Yup. I did it again. I watched the 2018 Red Sox World Series DVD again today. Every time I do, I seem to pick up on something new. Today, it was something I think I probably realized, but just didn't
click until today.
Not only did Alex Cora allow his starting pitchers to pitch on days they didn't start, he actually let them pitch on days they did start too.
In past postseasons, the Sox have been plagued by starting pitching problems. The starters were only going four or five innings at most, taking the bullpen, and spiraling down from there. Hard to win a series when our long reliever pitches more than your starters.
But, that didn't happen this year. Quite a few starters were going six or seven innings during their starts. You might think it's because they were pitching better than in years past. I think it might be something else. Cora was letting them pitch more than in years passed. It was watching David Price's fourth inning of Game 2 that really clicked for me.
Price entered the inning with a one-run lead. While he had pitched well in his last playoff start, he did have that history of not winning in the postseason. This is how the inning started.
Single.
Single
Walk.
Ick. This was the Price people were afraid of. If Farrell were still managing, what do you think would have happened? Would Price have faced the next batter after that "meltdown" with a one-run lead? I'm not sure.
Price then gave up a flyball. While it got the first out, it also tied the game. Would that have been enough to keep him in the game? I doubt it. If he was still pitching, the strike out of Hernandez may have allowed him to pitch to Puig. But, when Puig hit the run scoring single, I can't imagine Farrell wouldn't be walking to the mound before Price had the ball back in his glove. Sure, there were two outs. But, first and third with a starter struggling in a key game? He'd be on the bench. Heck, Francona might have pulled him there. But Cora doesn't. And, Price rewards him by getting the last out of the inning, and holding the Dodgers to just the two runs.
So, sure the Sox got an extra out from Price? What's the big deal?
The big deal is the fifth inning. Price set the side down in order. Quickly. Easily. Pitching an inning that the bullpen didn't have to.
Then he did it again in the sixth, with a newly minted lead in the game. The sixth was even better than the fifth. Once again, the starter recovered and pitched an inning so the bullpen didn't have to.
By the time Price finally stays on the bench in the seventh, you're into your preferred part of the bullpen. Kelly-Eovaldi-Kimbrel closed out the win. You used the three relievers you wanted to use, and didn't have to pitch together two important innings in the middle of the game. Just because Cora let the starters pitch.
Now, will that work every time? Of course not. Cora let EdRo face one batter too many in game four. And, it almost cost him dearly. But, generally, I like the idea of letter pitchers pitch. Starters can give up three runs and not have terrible games. If the tradeoff is having fresh relievers for when you really need them? I think that's a gamble worth taking.
And, apparently, so does Cora.
Showing posts with label Alex Cora. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Alex Cora. Show all posts
Wednesday, January 16, 2019
Wednesday, November 14, 2018
Managing Expectations
Last night, as you probably heard, Major League Baseball announced their manager of the year award. And, as you probably heard, Alex Cora finished second in the voting. This really annoyed me.
No, not because I think he should have won, even though he should have. The actual winner of these awards is becoming less important to me as time goes by. Being "in the conversation" is what's important, more than whoever happens to get more random-feeling votes. He had a great year. We all know that. We don't need a trophy to prove it. (Although, the World Series trophy certainly implies it.)
No, my problem is that he finished second, and not first or third. Either of those would have at least made sense.
If he finished first, you would reward the manager who won the most games with the manager of the year award. That certainly makes sense. After all, the whole goal is to win the most games.
Or, if you oddly wanted to punish Cora for having expensive players you could vote for Melvin and Cash. They won many games with a very low payroll. Which is a great job by them, as long as you equate "payroll" with "talent". After all, the Rays had the Cy Young award winner this season, and A's fans tell me Matt Chapman is like a god or something. So, just because they're not paid very much doesn't mean they aren't highly skilled. Conversely, just because the Sox pay a lot for players doesn't mean they're awesome. After all, a chunk of the Sox payroll is going towards Hanley Ramirez, Dustin's Pedroia's corpse, and Pablo Sandoval. Players that Cora couldn't use much if at all because they weren't on the team for most of the season. (Frankly, Cora should win the award just for having dealt with Pedroia all season.) But, I digress. If you want to vote the award as sort of a win per dollar calculation, Cora wouldn't be your top choice.
But, then, why did he finish second?
So, he finished behind a guy who won a lot despite his payroll, but ahead of a guy who won a lot despite his payroll. Which is it? Are we penalizing talent, or rewarding it? Did Cash get screwed because he didn't make the playoffs in a division with two 100-win teams? Were the extra seven wins in a weaker division so much better for Melvin? What the hell is a possible explanation to vote Boone over Cora?
So, I don't mind stupid reasons, as long as their somewhat valid. If you want to say an MVP has to come from a playoff team, fine. You'll be stupid, but that's fine. Just always only vote for players from playoff teams. If your Cy young has to have a lot of wins, that's fine. It's a stupid qualification, but go ahead. Just always use that criteria. If your manager of the year needs to have a low payroll, fine. You're a fool, but fine. Just always reward guys with low payrolls.
Otherwise it looks like you're just making things up.
