Daisuke Matsuzaka Live

While I was celebrating Dice-K’s birthday a couple days ago, I was wondering how often I saw he play live. So, I looked it up. As it turns out, I saw him pitch in person five times. Looking it over, I noticed something. I now understand why I never had much of a problem with him. Take a look at the results.

Those are pretty darn good numbers.

No wonder I don’t remember myself being insanely frustrated by his long starts. I probably didn’t see many of them. Sure, he gave up three or four walks a couple times. And he gave up seven hits in one appearance. But he didn’t give up any runs. Typical Matsuzaka.

And look at those numbers projected over a season. 19-6? That’s insane. A 2.16 ERA while striking out 237 guys? That’s a monster season. That’s the guy the Red Sox thought they were getting. That’s the performance that they were expecting. Maybe even the numbers they were hoping for.

It’s just that he only did it while I was watching. That may have skewed my judgement of his time with the Sox. Or, maybe, it simply allowed my to be more objective about him. I wasn’t tainted with horrible performances. I had a solid base to work from. How about you?

How did Daisuke perform when you were in the park?

Happy 36th Birthday Daisuke Matsuzaka!

Today we wish a very Happy Birthday to former Red Sox pitcher, and international sensation, Daisuke Matsuzaka!

Very few players in the history of the Red Sox, or baseball, or any sport ever, have arrived with the sort of fanfare and expectations that Daisuke joined the Red Sox with. Dice-K was a superstar in Japan, but that was putting it lightly. If you were born in Japan in the same academic year as Daisuke was, you’re considered to be in the “Matsuzaka Generation”. It’s like the Red Sox signing “X”. His spring training starts were covered better than some World Series games. He actually had to announce which type of pitch he would throw as his first pitch. That’s coverage!

So, it’s not surprising that he was considered to have had an underwhelming career in Boston. Sure, he won 15 games in his rookie season, and helped bring the Sox to the 2007 World Series Championship. Sure, he went 18-3 the following year with a 2.90 ERA. (Seriously, did you remember he did that?) He was supposed to come over and use his gyro-ball to strike out every batter he faced. Because he didn’t, he was doomed.

People were also frustrated by him. He was a nibbler. He put a lot of guys on base. He walked the bases loaded more times than people want to remember. I don’t know why. It’s possible he couldn’t control the MLB bass as well as the one in Japan. Maybe he could nibble in Japan more because the Legend got all the strike calls. Or, maybe it was all calculated. He always threw a TON of pitches in Japan. Maybe he was used to pitching carefully to the dangerous guys and then just striking out the less dangerous ones. Maybe he was using the same strategy that Bill Belichick might use. Sure, I’ll walk the bases loaded, because I know I can strike out the next three. But, in MLB, the pitch counts caught up to him. When he was going five innings a start to keep the counts down, he wasn’t very helpful to the Sox. 

But, I for one enjoyed his time with the Sox. I got to see him pitch live five times, and feel lucky to have done so.

Plus, the guy drove in a run during a World Series the Sox won. How can you not love that?

Happy 36^th Daisuke Matsuzaka!

Newton and the Media

I know I've said it before. But, with it being an election year, I have a new example.

People have been suggesting that where you get your campaign money from will influence how a person will act as president. Bernie Sanders will apparently fight for the little people because his donations have come in little amounts. Hillary Clinton will apparently side with Wall Street because she gets money from them. That's the base assumption, and the candidates have to fight for, or against, that assumption.

So, I find it interesting that nobody thinks the media is swayed by the people that contribute to them. 

Of course they are.

Cam Newton is bing blasted for being a baby. Or a sore loser. Why? Because he walked out of a press conference. So, because he wouldn't answer questions about losing asked by people with no involvement in the game, he's a sore loser. The fact that he congratulated Peyton Manning, who was actually involved in the game, and was very humble in that exchange is no matter. He was short with the media! He needs to learn how to act. Apparently, he needs to learn to help the media do their jobs for them.

It's nothing new, of course. Think back on the Red Sox to players who were "grumpy" or "aloof" or "not fit for Boston." JD Drew. Daisuke Matsuzaka. What was their fault? They didn't fill reporter's notebooks with easy quotes. They didn't make the stories write themselves. So, they were blasted for it. Why can Dustin Pedroia do no wrong even though his selfishness has hurt the team over and over? Because he's free flowing with as many quotes as reporters would like.

Why do we stand for this? 

Why don't we insist that people reporting on the Sox distance themselves from the players. After all, it's not like we need quotes to read a story. I can see that the Red Sox lost a game by looking at the score. A reporter can probably tell me why they lost without a player saying they need to "do better" next time. So, why not cut them off completely? 

Why do we continue to let the media insist that people who treat them better are somehow the type of players we need? If Cam Newton's teammates and opponents think he's a professional, why do we let the media say otherwise based solely on how he treats them? They are not the most important thing in sports.

No matter what they say.

When is the Media Going to Admit that They’re the Only Ones with a Problem with Manny?

Remember that game? The one when Manny was on the bench on trade deadline day? There were rumors that he was being offered around to other teams. Nobody was sure if that meant he was gone, or not. But, he wasn’t in the line-up. Then, the deadline passed. Still nobody, especially those fans in Fenway, knew if he had been traded. Then, he popped out of the dugout to pinch hit. The park absolutely erupted. The standing ovation was one of the biggest I’ve ever heard, and I was just watching on TV. Of course, Manny responded by singling up the middle to drive in what would be the game winning run.

