It’s becoming clear that the Red Sox never had/have any intention
of extending Jon Lester. Unless it was to the contract they offered in the
spring. They weren’t going to make that kind of commitment to a pitcher as old
as Lester is. Whether they never want to sign a pitcher who is 30, or don’t
want to sign a contract that ends when a pitcher is 35, Lester is too old. This
begs the question:
How do you expect to have elite talent?
After all, no matter when you sign a player, aren’t you going
to be signing them up to their 35ish year old season? Right now, Lester would
get a 5-7 year deal pushing him past 35. But, if you went after him two years
ago, wouldn’t it take a 7-9 year deal? So you’d still be paying for the 35 year
old season? Any elite free agent is going to be looking for the contract to
take him to his mid-30’s. So, if you decide you never want to do that, you’ll
never have elite talent. Is there a chance in hell that plan could work?
Well, it sort of did last year.
Isn’t that the year that makes one think the strategy at
least has a chance? Everyone on the team was either a young guy at the end of
his initial contract, or an older free agent on a short term deal. Two
exceptions come to mind. Lackey is an older free agent who was towards the end
of his deal. And Pedroia, whose disaster of an extension might be the straw
that finally broke the camel’s back. Other than that, the team looked like what
the team is now becoming.
They’re setting up to have a young core. Bogaerts and Bradley
and Middlebrooks and Holt and Vazquez and Betts and Workman and De La Rosa.
They’re the ones filling the roles that Lester and Ellsbury and Pedroia filled
in 2007 and morphed into in 2013. The young group that plays a role one year,
and leads a few years later, just before their contract expires and they want
big deals. Then you fill it in with short term vets. Whether it’s Schilling and
Lowell, or Victorino and Napoli.
From there, it’s just changing the names. Lester leaves, so
you get a prospect/pick in return. In a few years, Middlebrooks is shown the
door, without so much as an offer of an 8-year deal. Then Bogaerts. You just
have to hope that with all your extra prospects and picks, you can find enough
quality to keep the team stocked with talent. From there, you can add key
pieces, and depth.
That’s the one thing that separates this plan from, say, the
Rays and A’s. There’s money available. They can overpay Victorino for a short
deal. They can pay Carp more than he’d get elsewhere to be a key player on the
bench. The money can be used to get you depth. Something “small market” teams
can’t do. So, there’s the turnover and flexibility of the Rays, with the depth
of the Yankees. It’s an interesting theory.
The main flaw is depending on prospects. Sure, the pure mass
of them increases your odds. Right now the list of Sox top prospects is longer
than I can ever remember. The hope is that one of them is a stud, and three of
them are damn good. The rest are roster filler. That’s something you can build
around. Don’t get the stud? It’s much much tougher. Get one fewer all-star?
That’s a problem.
It’s an interesting idea. I don’t know if it can work. I
hate depending on prospects. They’re way too risky for my blood. But maybe,
just maybe, the sheer volume of prospects they get from this plan assures the
success. Maybe it could work.
It kind of already did.
There is another way to add talent with this plan also. The opposite of what we are doing now. If we were winning Ben could go after talent with some of those many prospects that are being stockpiled. I'm kind of wondering if we shouldn't get rid of some now before we lose them to the rule 5.
ReplyDeleteYou'll never hear me argue against trading three prospects for one star just to fish or cut bait.
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