Where to Begin

After all, I started writing three different blogs today, on three different topics. All had to be scrapped when the Red Sox made ANOTHER huge deal that needed to be discussed.

So, where to begin? How about the beginning.

The first deal was one I love. The Red Sox acquired Tyler Thornburg from the Milwaukee Brewers. They had to give up Travis Shaw, Mauricio Dubon, and Josh Pennington. I'll admit that Shaw was the only one I was all that familiar with. But, Dubon and Pennington look to be top 25 type prospects. The first thing that I thought was humorous was the reaction to losing Shaw. I know he was highly overrated his entire time with the Sox. But, if anything should tell you his value, it's the fact that the Sox had to add two more players (plus a PTBNL) to the deal along with Shaw just to get back a middle reliever. Perhaps the people who were considering him a star in the making were overreaching a wee bit? But, of course, the Sox didn't just get back a middle reliever. They got back an elite arm. Throw him in a bullpen with Kimbrel, Kelly and a healthy Smith? The Sox are going to be closing out some games in style, no matter who the starter is. If you can get a key addition to the major league club for a back-up third baseman and a couple kids, I have to love that. 

Oh, and speaking of starters, the Sox got one of those too. The best one they could. The Sox added Chris Sale to the tip of the rotation. (Or, heck, second or third maybe.) Of course, he didn't come cheap. Anywhere close to cheap. But, again, they didn't give away anything from the big club. Of course, you're not getting Chris Sale with a package headlined by Henry Owens. So, the Sox had to part with top prospect Yoan Moncada. It had to hurt a little, right? But, his name doesn't start with a "B" so I'm cool. The Sox also threw in Michael Kopech and his 105 MPH fastball, Luis Alexander Basabe, and Victor Diaz. Yup. Like I said, it needed to hurt. But, again, these were all minor leaguers, and in return the Sox got one of the best pitchers in the game.

Yes, the farm system is less stacked than it was before. But, you now the main reason the farm was a little thin? All the studs are in Boston. Benintendi, Betts, Bradley, Bogaerts, Vazquez are all in Boston. There's your youth. There's your future. Those guys are starring in Boston for the next few years. Why do you need more guys in the farm? You know what you needed? Another starter in Boston. So, trade what you don't need to get what you do. Sounds like the perfect plan to me. And, remember, not every prospect pans out. You know who does pan out? People who already have.

So, sure. Reliever are quirky as a group. And Sale can be a bit of a nut case. But, they've proven they can play at a very high level. And, now they're on the Red Sox. How does that not make you excited.

Benintendi
Pedroia
Bogaerts
Betts
Ramirez
Sandoval
Moreland
Vazquez
Bradley

Porcello
Sale
Price
Pomeranz
Wright
Rodriguez
Buchholz
Kelly
Smith
Thornburg
Kimbrel

Heck, where were you putting the kids anyway? Isn't it better to take that potential talent for a spin and see what it gets you? After all, it just might get you an ace.

Or even another one.

Why is Farrell lying about Shaw?

John Farrell keeps pinch hitting for Travis Shaw. That on its own isn’t exactly shocking. But, the fact that’s he’s doing it so early is.

For some reason, Farrell named Shaw his starting third baseman out of Spring Training. It’s was the wrong move, but he made it anyway. He also has Shaw batting sixth in the order. 

So, why on earth are you pinch hitting for your number six hitter in the sixth inning?

I mean, is he one of your best hitters, or not? 

Like I said, bringing in a pinch hitter is fine. If it’s a tight game in the eighth inning, and the match-up isn’t great. That’s a time to use your bench to your advantage. But, the sixth inning? At that point the substitute is seeing as much action as the starter. What gives?

Someone finally asked Farrell about it. He responded that he needed to get Chris Young some at-bats. He has Shaw and Holt back to back as lefties, he thought it’d make sense to put Shaw in for one of them when a lefty reliever came in. But, if he took out Holt, then Holt couldn’t play the infield on a switch. So, he takes out Shaw.

Of course, that’s a lie. Because, if he took out Holt, he wouldn’t need Holt to play the infield. The infield would still have all the starters in it. (As a side note, I think it’s funny that’s he’s using the fact that he’s starting his utility player in the outfield as an excuse to make another bad decision.) 

So, what’s going on here?

He’s covering for Shaw.

He knows he needs Shaw to perform well. He made a huge move by starting Shaw as a way to save his job. Shaw can’t come out and hit .190. So, he needs to limit Shaw’s chances to make outs. If someone brings in a lefty reliever get him out of there. Even if it’s leading off the sixth. He needs to limit damage. After all, people are already wondering on Twitter what happened to Shaw’s supposed power. He can’t afford to have the average drop as well. Otherwise, people are really going to (correctly) wonder why Panda’s sitting there on the bench. After all, when talking about Young, Farrell points out that over his long career he's been a better hitter against lefties than Shaw. It doesn't matter that Shaw hit lefties slightly better last year. People are going to wonder why Panda didn't get the same treatment.

He made the move to try and save his job. Now he has to stick with it.

And it’s all about damage control.

Can We Pump the Brakes on Travis Shaw?

I'm going to start this with a question, and I want you to answer it honestly.

How good do you actually think Travis Shaw is?

I ask this because people seem to think he's Mike Schmidt. I hate to be the one to break it to you. He's not. That's certainly not a knock on Shaw. There's only one Mike Schmidt. But, it should be a knock on the people who seem to think they've found another one.

Travis Shaw is having an amazing spring. He had a darn good September too. But, people seem to forget Spring and September numbers don't actually count for anything. So far he's been excelling at competition slightly better than AAA level. We're going to make decisions based on that? 

But, some people want to do exactly that. They think Shaw should be the starting third baseman, and not Pablo Sandoval. Let's explore that a little bit.

Pretend you actually care about September statistics. (You know, like the ones that insisted Kevin Maas was the next Mickey Mantle.) How did Shaw do last fall? I see he performed to a 115 OPS+. That's a pretty good number. Know what Pablo Sandoval's career OPS+ is? 117. It doesn't take an expert to see that Panda's been better over his career than Shaw has been over his. 

Yes. yes. I know. Panda had an off year last year. And, you'd be right to mention it. But, I should point out that his numbers were a bit worse than his performance. I've already mentioned that he put the ball in play about as often last year as he did the year before, he just hit about 35 points lower. That could very well be dumb luck. In fact, baseball reference predicts that he will bounce back a little bit. A .264/.317/.404 slash. 

What do they predict for Shaw? A .270/.329/.468 slash. So, they predict that Travis Shaw coming off the month of his life will be marginally better than Sandoval coming off the worst (unluckiest?) season of his.

That's not good enough for me.

If I'm going to replace a guy who has had an eight-year history of good performance, I'm going to need more than replacement level to get him out of there.

After all, the Sox will need Panda in the playoffs!