Remember what they said the next day? The EEIdiots said the fans weren’t cheering Manny. They were cheering the situation. If Adam Dunn, or anyone else popped out of the dugout in that situation, he would have gotten the same ovation. Sure. I’ve been in Fenway any number of times when a pinch hitter was announced. I don’t recall many standing ovations while he’s in the on-deck circle.

Would you believe they said the same thing today? Literally, the exact same thing.

As part of the wonderful ceremony celebrating the 2004 World Champions, Manny was introduced to a thunderous ovation. Again, the EEIdiots said it wasn’t for him. They were cheering everyone who was introduced. The fact that his was so loud wasn’t because it was him. It was because he was last.

Sure it was.

Why can’t they just admit it?

People like Manny, because as much as they tried, they couldn’t make us hate him. They tried to convince us he was quitting on the team. After all, that last year, in 100 games he quit to the tune of a .299/20/68 line. Along with a .926 OPS. I wish every player would quit on the team like that. After all, even ignoring the games played, those 20 HR would have been third on last year’s Red Sox. His .299 BA would have been just below Dustin Pedroia’s .301. The .926 OPS? Only David Ortiz had a better one last season. Quit on the team? Please.

Frankly, it’s a little weird, because Manny is the type of player the media usually loves. He’s quirky. Has some funny stories. What a player to adore. Really, he only had one flaw.

He didn’t talk to the media. So, once again, players who make the media jobs easier (See Pedroia, Dustin and Ortiz, David) are praised above all others. Players who don’t (See Drew, JD and Matsuzaka, Daisuke) are bad mouthed and run out of town. If they can make us all hate them on the way out, even better. But, it didn’t work with Manny.

But, they just can’t stop trying.

Red Sox 1-36: 18 is for…

18 wins by Daisuke Matsuzaka in 2008

You forgot about that, didn’t you? You completely erased Dice-K’s 2008 season from your memories. But, that’s too bad. Maddening Matsuzaka went 18-3 that year. That’s pretty impressive.

Or is it? Basically, this season is the perfect analogy for who Dice-K is as a pitcher. Yes, he got 18 wins. But, we all know that wins mean very little when it comes to pitching ability. What about some other numbers? He had a 2.90 ERA that year, third in the league. But, he only threw 167.2 innings. He led the league by holding batters to a .211 average. But, he walked a league leading 94 batters. He didn’t give up a hit all year with the bases loaded. But, he loaded the bases fourteen times that year. What did all that mean?

I’ve always thought that Dice-K was very honest with himself when it came to facing batters. He knew which hitters he could get out, and which ones he couldn’t. He didn’t mind base runners. He knew that having people on base didn’t matter in the least if he struck out the next guy to end the inning. It looked like he knew that there were three or four guys in every line-up he knew he’d have trouble with. He also knew there were three or four guys he had no problem with. So, like any decent pitcher, he would pitch carefully to those he had trouble with so he could attack those he didn’t. So what if you walk three guys to load the bases if the next three strike out? It was like every batter he faced was either Manny Ramirez, or Jose Iglesias. Any pitcher would pitch carefully to Manny. Don’t give him a pitch to hit. If he makes an out hitting a bad pitch, great. If he takes the walk, that’s fine too. If Manny was followed by Iglesias in the line-up every day, Manny would be walked plenty of times by every pitcher. That was Dice-K.

Now, he ended up throwing plenty of pitches doing that. Which is why he only threw the 167 innings. But, did that come from the American way of handling him? Looking at his numbers in Japan, he certainly walked his fair share, and threw plenty of pitches. Remember the legendary high school game where he threw 250 pitches? Even in 17 innings, that’s a ton of pitches. Nobody worried about that then.

So, wrap that all together and what do you get? 18 wins for the Sox during the season. It may have been annoying to watch. But, was it all done with a plan?

18 is for 18 wins from Daisuke Matsuzaka in 2008.

The Red Sox Should Sign Dice-K

What if the gave him one year, and gave him full control of his pitching?

I’ve mentioned something similar to this before. I thought it was worth trying when he just had a year or two left on his deal. Now, I think it’s an even better idea.

Basically, Daisuke Matsuzaka was a legend in Japan. Probably still is. He was a superstar that had done everything he could before coming to the United States. When he was first joining the Red Sox, there were few questions about what he would become. The only ones that were out there, though, related to the transition to the American game. How would he handle a five-man rotation? He’s used to throwing a lot more between starts than major league pitchers do. He’s not used to being taken out of games after just a little trouble. How will that all work?

It doesn’t look like it worked all that well. The Red Sox tried to turn him into and American starter, and destroyed what they had. Before his rookie season, SI ran an article on him. In it the author mentioned that all pitchers have shoulder trouble that shows up in an MRI. It’s just what happens. Pitchers can pitch long times with terrible looking MRI’s. Not Dice-K, though. Despite the ton of pitches he threw in Japan, his MRI was clean as a whistle. Then, four years into his American career, he needs Tommy John surgery? Maybe he was doing something that worked for him. Maybe he was doing lots of things that worked for him. Maybe they should let him try it again.