No, not because I think he should have won, even though he should have. The actual winner of these awards is becoming less important to me as time goes by. Being "in the conversation" is what's important, more than whoever happens to get more random-feeling votes. He had a great year. We all know that. We don't need a trophy to prove it. (Although, the World Series trophy certainly implies it.)
No, my problem is that he finished second, and not first or third. Either of those would have at least made sense.
If he finished first, you would reward the manager who won the most games with the manager of the year award. That certainly makes sense. After all, the whole goal is to win the most games.
Or, if you oddly wanted to punish Cora for having expensive players you could vote for Melvin and Cash. They won many games with a very low payroll. Which is a great job by them, as long as you equate "payroll" with "talent". After all, the Rays had the Cy Young award winner this season, and A's fans tell me Matt Chapman is like a god or something. So, just because they're not paid very much doesn't mean they aren't highly skilled. Conversely, just because the Sox pay a lot for players doesn't mean they're awesome. After all, a chunk of the Sox payroll is going towards Hanley Ramirez, Dustin's Pedroia's corpse, and Pablo Sandoval. Players that Cora couldn't use much if at all because they weren't on the team for most of the season. (Frankly, Cora should win the award just for having dealt with Pedroia all season.) But, I digress. If you want to vote the award as sort of a win per dollar calculation, Cora wouldn't be your top choice.
But, then, why did he finish second?
So, he finished behind a guy who won a lot despite his payroll, but ahead of a guy who won a lot despite his payroll. Which is it? Are we penalizing talent, or rewarding it? Did Cash get screwed because he didn't make the playoffs in a division with two 100-win teams? Were the extra seven wins in a weaker division so much better for Melvin? What the hell is a possible explanation to vote Boone over Cora?
So, I don't mind stupid reasons, as long as their somewhat valid. If you want to say an MVP has to come from a playoff team, fine. You'll be stupid, but that's fine. Just always only vote for players from playoff teams. If your Cy young has to have a lot of wins, that's fine. It's a stupid qualification, but go ahead. Just always use that criteria. If your manager of the year needs to have a low payroll, fine. You're a fool, but fine. Just always reward guys with low payrolls.
Otherwise it looks like you're just making things up.
Monday, October 29, 2018
The Boston Red Sox are the World Champions!
For the first time in five years!
What a feeling. What a game. What a team!
There's so much that can and should be said about this team that I can't cover it all right now. (But, don't you worry I will at some point.) There are some things, though, that just need to be talked about now. Like last night's clinching game.
I've often said that the definition of “clutch” as “late and close” is somewhat misleading. There can be clutch home runs prior to the seventh inning. Steve Pearce proved that last night. His home run three batters into the game did more than give the Red Sox a first inning lead. It was crushing to the soul of theDodgers. They're in an elimination scenario. They have their ace on the mound, so they at least have some hope. Then, bam, they're down two runs before fans have found their seats. If there's a way to lose a game before it starts, that was it. A one-hundred percent clutch “here we go again” home run in the top of the first inning. Incredible.
Speaking of clutch first inning home runs, the Dodgers tried to get one of their own when they led off their game with a home run on the first pitch. (Thereby making Pearce’s home run even more clutch looking back.) That, of course, could have been crushing for the Sox. A momentum shift to be sure. And, admit it, part of you wondered if it was going to rattle Price. OK, all of you wondered if it would rattle Price. But, it didn’t. New Price didn't let it get to him, and just shut the door on the Dodgers without allowing another run. This isn't your father’s David Price.
Or, what about the “triple” to right field that JD Martinez lost in the sky? That was going to be it, right? A guy who was in the lineup only for his bat, which had been missing for a while, makes a mistake like that. Once again, fans were probably thinking that was it. It was Buckner in there for his bat costing the team with his glove. And specifically for Price, you could almost see it in his head. “I'm finally pitching well, and he does THAT!?!?” Another perfect opportunity to unravel. The odds failing Price again. But, no. He retired the next two batters, and left the guy standing at third base. Two chances to fall apart turned into two chances for Price to simply stand up taller instead.
The key bats returned just in time. We had been wondering where Mookie and JD were hiding. They had allowed the bottom of the order to do a lot of the heavy lifting this far. But, they came back with a key home run each late in the game. Key for a couple reasons. For one, in a clinching game you can never have too many insurance runs. Make it as easy as possible on the bullpen to close out the game. But personally too, it was nice to see them chip in. Mookie didn't end the series going 0-15 or whatever. He hit a key home run in the clincher. That has to feel good, and makes his stat sheet look more respectable. I am especially glad in his case, since it looked like he was coming around, and hitting the ball harder. It would have been too bad if he ran out of time before he found his swing again. JD looked more lost at the plate. But it was still nice to have him end on such a positive. Next year, they'll have something to build on.
After Price’s magnificent start, the game was turned over to another new pitcher, “Playoff Joe Kelly”. Kelly continued his newly remembered dominance and struck out the side. Amazing.
The last inning was handled by Chris Sale. So, apparently he was healthy after all. I was worried that the ball would go to Craig Kimbrel. While he had rediscovered his dominance, in his outing during game four he looked TIRED! I was afraid he would get to close out the game because he “deserved” to close, even if he wasn’t the right guy at the time. After all, he probably had pretty good numbers in Cora’s binder. But, Cora actually played this one by ear. (Unless Sale’s numbers were even better, which is possible.) He slammed the door by striking out the side himself. He even created the best finishing moment since Papelbon levitated with his hands on his head. The image of Manny Machado falling to a knee after being embarrassed by the pitch pretty much summed up the series for him and the Dodgers.
