Here's What Will Happen

Predictions are tricky, especially for a short series. There isn’t as much time for “everything to even out” before the results come in. Over the course of an entire season, it’s easier to say “they’re a 90-win team” and predict something close to that. You just assume that they’re going to face a certain number of the opposing team’s aces, and a number of their number five guys. The Sox would blow a couple game, and have a couple handed to them.

But, this isn’t like that anymore. This is more like predicting a Patriots season. Sure, you can say the Pats are a 10-win team. But, there’re only 16 games to look at. So you should also look at it game by game. Which six games do you actually think they’ll lose? Which ten will they win?

That’s where we are with a five-game series. It would be easy to look at the series and say something like, “It’ll be a close series, but the Astros are slightly better. So, Astros in five.” Or something like, “The Sox bullpen gives them a slight edge, so Sox in five.” But, that’s assuming there’s time for water to find its own level. That all the little plusses and minuses will work themselves out.

But there’s not.

Which is why it all comes down to Chris Sale.

If this was 1999 or 2000, picking the Sox would be a no-brainer. I don’t care who the opposing team was. The Red Sox had Pedro Martinez who was going to win two games in a five game series. So, now it was a matter of the Sox pulling out one of the other three games. That seemed reasonable. Even if it meant Pedro coming out of the bullpen to win game five.

So, will Chris Sale do that? Can we assume Sale will win his two games, and just worry about the other two? How about Drew Pomeranz? Because for the Astros to win the series, they have to win at least one game started by one of them. The Astros won the four-game series to end the season, but they didn’t win the Pomeranz start. If the Sox only use three starters, that means the Astros have to win two games they start. I’m not willing to discount it, but that’s a pretty tall order.

In a short series, the little things also come into play. Like base running. Years ago, I remember an Angels-Yankees series where the Angels decided they were going to take an extra base on any ball hit to Bernie Williams and his noodle arm. It was embarrassing. They went first to third on every hit. They turned singles into doubles. It was so easy. Now, while I don’t think the Astros have a Williams equivalent, I think the Red Sox aggressiveness on the base paths will help them here. When one run can make all the difference, their ability to steal a run with aggressive base running is very important.

As is their defense. It’s the opposite of aggressive base running. They have the ability to stop the Astros in their tracks. The Red Sox catchers are good at stopping base stealers, and the outfield will gun you down if you chance it. If doubles are turned into singles, or outs, that’s huge game by game.

With those opposing qualities both favoring the Sox, it becomes much more clear. I can see the Astros taking one game in Houston, really just because. But, I don’t think they win a game in Fenway. 

Which is why I’m picking the Red Sox to win in four games.