So, sign him for one year. He can’t make that much, right? He was only making seven or eight million a year with the Sox. That’s the going rate for a platoon left fielder. So, sign him. Then, give him free reign. If he thinks it’s better to only pitch every six days, let him. The rotation can work around it. If he can pitch better knowing he won’t have a quick hook, don’t give him one. Tell him he’s pitching seven innings, and exactly seven innings, in every start. It’s up to him to make it seven innings. If he throws 70 pitches, good for him. If he throws 170, he’ll be tired. But, he’s pitching seven. If he wants to throw 100 pitches on his off day, let him. If he wants to run seventeen miles the day of his start, let him. See what happens.

Maybe he’ll crash and burn. Maybe the Sox will lose almost all of his starts. Thank goodness he’ll just be the fifth starter. The Sox lose most of those starts anyway. Chances are, he’ll win a few just by luck anyway.

But maybe, just maybe, he’ll respond to the familiarity. Maybe he’ll be the Daisuke he could be.

Wouldn’t that be worth the risk?

From a Night Owl

Not too long ago, Night Owl was complaining about his 2011 Allen & Ginter set. It was taking too long to complete the darn thing. I was ashamed to realize that I was sitting on a stack of A&G’s, and hadn’t checked his lists. I was able to find a dozen or so cards he needed, and gladly sent them his way. He was nice enough to send me something back in return. Let’s take a look at some of the package I received.

The two 2006 Opening Day cards complete my Red Sox team set. Fantastic! It never works that the last two guys you need are the two biggest stars. But, that’s the way it fell this time. The 2009 Topps Matsuzaka card is great. It’s always nice to remember that Dice-K really had a wonderful 2009 season. Probably a nice card for Phillies fans too. The Team USA card is a lot of fun. If I’m not mistaken, this is the play where Jeter tried to twist Youk’s ankle. As National Chicle cards go, the JD Drew is near the top. It’s a very nice likeness of Drew, and the background is clean. Wonderful.

Of course, I skipped over the crown jewel. The 2011 Topps Lineage ’75 mini relic. What an amazing card. I share Night Owl’s admiration of the 1975 Topps set. I think it’s the best set out there, and it is the only full set I’m currently trying to complete. A mini version of Youk would have been enough. But, the jersey just makes it incredible.

So, a hearty thank you to Night Owl for the wonderful shipment.

Hope that A&G set gets finished soon.

Card of the Week: 2009 Topps Ticket to Stardom Daisuke Matsuzaka #124

I’ve said it before. There’s only so much you can do with a rectangular piece of cardboard with a picture on it. A border, no border. A color? A stripe? That’s pretty much it. So, I like it when a company goes out on a limb a bit.

No, this isn’t a huge design stretch. A white border, a foil stripe. But, I like the idea of the “ticket” theme. It’s something a little different. So, there’s a little barcode on the top. (Has anyone tried to scan it?) The important information is set up like a ticket stub. Design-wise it has the feel of a Red Sox ticket. That’s pretty cool. Not earth shattering, but cool. In this case, it may not have chosen the most flattering picture of Matsuzaka to portray. But, it is a nice view of him about to deliver a pitch.

Can’t find much to complain about with this card.

Rolling of the Dice

Before the season got underway, I made a suggestion regarding Daisuke Matsuzaka. I felt that with the limited time left on his contract, the Sox should set him free. I felt they should tell him that he was free to follow whichever routine he’d like between starts. He could stay in the game as long as he wanted, no matter how many pitches he had thrown. Since he was going to be a free agent soon anyway, the Sox shouldn’t worry about an arm injury. It was time to let Daisuke be Daisuke, and see what happened. I can’t help but wonder if that’s not exactly what happened.

A couple starts ago against the Rays, Matsuzaka got lit up. That’s putting it gently. He couldn’t get anyone out, and everyone kept scoring. But, he was doing what the Red Sox (and their fans) always wanted him to do. He stopped nibbling. He threw first-pitch strikes. He pitched to contact. And, it failed miserably. There was even some speculation at the time that it was exactly as he planned. He was showing the Red Sox that their way didn’t work. They should get off his back, and let him nibble and otherwise pitch exactly as he wished. Whether or not that conversation actually took place, you can’t say it hasn’t brought results. Since that debacle at Fenway? Matsuzaka hasn’t been scored upon. He hasn’t been throwing first-pitch strikes all the time. But, he’s been getting outs, pitching scoreless ball, and getting wins. Just what you’d want from a pitcher. Interesting.

Beyond Matsuzaka, what a swing through the rotation this has been, eh? The only runs in the last five games coming on a single two-run homer. Wow. The starters have been pitching well, and pitching deep. It’s even more than anyone could have hoped for. Yes, I know, it’s only been a week. But, it’s been one amazing week.

When you’re trying to turn a season around, sometimes it’s the little things that make all the difference. Carl Crawford finally has a home run. Now, when he looks at his stats (in HD) on the scoreboard, they won’t be flashing that zero anymore. The Sox have been winning, and he’s been slowly contributing. That’s a pretty good sign for the future.

It’s been nice to witness the power of the fully operational Red Sox.

Even if it’s just been a week.

Personal Preference

The question is back. Josh Beckett pitched poorly with Jarrod Saltalamacchia behind the plate. He has dominated with Jason Varitek back there. Daisuke Matsuzaka got lit up, and I mean lit up, with Salty calling the pitches. Dice-K mowed hitters down when Tek was calling the shots. So, the question has to be posed. Should Tek catch those two all the time?

Quick answer. Absolutely. A related question. Why not?