So the best regular season team is the best playoff team as well. It was an amazing ride through an incredible season and I can’t wait to keep talking about it in the months to come.
What was your favorite moment?
Wednesday, October 10, 2018
Had 'em All The Way
While the ride wasn't as smooth as we might have hoped, the destination was right. The Red Sox beat the Yankees last night to advance to the American League Championship Series against the Houston Astros.
The Red Sox have now won seven of their last eight playoff games agains the Yankees. Pretty dominating if you ask me.
And while the Series ended up being an easy win, every game wasn't. And, the clincher certainly wasn't. But, they can't all be 16-1 games, can they?
So, thoughts from last night?
I wasn't a huge fan of taking Porcello out after five. Obviously Cora knew what he was doing, and bringing in Barnes to face the Yankees thumpers makes some sense. I guess I'm just tired of the quick playoff hook the Red Sox have been using in the playoffs the last few years. Want to know why the Red Sox starters don't win? Because they get taken out after giving up three runs in four innings. Porcello was going along pretty well, and I guess I would have tried to get one more out of him. Which, I suppose, is why they didn't hire me as manager.
I loved Chris Sale coming in for the eighth. No, not because I thought he was the best option or idea (although, he probably was). I loved it because it meant Cora really didn't have any concerns about him. To hear the EEidiots talk about Sale, he was a fragile peach who could very well be terrible next time on the mound. But, the guys who actually knows something clearly didn't share those thoughts. Obviously, Cora isn't worried about the shoulder. He's not treating Sale with kid gloves hoping to squeeze two more starts out of him. He's also clearly convinced that the mechanical flaw is fixed. The eighth inning of an elimination game isn't the place to hope something turns out OK.
Kimbrel was not sharp.
Unless, he was? One thing that always made me ponder with Dice-K is that he always seemed to work himself out of trouble. He'd walk the bases loaded and then strike out the next three. Or so it seemed. He was also known for throwing a ton of pitches, going back to high school. I always wondered if that was a strategy. Walk the guys that are tough outs, go after the ones who he can handle. Does Kimbrel follow an approach like that? Facing Judge in the ninth inning with a three run lead? Nibble a bit, see if he'll chase. If not, a baserunner in that situation isn't terrible. Because he seemed to go from being "wild" against Judge to being able to handle Stanton. I bet he figured he could handle Sanchez too. Now, I wouldn't say his plan was to load the bases. But, I would understand it if he didn't consider it a terrible idea either.
Or he just wasn't sharp.
I'm sure people have been mentioning it, but the play by Pearce to end the game seems underrated to me. Not only did he actually get the out, but he kept the ball from getting by him in the first place. That's a tough play in that situation when you know that if the ball gets by you, the game is probably tied...if not over. Heck, even a little bobble might have been enough. But, he grabbed it clean and just kept his foot on the bag long enough. Pretty impressive.
Which is what happens on good teams. Everyone contributes when they're needed.
It's how you win a playoff series.
The Red Sox have now won seven of their last eight playoff games agains the Yankees. Pretty dominating if you ask me.
And while the Series ended up being an easy win, every game wasn't. And, the clincher certainly wasn't. But, they can't all be 16-1 games, can they?
So, thoughts from last night?
I wasn't a huge fan of taking Porcello out after five. Obviously Cora knew what he was doing, and bringing in Barnes to face the Yankees thumpers makes some sense. I guess I'm just tired of the quick playoff hook the Red Sox have been using in the playoffs the last few years. Want to know why the Red Sox starters don't win? Because they get taken out after giving up three runs in four innings. Porcello was going along pretty well, and I guess I would have tried to get one more out of him. Which, I suppose, is why they didn't hire me as manager.
I loved Chris Sale coming in for the eighth. No, not because I thought he was the best option or idea (although, he probably was). I loved it because it meant Cora really didn't have any concerns about him. To hear the EEidiots talk about Sale, he was a fragile peach who could very well be terrible next time on the mound. But, the guys who actually knows something clearly didn't share those thoughts. Obviously, Cora isn't worried about the shoulder. He's not treating Sale with kid gloves hoping to squeeze two more starts out of him. He's also clearly convinced that the mechanical flaw is fixed. The eighth inning of an elimination game isn't the place to hope something turns out OK.
Kimbrel was not sharp.
Unless, he was? One thing that always made me ponder with Dice-K is that he always seemed to work himself out of trouble. He'd walk the bases loaded and then strike out the next three. Or so it seemed. He was also known for throwing a ton of pitches, going back to high school. I always wondered if that was a strategy. Walk the guys that are tough outs, go after the ones who he can handle. Does Kimbrel follow an approach like that? Facing Judge in the ninth inning with a three run lead? Nibble a bit, see if he'll chase. If not, a baserunner in that situation isn't terrible. Because he seemed to go from being "wild" against Judge to being able to handle Stanton. I bet he figured he could handle Sanchez too. Now, I wouldn't say his plan was to load the bases. But, I would understand it if he didn't consider it a terrible idea either.
