I’m not a “prospects” guy. I’m a proven talent sort of guy.
I will trade prospects for proven talent any day of the week. In the right sort
of deal, of course. I’m not talking about trading a young star for a middle
reliever on his last legs. (Although, I will always think the Bagwell trade
wasn’t nearly as bad as people have revised history to make it.) I’m talking
about getting quality young talent back in exchange for potential young talent.
Think Pavano and Armas for Pedro. Or Ramirez and Sanchez for Beckett. So, when
I’ve been reading all the prospect rankings that various outlets have been
releasing, I start to daydream a little bit. When I saw that the Sox have seven
prospects in the ESPN top 100, my initial reaction was, “Woohoo! Load up the
truck for Mike Trout!”
Of course, that wasn’t a realistic reaction. That trade
wouldn’t happen. Or, would it?
Just for fun, let’s dive into fantasy land. The rumor is
that Theo once offered the Mariners their pick of four or five player for Felix
Hernandez. What if Ben Cherington called up the Angels and said, “We want Mike
Trout. You can pick five players to have back in trade.”
On the ESPN list, the top five prospects (who you would
assume the Angels would pick) are #2 Xander Bogaerts, #42 Henry Owens, #51
Bradley Jr, #53 Garin Cecchini, and #56 Blake Swihart.
That would leave two players left on the top 100 list,
Mookie Betts, and Matt Barnes. Two players on the top 100 is a slightly below
average farm system, if you assume each team should average 3. In reality,
since the best teams have 5-7 players, having two would rank you pretty high.
So, even after dumping the farm, you’d still be left with a decent farm.
I know what the initial reaction probably is. “You can’t
touch Bogaerts!” And, I can understand that. For one thing, it would leave a
physical hole at short for 2014. You’d need to sign Drew to plug the new hole.
Bogaerts also has the potential to be a special player. But, you’d be getting a
player back who has shown that he is a special player. I don’t think you can
get too upset about that.
Owens could end up being a #2 or #3 starter. But, the
rotation is pretty full at the moment, with Workman and Doubront ready to fill
up some spots for the long haul. If Lester gets his extension, rotation help
suddenly isn’t urgent.
Bradley could be good, but you’re getting a CF in the trade,
remember? Cecchini is blocked a bit by Middlebrooks, so that wouldn’t hurt too
much. Swihart could be a good catcher, but the Sox have another good catcher in
the system. And, that’s it.
You’d miss Bogaerts, but have Trout and two of the top100
prospects left.
I wonder if the Angels would make that deal.
But, that’s not even the point.
That trade, where you empty the farm system, doesn’t look
terrible. So, why not some lesser deals? What about trading two of them for a
nice young player?
Let’s take this farm system out for a spin, and see what it
can get us. This is an opportunity. Most of the other teams with good farm
systems are good for a reason. The major league team is terrible, so they get
lots of high draft picks. The Astros have the best system. But, they have way
too many holes to start trading 4-for-1. The Sox don’t have “too many” holes.
So, trimming the fat makes a lot of sense. Maybe get a star left fielder. Maybe
swap three pitchers for one pitcher. Let’s focus.
And maybe give the Angels a call, just in case.