I’m pretty sure that the main purpose of the Red Sox is to win games. It’s not to prepare people for the future. It’s not to make pitchers non-wusses. It’s to win baseball games. So, if having Varitek behind the plate helps them win games, he should be back there. I don’t care that Beckett should be able to pitch to whomever is back there. I don’t care that Salty is a fine catcher who should be trusted. I really don’t care. If those two guys pitch better to Varitek, by all means let them. I don’t care if it’s trust. I don’t care if it’s comfort. I don’t care if they just prefer the color of the chest protector. If it works, go with it.

And, yes, I understand that Varitek is a back-up catcher for a reason. I know he’s getting older, and less effective. I understand that he can’t catch every game. But, really, two out of every five seems reasonable to me. At least to start. Once Salty has another half season under his belt with the rest of the staff, he may be able to be integrated into mix for Beckett and Matsuzaka. He may not. I’m OK either way.

It’s not like the Sox would be saying that Salty can’t catch. They’re not saying that Beckett and Dice-K think Salty can’t catch. There’s just a flow there that I see no reason to interrupt. Now, if that schedule starts hurting the team, that’s another issue. But, I don’t see a downside at this point.

Just put the team in the best position to win.

Is it a Rotation, or a Revolution?

It’s just a thought. “Rotate” means to spin about an axis. “Revolution” means to complete a course by a succession of similar events. Oh well. I thought it would be fun to do a quick preview of the various parts of the 2011 Red Sox. I figured a good place to start would be the starting rotation.

I make this comparison a lot. But, only because it’s so appropriate and fun. In 1999 the Red Sox lost the ALCS. Here are the pitchers who made starts for them in the playoffs. Pedro Martinez, Bret Saberhagen, Ramon Martinez, and Kent Mercker. Really? Mercker was actually the starter for game 1 of the ALCS. How can you not be excited about this year’s crop of pitchers? Sure, Pedro was the best pitcher ever. But, if I were ranking the nine pitchers, after Pedro I’d take this year’s rotation in the next five spots. Beckett-Lester-Buchholz-Lackey-Matsuzaka. It’s certainly a thought for the rest of the league to shudder over.

Beckett is the clear ace of the staff. You can argue whether or not he’s the best pitcher. He may not start on Opening Day. But, if you’re looking for the guy who is the leader of the staff, it’s him. He’s the trendsetter. Everyone else plays off him. It may be an MVP/Player of the Year distinction. But, it’s all about Beckett. Unfortunately, he’s coming off a rough year. But, there are still plenty reasons for hope. First. He was clearly injured last season. He struggled though many starts when he didn’t have his best stuff. It was the inconsistence that was unusual to see from #19. While assuming a pitcher will be completely healthy for an entire year is always a risky idea, it’s not a crazy one. Frankly, unless it’s a 40-year old pitcher with a history of arm trouble, you have to assume healthiness. Otherwise these predictions are meaningless. So, if Beckett is healthy, is that enough? Probably. He’s a proud pitcher. He won’t want to be the third best pitcher on the staff. I expect him to work his tail off to keep up with the youngsters. Will he throw another 2007 season up there? Probably not. I’m not bold enough to predict that. But, should we expect a repeat of his 17-6, 3.86 2009 season? That certainly sounds reasonable. And, I suspect, we’d all love to see that.

If Beckett isn’t the ace, it’s John Lester. The organization has always had high hopes for Lester. He has slowly emerged as a reliable starter the last couple years. As he enters his 27-year old season, the sky is the limit. With the line-up the Red Sox have, and the bullpen behind him, 20 wins should be within reach this year for Lester. Of all the starters, it’s Lester that I feel comfortable knowing what I’m going to get.

Not quite so with Clay Buchholz. He has every ounce of talent that Lester has. He can dominate a game, or stretch of games. But, he only put it all together last year. Only seven months younger than Lester, he was beginning to run out of time. But, he managed to have it click last season. He finished the season second in the league in ERA, almost a run better than Lester, and just a tick off of the lead. That produced a fantastic 17-win season. Which just leaves the one question for Clay. Was last season a progression, or a fluke? I’m expecting a slight slip down as the rest of the league realizes who he is. But a 15-win season should be expected.

What to expect from John Lackey? If only I had any idea. I do know one thing. He’s probably the best number four guy in the league. But, is that a compliment? He had a rough season in Boston. Was it an adjustment to a new city and team? Probably. People don’t just forget how to pitch. I do think people confused “best available” with “best” when they talked about the Lackey signing. Just because he was a key free agent pitcher last off-season doesn’t mean he is a classic ace. With a year under his belt, a more normal season should be on the way.

If Lackey is the best #4 guy, Daisuke Matsuzaka has to be the best #5, right? Once again, though, I have no idea what that will mean. Anybody remember when Dice-K went 18-6 with a 2.90 ERA? I didn’t think so. But, given the ups and downs of his career, would anyone be really shocked? I didn’t think so. Ten wins from your fifth starter is a nice number, and Dice should have that number with room to spare.

Just because predictions are fun:

Beckett 18-7, 3.78

Lester 21-6, 2.93

Buchholz 16-8, 3.10

Lackey 15-9, 3.87

Matsuzaka 13-7, 4.36

What if the Red Sox let Dice-K be Daisuke?