Or he just wasn't sharp.
I'm sure people have been mentioning it, but the play by Pearce to end the game seems underrated to me. Not only did he actually get the out, but he kept the ball from getting by him in the first place. That's a tough play in that situation when you know that if the ball gets by you, the game is probably tied...if not over. Heck, even a little bobble might have been enough. But, he grabbed it clean and just kept his foot on the bag long enough. Pretty impressive.
Which is what happens on good teams. Everyone contributes when they're needed.
It's how you win a playoff series.
Thursday, September 6, 2018
Even When They Try to Lose They Win
OK. So I'm sure that the Red Sox weren't actively trying to lose the game yesterday afternoon. But, as much as Alex Cora talked about the all stars and high draft picks on the field, they weren't exactly trying to win the game either. Cora has made it clear that he's not going to miss a chance to give some guys a break if they need it. So, the chance to rest his regulars for two full days before the Astros series was an easy call for him. And it was the right one, even if it meant losing one game on September 5.
Of course, they went out and won the game anyway. There are so many amazing stories that come out of that, I can't possibly hit them all. But here are a few of the bigger ones.
When David Price had his dominant start against the Indians a couple weeks ago, some saw it as a huge win for him against a playoff team. Others insisted that the win didn't mean anything because it was getaway day for the Indians. They already had their bags packed and were thinking about their in-flight meals. Shutting them down wasn't a big deal, or any kind of achievement. So, apply that logic to yesterday's game. The Sox had their bags packed. They were down huge late in the game. Easy one to just fold up and get out of town with a series win. But, they didn't. They came back huge to tie the game. Then they fell behind again. Then the came back AGAIN in the ninth inning. Of a getaway game. Against a playoff team. Yeah, that was impressive.
So, maybe the Sox can, in fact, hit their way out of an early deficit...even against a "playoff" team. Because that was the knock, right? Sure you can come back against the Orioles. But, not a good team. Well, that's now two playoff bullpens (after the Yankees game earlier this season) who the Red Sox have knocked around to come back when trailing big. This time, they didn't even need their big guns, as Betts, Bogaerts, and Martinez went 0-1 with a walk combined in the game. So, doesn't that put the "comeback" in play come playoff time too? Doesn't this mean that the mythical "playoff bullpen" is just that? A myth? The Sox can come back against any bullpen. They've shown they can.
Doesn't the game also show that a playoff bullpen can blow a lead? I know, I just said that. But...this is another angle. All season, people have been pointing to the bullpen as the Sox fatal flaw. A team can't expect to advance in the playoffs with a bullpen that blows games. Right? Well, that's now a second team that the Sox were supposed to worry about that has a bullpen that blows games. Huge. So, maybe the Sox bullpen isn't as much "fatal flaw" as "the definition of a bullpen". Sure, the Sox might lose a game because of their pen. But, chances are, so will the team that they're playing. It's an even playing field, not an advantage other teams have.
So, at this point the division starts to look pretty comfortable. The Sox hold a 9.5 game lead over the Yankees, thanks to their loss last night. That means, with 21 games remaining the magic number is 13. Simple math tells you that the Sox just need to go 13-8 to take care of the division themselves. Considering their current .688 season winning percentage, that's not exactly a crazy thought. But, say they Sox stumble, or rest more players, and only go 10-11 the rest of the way? That means the Yankees would need to go 20-2 the rest of the season to tie for the lead. Yeah, that's a pretty big hill. Possible? I guess. Probable? Not even a little bit.
Which is why this last month will be so much fun!
Of course, they went out and won the game anyway. There are so many amazing stories that come out of that, I can't possibly hit them all. But here are a few of the bigger ones.
When David Price had his dominant start against the Indians a couple weeks ago, some saw it as a huge win for him against a playoff team. Others insisted that the win didn't mean anything because it was getaway day for the Indians. They already had their bags packed and were thinking about their in-flight meals. Shutting them down wasn't a big deal, or any kind of achievement. So, apply that logic to yesterday's game. The Sox had their bags packed. They were down huge late in the game. Easy one to just fold up and get out of town with a series win. But, they didn't. They came back huge to tie the game. Then they fell behind again. Then the came back AGAIN in the ninth inning. Of a getaway game. Against a playoff team. Yeah, that was impressive.
So, maybe the Sox can, in fact, hit their way out of an early deficit...even against a "playoff" team. Because that was the knock, right? Sure you can come back against the Orioles. But, not a good team. Well, that's now two playoff bullpens (after the Yankees game earlier this season) who the Red Sox have knocked around to come back when trailing big. This time, they didn't even need their big guns, as Betts, Bogaerts, and Martinez went 0-1 with a walk combined in the game. So, doesn't that put the "comeback" in play come playoff time too? Doesn't this mean that the mythical "playoff bullpen" is just that? A myth? The Sox can come back against any bullpen. They've shown they can.
