing exists.) After all, everyone in Little league knows that your best hitter bats fourth, in the "clean-up" spot. That way he can "clean up" all the runners on the bases. So, obviously, Mookie should be batting fourth...or at least third...so more people would be on base for him to drive it. Unfortunately, Cora gave a canned answer with too many holes. He answered that nobody could guarantee him a runner would be on base in front of him if he batted fourth, so he's keeping him leading off. Naturally, instead of just keeping in the throwaway answer it was supposed to be, the EEIdiots  pounded on the "guarantee" portion, and that no, there wasn't a guarantee...but there was a better chance.

But...how much better? And is it enough to move Mookie? It's a pretty complex problem, unfortunately, dealing with lots of numbers...but let's try the middle school level here.

The higher a batter hits in a line-up, the more times he comes to the plate over a season. That makes sense. If a pitcher throws a perfect game, everyone bats three times. If he gives up one baserunner, the first guy gets an extra at-bat. So, the number nine hitter comes to the plate around 610 times a year. If your number nine hitter is, say, 2017 JBJ...that means he'll reach base 32.3% of the time...or 197 times. So, as the lead-off guy, Mookie would bat (at least) 197 times with a runner on. (yes, some of those are HR that don't leave a guy on base, and sometimes the #8 batter will still be on base even if the #9 guy makes an out. But, keeping it simple...)

What if Mookie hit second, instead, behind Benintendi? The first batter comes to the plate, say, 750 times a year. Tendi reaches base 35.2% of the time...or 265 times. So, that's almost 70 more times that Mookie will bat with a runner on if he hit second than if he leads off.

Ahh, but that's just the first level of analysis.

Because, now you're screwing Tendi. With Mookie hitting first, he was batting with a guy on base 331 times. Now he's batting behind JBJ, meaning he only sees a runner on base those 197 times. 

Ouch.

So, add the two together. If the line-up goes Mookie-Tendi, those two batters will hit with runners on 589 times a season. If the order goes Tendi-Mookie, they'll combine to bat with runners on 590 times a season. 

So, if you look at those two batters, it doesn't really matter if it's Mookie-Tendi or Tendi-Mookie when it comes to combined at-bats with runners on base.

So, advantage to hitting Mookie first? He gets up more. Not a lot, but about 15 times more a year than batting second. I assume you want your best hitters to hit the most, even if it's just a little bit, right? It also puts a better hitter following JBJ. So, when JBJ does reach base, there's a better chance of taking advantage of the situation (about 10 percentage points better). Cora also said he liked the idea of Mookie being able to start the game off with a bang, and get the pitcher on his heels immediately.

Sounds good so me.

So can we drop the idea of moving Mookie? I'd leave him there for  superstition purposes alone. But, when you have the numbers to back it up as well, it becomes a no-brainer. 

Now, if you want to ask why JD Martinez isn't batting second...