While I was reading Ian Browne’s wonderful book Dice-K, one thought kept sticking in my mind. The book talks a lot about Daisuke Matsuzaka, and his adjustment to the American way of pitching. It talks about his difficulty with pitch counts. It talks about the tough transition from getting “ace” treatment. It talks about the worries that come from not being given the benefit of the doubt. What if the Sox removed all of those issues?

It’s not like Dice-K is the first pitcher to have similar issues. He’s not even the first player to have such complaints. When Eric Gagne came to the Sox for the second half of 2007, he struggled. How, everyone asked, could an elite closer become a less than useful set-up guy? How did he forget to pitch? The answer, of course, was that he still knew how to pitch. He just wasn’t used to the situation. He didn’t like looking over his shoulder. He didn’t like not controlling his destiny. As a closer, you were on the mound until the game was over. If you give up a hit, it’s still your game. If you give up a run, it’s still your game. If you walk the first three batters you face, it’s still your game. So, there was a mental margin for error. When he went to the set-up role, he felt he had to pitch differently. If he gave up a hit to the leadoff guy, was he being removed? Would someone start warming up? How many hits could he allow before getting the hook? It messed with his head, and he was ineffective.

The same thing happens to rookies. Especially in Spring Training. A young player trying to win a job needs to be a lot more perfect then a veteran who is secure with his role. If Ryan Kalish goes hitless this spring, there’s no way he makes the team. If Carl Crawford goes hitless, I’m fairly certain he’ll still be the starting left fielder on April first. There’s a margin for error that Crawford has that Kalish doesn’t. So, if Kalish doesn’t start hitting right away, it will put him under a different set of pressures than Crawford.

That seems to be bothering Matsuzaka. (Or at least it was during his rookie year) He didn’t like looking over his shoulder. He didn’t like knowing that if he threw too many pitches, he was in danger of coming out of the game. If he walked one guy too many, he’d get the hook. In Japan, he got the Pedro treatment. Was there a situation when Pedro was Pedro that he would ever come out in the middle of an inning? Did the manager ever yank him in 1999? Or 2000? That’s what Dice-K was used to. He was always allowed to work himself out of jams, so he didn’t worry as much. He always knew he would get out of it. And, in many of the cases he’s been allowed to try with the Sox, he’s done just that. How many times has he walked the bases loaded only to strike out the side? That’s what he’s used to. That’s when he can let it all go and pitch. If it takes 175 pitches to do it, he’s going to do it. He’s done it before. So, what if the Sox let him?

I’ve always said that babying a pitcher wasn’t necessarily in the team’s best interest. When Pedro was having the best year a pitcher ever had in 1999, he was on a bit of a pitch count. The Sox were preserving his arm so he could pitch longer. Basically, they cut back on the number of pitches the best pitcher in baseball threw in 1999 for the Red Sox so the Phillies could get a couple more innings out of Pedro in 2009. How did that help the Sox? I say spend the bullets while they’re good, and let the other teams worry about him later in his career. So, let’s try it with Dice-K.

The Sox have Matsuzaka under contract for two more seasons. What if they said to him, “The last four years haven’t exactly been stellar. You’re our fifth starter now. You only have two years. So, let’s try it your way.” What if they told him he would never come out of a game unless he asked? Or, he would pitch seven innings every game, whether he was working on a no-hitter, or being lit up. Or even that he would finish every inning he started. What’s the worst that could happen? The Sox might lose a lot of his games? He’s the fifth starter. Lots of teams lose games with their fifth starter. Plus, this is quite a line-up the Sox have. I bet they would win a fair amount of slugfests if they needed to.

He could blow his arm out. Yup. So, they lose an ineffective pitcher for a year or two. From what I hear, he hasn’t really been pitching well enough to worry about that. Some people have actually been saying he should just be cut anyway. Besides, they have Wake or a youngster to fill in if that happens.

What’s the upside? They could get the Matsuzaka they thought they were signing. They could get the only MVP the World baseball Classic has ever had. They could be getting a top half of the rotation guy pitching in the fifth spot. They could get half a season, or a full season, or two seasons of a superb pitcher. They could get the gyroball.

Matsuzaka is still young. It’s not like giving a 43-year old pitcher the green light. He’s only 30. He should be able to withstand being “overworked” for a season. Are the Sox worried about him being worn out in October? Is there a scenario where he would pitch a playoff game? At this point in his career, what are the Red Sox saving him for? Why shouldn’t they take a chance and trust him to know his body? What do they have to lose? Let him go out there and pitch until his arm falls off.

He’ll probably be on another team by then.

Dice-K By: Ian Browne

Hmm. I wonder what this book is about. As the subtitle to the book

proudly declares, it chronicles “The First Season of the Red Sox $100 Million Man.” But, that is cutting things a little short. The book really covers everything leading up to, and including Dice-K’s first season with the Sox. It discusses in detail life-building events like the Koshien tournament. It talks about his time with the Seibu Lions as he honed his craft. It goes into great detail into the posting process where Matsuzaka became eligible to play in the Major Leagues. It discusses the negotiations between him and the Red Sox on that first contract. And, of course, it talks all about his first season in Boston. All that is presented as a way of answering the question, “Who is Dice-K?”