Doesn't the game also show that a playoff bullpen can blow a lead? I know, I just said that. But...this is another angle. All season, people have been pointing to the bullpen as the Sox fatal flaw. A team can't expect to advance in the playoffs with a bullpen that blows games. Right? Well, that's now a second team that the Sox were supposed to worry about that has a bullpen that blows games. Huge. So, maybe the Sox bullpen isn't as much "fatal flaw" as "the definition of a bullpen". Sure, the Sox might lose a game because of their pen. But, chances are, so will the team that they're playing. It's an even playing field, not an advantage other teams have.
So, at this point the division starts to look pretty comfortable. The Sox hold a 9.5 game lead over the Yankees, thanks to their loss last night. That means, with 21 games remaining the magic number is 13. Simple math tells you that the Sox just need to go 13-8 to take care of the division themselves. Considering their current .688 season winning percentage, that's not exactly a crazy thought. But, say they Sox stumble, or rest more players, and only go 10-11 the rest of the way? That means the Yankees would need to go 20-2 the rest of the season to tie for the lead. Yeah, that's a pretty big hill. Possible? I guess. Probable? Not even a little bit.
Which is why this last month will be so much fun!
Monday, May 14, 2018
When Should Mookie Bat?
The media doesn't do well with good times. I don't really know why it is. Why is it better or easier to write so and so don't get along than the write that they do? Both are pretty repetitive over and over. But, for some reason the negative one keeps getting play.
So, when the Red Sox are flying along with the best record in baseball, the media needs to make up controversy. Last week, they were into Mookie and his spot in the batting order. The best player in the game bats leadoff for the Red Sox. Exactly where the so-called math geeks say he should bat. But, that's not good enough for the EEIdiots. When Alex Cora joined their show, Rich Keefe asked why Mookie wasn't batting later in the line-up. (I've been a fan of Keefe since the Mut and Keefe days in Nashua, but his manager interviews have been nothing but him trying to stir things up where nothing exists.) After all, everyone in Little league knows that your best hitter bats fourth, in the "clean-up" spot. That way he can "clean up" all the runners on the bases. So, obviously, Mookie should be batting fourth...or at least third...so more people would be on base for him to drive it. Unfortunately, Cora gave a canned answer with too many holes. He answered that nobody could guarantee him a runner would be on base in front of him if he batted fourth, so he's keeping him leading off. Naturally, instead of just keeping in the throwaway answer it was supposed to be, the EEIdiots pounded on the "guarantee" portion, and that no, there wasn't a guarantee...but there was a better chance.
But...how much better? And is it enough to move Mookie? It's a pretty complex problem, unfortunately, dealing with lots of numbers...but let's try the middle school level here.
The higher a batter hits in a line-up, the more times he comes to the plate over a season. That makes sense. If a pitcher throws a perfect game, everyone bats three times. If he gives up one baserunner, the first guy gets an extra at-bat. So, the number nine hitter comes to the plate around 610 times a year. If your number nine hitter is, say, 2017 JBJ...that means he'll reach base 32.3% of the time...or 197 times. So, as the lead-off guy, Mookie would bat (at least) 197 times with a runner on. (yes, some of those are HR that don't leave a guy on base, and sometimes the #8 batter will still be on base even if the #9 guy makes an out. But, keeping it simple...)
What if Mookie hit second, instead, behind Benintendi? The first batter comes to the plate, say, 750 times a year. Tendi reaches base 35.2% of the time...or 265 times. So, that's almost 70 more times that Mookie will bat with a runner on if he hit second than if he leads off.
Ahh, but that's just the first level of analysis.
Because, now you're screwing Tendi. With Mookie hitting first, he was batting with a guy on base 331 times. Now he's batting behind JBJ, meaning he only sees a runner on base those 197 times.
Ouch.
So, add the two together. If the line-up goes Mookie-Tendi, those two batters will hit with runners on 589 times a season. If the order goes Tendi-Mookie, they'll combine to bat with runners on 590 times a season.
So, if you look at those two batters, it doesn't really matter if it's Mookie-Tendi or Tendi-Mookie when it comes to combined at-bats with runners on base.
So, advantage to hitting Mookie first? He gets up more. Not a lot, but about 15 times more a year than batting second. I assume you want your best hitters to hit the most, even if it's just a little bit, right? It also puts a better hitter following JBJ. So, when JBJ does reach base, there's a better chance of taking advantage of the situation (about 10 percentage points better). Cora also said he liked the idea of Mookie being able to start the game off with a bang, and get the pitcher on his heels immediately.
Sounds good so me.
So can we drop the idea of moving Mookie? I'd leave him there for superstition purposes alone. But, when you have the numbers to back it up as well, it becomes a no-brainer.
Now, if you want to ask why JD Martinez isn't batting second...
So, when the Red Sox are flying along with the best record in baseball, the media needs to make up controversy. Last week, they were into Mookie and his spot in the batting order. The best player in the game bats leadoff for the Red Sox. Exactly where the so-called math geeks say he should bat. But, that's not good enough for the EEIdiots. When Alex Cora joined their show, Rich Keefe asked why Mookie wasn't batting later in the line-up. (I've been a fan of Keefe since the Mut and Keefe days in Nashua, but his manager interviews have been nothing but him trying to stir things up where nothing exists.) After all, everyone in Little league knows that your best hitter bats fourth, in the "clean-up" spot. That way he can "clean up" all the runners on the bases. So, obviously, Mookie should be batting fourth...or at least third...so more people would be on base for him to drive it. Unfortunately, Cora gave a canned answer with too many holes. He answered that nobody could guarantee him a runner would be on base in front of him if he batted fourth, so he's keeping him leading off. Naturally, instead of just keeping in the throwaway answer it was supposed to be, the EEIdiots pounded on the "guarantee" portion, and that no, there wasn't a guarantee...but there was a better chance.
But...how much better? And is it enough to move Mookie? It's a pretty complex problem, unfortunately, dealing with lots of numbers...but let's try the middle school level here.
The higher a batter hits in a line-up, the more times he comes to the plate over a season. That makes sense. If a pitcher throws a perfect game, everyone bats three times. If he gives up one baserunner, the first guy gets an extra at-bat. So, the number nine hitter comes to the plate around 610 times a year. If your number nine hitter is, say, 2017 JBJ...that means he'll reach base 32.3% of the time...or 197 times. So, as the lead-off guy, Mookie would bat (at least) 197 times with a runner on. (yes, some of those are HR that don't leave a guy on base, and sometimes the #8 batter will still be on base even if the #9 guy makes an out. But, keeping it simple...)
What if Mookie hit second, instead, behind Benintendi? The first batter comes to the plate, say, 750 times a year. Tendi reaches base 35.2% of the time...or 265 times. So, that's almost 70 more times that Mookie will bat with a runner on if he hit second than if he leads off.
Ahh, but that's just the first level of analysis.
Because, now you're screwing Tendi. With Mookie hitting first, he was batting with a guy on base 331 times. Now he's batting behind JBJ, meaning he only sees a runner on base those 197 times.
Ouch.
So, add the two together. If the line-up goes Mookie-Tendi, those two batters will hit with runners on 589 times a season. If the order goes Tendi-Mookie, they'll combine to bat with runners on 590 times a season.
So, if you look at those two batters, it doesn't really matter if it's Mookie-Tendi or Tendi-Mookie when it comes to combined at-bats with runners on base.
So, advantage to hitting Mookie first? He gets up more. Not a lot, but about 15 times more a year than batting second. I assume you want your best hitters to hit the most, even if it's just a little bit, right? It also puts a better hitter following JBJ. So, when JBJ does reach base, there's a better chance of taking advantage of the situation (about 10 percentage points better). Cora also said he liked the idea of Mookie being able to start the game off with a bang, and get the pitcher on his heels immediately.
Sounds good so me.
So can we drop the idea of moving Mookie? I'd leave him there for superstition purposes alone. But, when you have the numbers to back it up as well, it becomes a no-brainer.
Now, if you want to ask why JD Martinez isn't batting second...
Friday, March 2, 2018
Marisa Moorhouse Visits Section 36!
Section 36 has another visitor! Marisa Moorhouse is a wonderful dancer, a Red Sox fan, and the current Miss Manchester. Since this
will be her first time competing on the Miss New Hampshire stage, I hoped she would visit with us to discuss those topics, and a few more. Thankfully she agreed. Hope you enjoy what she had to say!
will be her first time competing on the Miss New Hampshire stage, I hoped she would visit with us to discuss those topics, and a few more. Thankfully she agreed. Hope you enjoy what she had to say!
So, let’s see what happens when Marisa Moorhouse visits Section 36!
How did you celebrate winning the Miss Manchester Crown?When I won the title of Miss Manchester 2018, I was so excited to compete at Miss New Hampshire for the first time! I celebrated by eating my favorite food, chicken tenders, from Goldenrod Restaurant where I work.
What has surprised you the most about your time as Miss Manchester?
I was crowned in early August and the most surprising thing about being Miss Manchester is how many people recognize me! I attend Manchester Memorial High School and my first day back to school all of my teachers knew about my title and customers at work always ask if I am Miss Manchester because they saw me in a parade or on social media.
After competing in the Teen program, the upcoming Miss competition will be your first time on the Miss New Hampshire stage. What aspect of that competition are you most nervous about?
I had previously competed in the Outstanding Teen program for a year and now I am a Miss contestant, I am most nervous for swimsuit. It is a big change from doing fitness as a teen!
Your competition talent is lyrical dance. What is your favorite part about dancing on stage?
As a lyrical dancer, there is always a story behind every piece that is performed. My favorite part about performing onstage is that I am able to convey either a story, explain an obstacle in my life, or show a different side of me to the judges.
How did you select your platform, “Moving the World One Dance at a Time”?
My platform: “Moving the World One Dance at a Time” derives from a not-for-profit organization that I created called “Art In Motion.” Art In Motion is a free dance class that I teach for elementary school children who cannot afford dance or have dreams of dancing on a big stage! We get together once a week to put together a showcase for their school to see, it is an amazing experience and the kids absolutely adore dancing together.
I noticed you recently dressed up as Elsa for an appearance at an ice castle. Which Disney character would you most want to be in real life?
Dressing up as Elsa at the New Hampshire Ice Castles was so much fun but I would have to say that my favorite Disney character is Alice from Alice in Wonderland. I would love to be Alice in real life because she is always looking for a new adventure and loves meeting new friends along the way. We are both imaginative, curious, and very clumsy!
Who is your favorite current Red Sox player? Why?