Similar to when I talked about the great book “Becoming Manny”, this book really depends on whether the reader is already a Dice-K fan, or not. If you think Matsuzaka is an overpaid nibbler who “JUST WON’T THROW STRIKES!” this book isn’t going to do much for you. You’ll gloss over it as a list of excuses for why Dice-K doesn’t already have four Cy Young Awards. But, if you think Dice-K is a fine pitcher who is misunderstood, that’s another story. This book will explore the transition from Japan to the United States. It gets into the root of the differences between the Red Sox way and the Matsuzaka way. Why does he throw so many pitches? Why does he look lost sometimes on the mound? Why does that one big inning always seem to get him? It explains that, perhaps, the reason everything seems so foreign with him is because it is. It’s also interesting that the book came out in 2008. I wonder if any of it would be different with three more seasons under his belt? Whether you feel Dice-K has been a boon or a bust, any Red Sox fan should read this book. After reading it, I have a newfound appreciation for Matsuzaka, and what he is as a pitcher. Of course, I was a fan before I started reading.

Rating: 4 bases

Who’s the most disappointed?

There are two sides to every coin. Newton tells us that there’s always an opposite reaction. So, even after the Sox won two of three games in Philadelphia, some people aren’t going to be happy. Some people are worried about the reaction. Who lost the most? There are a couple contenders.

The Phillies, and their fans. When the best thing you can get out of a game is that “we didn’t get no-hit”, that’s a pretty bad day at the park. Your superstar shortstop goes back on the DL with a calf injury. Your ace gets smacked around by a team that is built around pitching and defense. Not a great weekend.

Daisuke Matsuzaka. Chances for no-hitters don’t come around very often. They’re mostly luck, and they’re held with pretty high esteem around baseball circles. To get that close. To have that many balls bounce your way. To be four outs away. To lose it on a bloop hit just out of Scutaro’s reach must be beyond annoying. He’ll have to take solace in the fact that one of the best-pitched games ever was Pedro’s Yankees game in 1999. Not only was that not a no-hitter, it wasn’t even a shutout.

The Boston Media. Can you write doomsday stories after the team wins a series on the road against the defending NL champions? Can you write stories about how maddening Dice-K is to watch after his masterpiece on Saturday? Can you watch Saturday’s game and not write that pitching and defense is a viable way to win a ballgame? Do they even remember how to write with cutting and pasting?

Terry Francona. Do you think he was the only person not on the Phillies hoping for a hit on Saturday? Can you see him projecting the pitches in his head, and wondering he has to keep Dice in for 160 if he’s working on a no-hitter at the time? What about the catchers? Saturday night certainly isn’t going to stop questions as to whether Tek needs to be behind the plate. Tito is forced by the schedule to get Tek into a game, and Dice throws the game of his career? Talk about your bad breaks. How does he possibly put Victor behind the plate for Matsuzaka’s next start? If he does, and Dice pitches poorly, then what? If you make Varitek Dice’s personal catcher, what about Beckett? Where does it end? What about Wakefield? Francona makes the call to send him to the pen. He comes out to fill in for Beckett a bit, and pitches 8 shutout innings to out-duel Roy Halladay? Really? Now what does he do?

Any one of these groups will have a hard time coming out of the weekend with a smile on their face. I’m sure there are even more.

I just can’t think of them.

I’ll Take the Fifth?

Once again, the Sox are faced with the decision on fifth starter. This was quite a debate during spring training, even though I thought it was a pretty easy call. The Sox avoided the whole issue by starting Daisuke Matsuzaka on the DL. Still, some people were surprised to see Wakefield in the 4th spot, with Buchholz in the final slot. That would seem to imply that the Sox had Clay on the hot seat, primed for bullpen duty once Dice came back. That’s why I was surprised to see comments and stories lately saying how Wake was destined to the bullpen. I didn’t think
that the Sox would have changed their mind so quickly. Last night I finally heard that the Sox hadn’t actually made that announcement officially. So, I’m left wondering what level of “official” it is. (Of course, by the time you read this, they’ve probable held a press conference making me look like an idiot.) If it’s the way it will be, I’m also left wondering when Sox management decided they were morons. There are really two questions to look over. Which pitcher, Wake or Buchh, is the better starter, and which pitcher is the better reliever. Let’s tackle the first question first.

Each pitcher pitched very well in their last start, after being less impressive previously. I did see one thing, though, that showed me yet again that Clay not quite ready for the rotation, while Wake is. Clay has a bit too much Derek Lowe in him. Lowe was the master of the unearned runs. Derek was great at getting two outs, and having an error committed behind him. He would then proceed to give up 36 straight hits, with 15 home runs. None of those runs would be earned, though, so his numbers looked great at the end of the day. Looking back, he’d go 5 innings, giving up one run, and you’d think he had a decent day. And, it would be mostly true. It wasn’t his fault that the Sox didn’t get that third out. But, at some point, doesn’t he need to be accountable for the mountain of hits he did allow? The same thing just happened to Clay. The Sox made an error in the field behind him, extending the inning. But, he didn’t stop it there. He buckled, and gave up a slew of unearned runs. Those runs still count. Contrast that with Wake’s game Sunday. The first two batters reach on an error. (Yes, one was later reversed, but you get the point) Right off the bat, runners are at first and second with nobody out, through no fault of his own. Did Wake collapse? Nope. He just went ahead and got the next three guys. I imagine two things would have happened had Clay been on the mound Sunday afternoon. First, the inning would have been an hour longer because of the throws to first base. Second, at least one of those runners would have come home. Wakefield looks more capable of being a starting pitcher to me.