My favorite current Red Sox player is Andrew Benintendi, or Benny Biceps. He is a consistent and productive hitter and has great defense, especially for being a rookie.
If you can’t sit is Section 36, where do/would you like to sit to watch a Red Sox game?
If I cannot sit in Section 36, you will find me sitting in the Green Monster! It is a perfect target for right handed batters so maybe I could catch a ball.
What are you most looking forward to about the upcoming 2018 Red Sox season?
I am looking forward to seeing how Alex Cora, the Red Sox’s new manager, will do as it will be his first season with the team.
----
I'm looking forward to that too!
As usual, I want to thank Marisa for visiting with us. These interviews are always so much fun. I also want to thank her for sending along the pictures to go along with the interview. They went so well with the answers.
As Marisa continues her time as Miss Manchester, I encourage you to follow her on the official Facebook page.
And, of course, I want to wish Marisa luck this summer when she competes for the Miss New Hampshire crown. There will be quite a collection of Section 36 visitors joining her on stage. Could she come out on top on her first try?
Thanks again Marisa, and good luck!
Friday, February 23, 2018
Kaley Missert Visits Section 36!
Section 36 has another visitor! Kaley Missert is a talented musician, a Red Sox fan, and the current Miss Liberty. I was
thrilled when she agreed to visit with us to discuss those topics, and a few more. Hope you enjoy what she had to say!
thrilled when she agreed to visit with us to discuss those topics, and a few more. Hope you enjoy what she had to say!
So, let’s see what happens when Kaley Missert visits Section 36!
How did you celebrate winning the Miss Liberty crown?
I celebrated winning by going out to a local restaurant in Concord with some friends that came to cheer me on at the competition! It was really nice after a long day competing being able to relax and catch up with them.
What has surprised you the most about your time as Miss Liberty?
One thing that has really surprised me about being Miss Liberty has been how close the community of Concord is! I grew up in Southern New Hampshire so I have only really been up to the State’s Capitol on special occasions. However, at every event I’ve done up at Concord so far during my year everyone in the community has been very supportive of each other, as well as my journey to Miss New Hampshire.
What have you learned from your past pageant experiences that will help you at the Miss New Hampshire competition?
If I have taken away one big lesson from competing so far, it’s to just take a step back to relax and enjoy myself! I truly do love competing and have met some amazing people through this organization: from local directors, the board, other contestants, and everyone in between!
How did you select your platform, “Devon Nicole House”?
Devon Nicole’s House is a charity that is very near and dear to my
heart. It was actually opened in June of 2004 by my parents Thomas and Deanna Missert in memory of my younger sister, Devon Nicole. Devon Nicole’s House has provided a “home away from home” for hundreds of families who have children seeking treatment at Boston Children’s Hospital from all 50 states, as well as from nations around the world. Taking trips to Devon Nicole’s House to drop off home cooked meals, greeting cards, and other donations from local businesses is one of my favorite things to do. Even just going to the house to visit with staff and families is truly an amazing experience.
You play the piano for the talent portion of competitions. How do you decide which piece you'll be playing?
I take a lot of different aspects into consideration while choosing my piece! I love playing more technically difficult pieces and I absolutely love classical music. However, at the same time I want to make sure I play a piece that will grab the audience’s and judge’s attention with entertainment value! Usually, I try to aim for a piece somewhere in between. I’m very excited for this year’s selection!
You’re also an accomplished French Horn player. What do you like most about that instrument?
That’s a tough question! I really appreciate classical music and the Horn has a lot of great pieces of literature to read! I’ve had the opportunity to play a lot of amazing pieces throughout the years including The Planets Suite by Gustav Holst and Festive Overture by Shostakovich. I am currently working on Mozart’s third horn concerto in Eb as well as Tchaikovsky’s 5th symphony, which features the horn. However, one of my favorite parts about being involved with music in general has got to be the community! I’ve met so many great and talented people from different ensembles I’ve played in, festivals and workshops I’ve performed in, and more! Having the opportunity to work with such talented musicians on a daily basis from my peers to my professors is quite inspiring.
Who was your favorite Red Sox player growing up? Why?
My favorite Red Sox player growing up was definitely David Ortiz! He helped reverse the curse and he was really prolific in the community as well as a great player and role model. His efforts both on and off the field are outstanding. It’s hard not to look up to him!
What is your favorite Red Sox memory?
My favorite Red Sox memory has got to be going to see a game
with my senior class right before graduation in 2016! It was so awesome going to Fenway with the people that I grew up in one big group. Not only did we get to celebrate a Sox win, but all of our successes throughout the year as well!
What are you most looking forward to about the 2018 Red Sox?
I’m looking forward to see how Alex Cora takes control of the team! The last time the Red Sox had a new manager they won the world series, so I am hoping there will be a similar result!
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I like the sound of that plan!
As always, I want to thank Kaley for visiting. I’m flattered she agreed to spend the time with us. I also want to thank her for sending along the fantastic pictures that accompany the interview. They matched up perfectly with the answers.
As Kaley continues her time as Miss Liberty, I encourage you to follow her on the official Facebook page.
And, of course, I want to wish Kaley luck this summer when she competes for the Miss New Hampshire crown. At this point, more than half the competitors on stage will have visited Section 36. How awesome would it be for one of them to come out on top?