The question of who belongs in the pen is also an easy one. The Sox bullpen needs help. They don’t need a long guy. They need someone who can come into the game in the eighth inning and get outs. I’m sure both pitchers would be able to do that. But, as Wake has often pointed out, the knuckleball sometimes doesn’t knuckle. Sometimes it goes in straight, and leaves the park. If that happens in the second inning, I’m fine with that. If it happens with a one-run lead in the eighth, that’s a problem. I don’t want Wake’s flutterball coming into a close game late. I’d much rather have a guy like Buchholz in that situation. With a guy on third and a small lead, at least I think Clay can concentrate on getting the ball down. He can bear down to keep the run from scoring. Wake just hopes his ball moves. Looks to me like Clay is better suited for the pen.

Frankly, Wakefield has simply earned the right to start. And, no, there isn’t a player who should have a spot he’s not good enough to have. But, this isn’t the case. Wakefield was an all-star last year for cripes sake. For all he’s done for the team, he deserves that shot at 200 wins with the Sox. If Clay wants that fifth slot, he needs to pitch so well that it’s not a question. I don’t care that he’s the starter of the future. He’s not there yet. I’m not about to say that it’s fair to Clay. But, that’s the way it goes sometimes. He’ll be in the ‘pen until another starter gets hurt, or he gets traded. Which, by the way, is the only reason having Clay in the fifth spot makes any sense. If they told Wake, look, we need to trade the kid. He has no value until he can pitch. So, we’re going to have him start the next three weeks. Once San Diego sees him consistently in the rotation, we can trade him away. Then, the spot is yours again.

Provided the kid pitches well this month.

Dice-sKape Artist?

I’ve asked it before, and I’m sure I’ll ask it again. When does luck become skill?

Last night, Daisuke Matsuzaka won his first game of the season. He’s been on the DL for a bit, so that’s not as bad as it sounds. But, it’s still been too long for a pitcher who was supposed to be your #2 or #3 starter. It was classic Dice. He went 5 innings, and walked 3 guys. He gave up 6 hits, and struck out 6. He gave up only one run. You could look at the 6 K’s in 5 innings, and brag about a Pedro-esque 10.8 K/9 inning ratio. His ERA for the game of 1.80 is also stellar. Or, you could look at the base runners and scream at the 1.80 WHIP. Which one is the most meaningful?

Nobody can be as lucky as Daisuke seems to be. Nobody can constantly put runners on base all the time and just happen to have the other team strand them. That really leaves two options. Option A: one day the odds will catch up to him and he’ll get blown out. Option B: he’s good enough to work around people he doesn’t like and attack the ones he can get out. Game by game? Option A is the answer. Look at Papelbon’s game last night. He was pitching fine. But, a bloop hit here, a seeing eye single there, and suddenly the bases are loaded. So, Matsuzaka’s definitely playing with fire having so many people on base all the time. Every once in a while the ground ball is going to be that extra inch away from Pedroia’s glove, and two runs will score. But, over the course of a season? It seems to work out ok. It’s kind of like Wakefield. Sure,
sometimes the ball doesn’t knuckle leading to a three-run homer. But, the rest of the time it’s fine. Sure, sometimes Dice will give up a big inning, but the rest of the time it seems to work out pretty well.

He throws a ton of pitches, thanks to all those base runners. He doesn’t go deep into games, and that’s annoying. It’s a flat out boring game to watch. He’s the last pitcher I want on the mound if I’m on the way to Fenway. But, I have to think that the Sox are glad he’s on the mound every fifth game. I would imagine that the powers that be consider his contract to be a bargain. I’m glad the Sox have him.

At some point, flukes become streaks, which become careers. Right?

Dice- Cy?

I’ll start out by saying that I haven’t looked at other contenders yet. I have no idea how strong a case K-Rod or Cliff Lee or Roy Halladay can make. But, if you look at the numbers Dice-K will put up this year, and compare them to a Cy-standard, they stack up rather nicely.

Last night’s victory put Matsuzaka’s record at 15-2. Not a bad .882 winning percentage. By my count, Dice has about seven starts remaining. Can he go 5-2 in those starts? That puts him at 20-4. Pretty nice starting point for a Cy Young winner. Add to that his strikeout total that is always among the league leaders. His ERA is below three, a rarity these days. (Beckett’s was 3.27 last year when he should have won the award.) His batting average against him is fantastic. He hasn’t allowed a hit with the bases loaded all season. So, the problems? Oh yeah, the walks. The pitch counts. They don’t scream elite pitcher. The number of innings per game are too low to be at the top of the league. Baserunner after baserunner. All very good points. But, isn’t the job of the pitcher to not allow the other team to score?

Remember during the Celtics playoff run when LeBron had a rough series shooting the ball against them, and all the announcers kept asking when the real LeBron was going to show up? And then Kobe had a bad final series, and they all asked when the real Kobe was going to show up. Finally, people started to realize that maybe it wasn’t some lucky coincidence that the two best scorers in the game kept having their worst games against Boston. Maybe it’s that the Celtics defense was doing something right as opposed to LeBron and Kobe doing something wrong. Maybe it’s the same thing with Dice-K. He keeps walking guys, and putting runners in scoring position and everyone keeps wondering when it’s finally going to bite him. Maybe we need to start thinking that it’s something Dice-K is doing right, as opposed to all the batters coincidentally doing something wrong. Last night with the bases loaded, Dice struck out Melvin Mora swinging on a slider that must have been a foot outside. The announcers made a point to say how lucky Dice-K was that Mora helped him out on that pitch. But, what if Randy Johnson had thrown that slider? Isn’t half of the Unit’s game that batters swing at sliders so far off the plate that they sometimes hit the batter? Is Matsuzaka lucky that Mora swung, or so skilled that he made Mora swing?