Thanks again Kaley, and good luck!
Friday, February 16, 2018
Ashley Marsh Visits Section 36!
Section 36 has another visitor! Ashley Marsh is a dancer, a Red Sox fan, and the current Miss Granite State! I was flattered when
she quickly agreed to visit with us to discuss those topics, and a few more. I hope you enjoy what she had to say as much as I did.
So, let’s see what happens when Ashley Marsh visits Section 36!
How did you celebrate winning the Miss Granite State Crown?
My birthday was actually two days before the pageant so in a way this was a great birthday present! So, from celebrating my birthday and my Miss Granite State win I went out to dinner with family and some of the other local titleholders after the pageant and then me and my mom celebrated the next day by going to see “Recycled Percussion” up in Plymouth! It was a great weekend full of fun activities!
Is there a specific goal you’d like to accomplish during your time as Miss Granite State?
A goal I would like to accomplish for my year as Miss Granite State would be to do as much volunteer and service work I can. I want to give back to my community even more than I did last year. Also, I want to give it my all and my best effort come Miss New Hampshire week and really lay all I have during every phase of competition.
What did you learn from your past pageant experiences that will help you at the next Miss New Hampshire Competition?
The biggest thing personally for me is to not dwell on the past pageants. Those are already behind me so I just need to move forward and focus on what is in front of me now and do the best I
possibly can with that and always grow!
How did you select your platform: “Kettlebells4Kids – Bringing the Power of Fitness to Homeless Children”?
I chose my platform because it was something that brought two things I love together: fitness and helping children. I found out about my platforms organization through doing CrossFit and when I first got into pageants this seemed like the perfect fit for platform for me.
What is your personal fitness routine?
My personal fitness routine is a CrossFit class every day! One thing I love about CrossFit is it is something different every day and you never know what to expect. I am more motivated to work out this way, I found myself bored just doing similar gym routines every day. Plus, with CrossFit it challenges me to push myself and it’s always a killer workout but I feel SO good afterwards!
Your talent is tap dance. What is your favorite part about dancing on stage?
Feeding off the crowd’s energy would have to be my favorite part! I love doing tap routines that are to an upbeat song that will make the crowd basically want to get up in dance in their seat so when I hear them clapping and cheering throughout my number, I feel like I really give it my all and wish I could stay on that stage forever! The crowd’s reaction after my preliminary Miss NH performance last year was one of the best feelings I have ever felt.
Who is your favorite current Red Sox player? Why?
My current favorite Red Sox player would have to be Mookie Betts! He is a really hard worker and not only is he good in the outfield he is also really good at bat. I think it’s really cool too how he has adjusted really well from being an infielder to now playing in the outfield. I also love that he is known for being a really good bowler (lol)!
If you can’t sit is Section 36, where do/would you like to sit to watch a Red Sox game?
Besides sitting in section 36 I would love to either watch a game from the “Green Monster” or right behind the Red Sox dugout!
What are you most excited about with the upcoming 2018 Red Sox season?
I am most excited to see how the new coach Alex Cora is going to be for the team. I think it will be a good change to have a hitting minded coach instead of a pitching minded coach. It could really spice up their offense a bit!!
——
Have to admit, I never considered that managerial change from a pitcher to a hitter. I hope that helps!
As always, I want to thank Ashley for doing this interview. She did a wonderful job. I also want to thank her for providing so many great pictures. They really make the interview much more enjoyable. Don’t you agree?
As Ashley continues her time as Miss Granite State, I encourage you to follow her on the official Facebook page. You should also follow her on Instagram from both the Miss Granite State account, as well as her personal account. That will make sure you don’t miss a thing!
And, of course, I want to wish Ashley luck this summer when she competes for the Miss New Hampshire crown. That competition is turning into an exclusive Section 36 event with all the former visitors that will be on stage. How awesome would it be for a Section 36 visitor to come out on top?
Thanks again Ashley, and good luck!
Tuesday, October 31, 2017
Was Alex Cora any Good?
For some reason Alex Cora’s name has been mentioned a lot lately in Red Sox Nation. Since it’s been a while, I thought it might be fun to take this chance to dive back into the scorebooks and see how he performed in games when I was in Fenway Park.
How did he do? See for yourself.
Not too bad. Not too bad at all.
Granted, I had limited exposure to Cora games. Only nine times did he take the field while I was keeping score, and it appears that the last two were as defensive replacements at the end of games.
So, 19 at-bats isn’t exactly an appropriate sample size. But, what a sample it was! Apparently if I was in the park for every one of Cora’s starts, he’d be polishing off his Hall of Fame speech.
Despite the fact that he went hitless in five of the nine games I saw (including the two DR games) he did well enough it the others to average out to a .421 clip. That’s not all. Even going homerless, he was able to slug over .600 while I was watching. With his 1.053 OPS, he was clearly more than a defensive guru. He should have been hitting in the middle of the order.
Obviously, I didn’t exactly catch a representative sample of Alex Cora’s career. But, that’s fine. I’m always glad to see players on the Red Sox perform well.
Hopefully he does the same as Red Sox manager while I’m in the park. I guess we’ll find out!
How did he do with you in the park?
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