One thing I used to hear about Manny, and I hear about Youkilis from time to time, is that they don’t mind hitting with an 0-2 count. They don’t stress about letting a pitch go by that they don’t particularly like, even if it’s a called strike. They’d just as soon let those go by and try to get something to handle. Maybe Dice-K does the same thing. What if he sees a batter and thinks, “I’m not thrilled with facing this guy. I’ll pitch around him because it’s better to have the bases loaded and face a guy I know I can get out than try to mess around with someone I’m not comfortable with.” Take last night. I think it was the first inning where he gave up a hit, or two, maybe a walk, and got the bases loaded. The next three batters went strikeout, strikeout, popout. Who’s to say that’s not exactly according to plan? Now, that method does bulk up the pitch count. But, remember, he’s used to throwing pitches and it hasn’t bothered him yet. It bothers the Red Sox, which is why he keeps leaving games early. But, I bet he’d say he’d go another couple innings every game and throw 150 pitches every time out. Who’s to say he’s wrong?

So, just like Pedro Martinez dominates a game differently than Greg Maddux does, maybe Daisuke Matsuzaka dominates differently than both of them. 

The numbers appear to support that idea.

Breakfast with the BoSox

It’s a nice treat to be able to turn on the radio on the way to work and hear a Red Sox game. 99% of morning radio is so awful that I’d prefer a replay of a Red Sox game. This, however, was the real thing. Opening Day in Japan. Admittedly, the point of the trip is a little crazy. How much more money does MLB think it needs? Maybe instead of forcing itself on Japan, it could just not pay Mike Mussina $90 million? But, a Red Sox game under any circumstances is a good thing.

A couple of surprises right off the bat. JD Drew was a late scratch due to back spasms. Replacing him in right field was Brandon Moss…not Coco Crisp. I didn’t know if Coco was still too hurt, or if they just didn’t trust his arm in right. I’m also not sure what to make of Moss. Who is he? Does he have a future with the team? Daisuke Matsuzaka got the nod to start the opener. This was probably only due to the injury to Josh Beckett. I’d have thought about giving him the ball for the first game in Japan anyway, but this was just much cleaner. Dice-K didn’t exactly instill confidence starting off. He had a couple very shaky innings starting off the game. He only gave up two runs in the outing, but looked much worse. His standard control problems popped up as he had base runners all over the place, and his pitch count was soaring into the rising sun. He did settle down and finish off with a couple perfect innings. He even left with the lead, thanks to Manny and Moss. While the bullpen couldn’t hold it, the Sox were able to come back. The big shot in the comeback was a home run by Moss (seriously, how often does that happen) to tie it in the ninth of the A’s closer. It’s amazing how elite closers continue to mean nothing against the Sox. Manny finally put it out of reach with a 2-run double in the tenth. Papelbon was a little shaky, but did his job. Overall, a great win for the Sox. It’s nice to start off the year with a game that everyone contributes in. Manny drove in 4, and Moss drove in 2 including the first home run of his career. Manny, Moss, Youkilis, Ortiz, Pedroia, and Lugo all scored. 

A perfect opening statement for the defense.

Schilling's Shoulder

It looks like the sports gods were tired of all this “Boston, the Hub of Sports” talk that was running around. So, in one week they took down the Patriots and knocked off the Sox number three starter. Just how bad this latest news in depends on how wide of an angle you use to look at it. It’s probably safe to assume that Curt won’t be pitching in any sort of useful capacity this season. He may make it back for a late season push, but I don’t know how much I want to expect from a rusty old pitcher late in the season after shoulder problems. So, what does that mean?

Quick view, it puts Buchholz into the forefront. He would appear the front runner for the now vacant number five starter. Assuming the Sox don’t use Coco to grab a starter, that puts the rotation at Beckett-DiceK-Wakefield-Lester-Buchholz. Not a bad rotation. The Sox have made the playoffs with rotations much worse. I have no problem going into opening day with that. After all, Schilling only gave us 9 wins last year. I can feel comfortable with Clay approaching that total. So, narrow view, not a huge deal to part with Curt.
Slightly larger picture. Buchholz was supposed to be the insurance police in case Curt or Wake needed time off during the season. He’s no longer available for that. So, if Wakefield needs some rest or recovery, we’re down to Snyder. We’re also more likely to see Snyder take some starts since the Sox are still going to be careful with Clay. They’ll want to be able to give him extra rest whenever possible to avoid killing his young arm. So, losing whatever starts Curt would have taken, exposes more starts for Snyder. Is that a big deal? Probably not. They'll figure out some way to rest the youngsters, and still throw a starting pitcher out there every day. Frankly, baseball doesn't have enough good teams to worry about and inconsistant fifth starter.

That leaves the playoffs. With Beckett as the ace, that hides a lot of probelms. Curt would have been nice, but he's really not required. The way Lester handled himself in '07 was great.

Basically, it's too bad since the Sox are already paying for him. But, this certainly doesn't crush the Sox chances this year. Nothing that dramatic. It might even be a good thing if Clay can emerge and show us all that he deserves to be in the rotation anyway.