Does Houston have to Leave?

I think I could handle playing the Astros for another series or two.

So, the Red Sox are going to end April with the best record in baseball. Isn’t that something? Can we draw anything from this? I’m not sure.

A month is a pretty decent sample size. Usually, when a team gets out to a hot start, people say we should all wait until they play the good teams. Then we’ll see what they’re made of. People said that during the most recent Patriots season. Wait until they face an elite quarterback. Then that defense will be their downfall. The problem with that particular argument was that there aren’t really that many elite quarterbacks out there. One of them is on the Patriots. So, who were we supposed to wait for them to face in the playoffs? I think something similar is happening here. Sure, the Sox got to feast on Houston this weekend. But, they’ve also played every other team in the East. They also played KC and Oakland. Who should we be waiting for in order to really judge them? Look at May’s schedule. I don’t see that team on it either. One series in Texas in May. Will that be enough? Philly? Or, will we be sitting at the end of May waiting for them to face the good teams to really get a sense? After 50 games? Or, is this the team the Sox have, and it’s not the competition that is making them look good?

Not that I’m saying they’ll win 110 games this season. But, maybe it’s just about their performance. If they play the way they’ve been playing, they’ll win lots of games. So, the question really should be, can they keep playing the way they’ve been playing?

No.

But, will it hurt them?

I’m going to go out on a limb and say that Lester and Buchholz will both lose some games this year. Clay’s season ERA will be over 2.00. David Ortiz will finish up with a batting average below .500. Those are pretty obvious. What does it all mean? I suppose that depends on everyone else.

If Clay pitches to a 3.00 ERA the rest of the year, can the offense score enough runs to still win games? What about a 4.00 ERA? It’ll be close. Because, while some players are vastly overachieving, some aren’t. For every Nava, there’s a Middlebrooks. For every Papi, there’s a Drew. So, you could make the case that the Sox, on average, should balance themselves out for the rest of the season. The pitchers will give up more runs, by the offense should keep its head generally above water.

It was interesting to hear the EEIdiots this morning saying that if the Sox “only go one game over .500 the rest of the way…” In the past seasons, that would have been “even if the Sox go one game over .500 the rest of the way…” Apparently, if they do that, they’ll be around 87 wins. That sounds about right. If the pitching goes on a good stretch, they’ll win some games. If the pitching has a rough time of it for a stretch, the Sox will slump. This won’t be a team thumping the other pitcher to make up for mistakes. There will be a lot of those close games that could go either way. It’s just a matter of how much of a margin for error they’re giving themselves.

So, no, the Sox aren’t the best team we’ve seen in a generation. But, it’s not like they’re a schedule fluke either. Right now, they’re in a good stretch. This good stretch just happens to have started the season. They’ll go through a rough patch at some point. (The middle of June certainly looks like a good candidate for that.) In general, they’ll be around that .500 mark. That might be good enough to make the playoffs.

Wouldn’t that be fun?

Red Sox 1-36: 22 is for…

Terry Francona being the 22nd pick in the 1980 draft.

When I first started this list, I assigned subjects to all the numbers just to make sure I’d be able to find something worth writing about for each one. When I made the list, it didn’t occur to me that Francona might not be here by the time I got to 22. Weird.

But, the fact that he’s now in Cleveland doesn’t change the fact that he won two titles here, and many people think his draft position is the reason why.

He was a first round pick. He was a sure superstar. An all-star for years to come. Everyone knew it…and so did he. Of course, that didn’t happen. His career, thanks in large part to injuries, never materialized. He bounced around for years, hoping to just make a major league roster. He eventually just drifted away.

He credited that experience as a great background for his managerial career. He knew what it was like to be the cocky young superstar. He knew that he wasn’t about to listen to anyone. He was better than that. It gave him some insight into how to deal with hot shot rookies when he had to manage them. He also knew what it was like to be the veteran trying to hold on. He knew what it felt like to have someone start in your place. He knew what it was like to dread being called into the manager’s office, because it could mean your career just ended.

With those experiences in mind, he was able to relate to his entire roster. He might know what to say to the young rookie who knows he has talent. He might know what to say to the older player who has to step aside for the rookie to play. It’s not hard to see where he might manage differently if he was a 22^nd round pick.

His draft position should also serve as a reminder to the current Red Sox front office of the volatility of any draft pick. I’m sure Montreal was thrilled to draft Francona, and it didn’t work out. Draft picks sometimes don’t work out the way you hope they do.

But, in this case, I’m glad it didn’t work out for Francona. Otherwise, we might be looking at a 95 year drought.

22 is for Terry Francona’s draft position.

When the Hammer Comes Back…

What do the Sox do about the closer’s role?

Isn’t that a wonderful problem to have?

Andrew Bailey has done a wonderful job filling in while Joel Hanrahan has been injured. It’s not really a surprise. The Bailey’s an all-star closer. So, maybe that’s that makes this a non-issue. The Sox started the season with Hanrahan as the closer, knowing full well that Bailey was as least as good, if not better, in the role. So, can’t imagine why they wouldn’t make the same decision again.

My first thought was that maybe you let Bailey keep the closer’s role until Hanrahan is fully back. Let him have a few “get into the flow” games before having him close. But, I realized that I wasn’t sure when those opportunities would be. Do you bring him in for mop-up duty? I doubt that’s helping anybody. Do you have him set-up while he gets his feet wet? That would assume two things. One, that set-up opportunities are less important than closing. They’re not. After all, if Hanrahan blows a one-run lead in the eighth, you don’t need a closer. The other assumption is that Hanrahan would pitch well in the set-up role. Some closers just can’t do that. We all know that all too well. Bailey might be the exception to that. Which is also one strike against him in this case.

Bailey has shown all year that he can be an effective set-up guy. A very effective one at that. The Sox would be silly to play with things when they have a known entity on their hands.

But, that wouldn’t change the fact that your bullpen would have two pitchers very capable of closing. How do you use that bullpen? Do you make it as simple as Bailey setting up for Hanrahan? Do you turn Bailey into a true fireman? If you need outs in the sixth inning, bring him in then? You still have your closer waiting. Can you use Bailey in tie games, or games where the Sox are a run behind?

I’ve often wondered if you can have two complete bullpens. Can you have Tazawa set up for Bailey, and Uehara set up for Hanrahan? Would they get enough work in if you alternated those two?

John Farrell could get very creative with this, or very boring.

Can’t wait to find out.

The Best Around

So, here we sit three full weeks into the season, and the Red Sox find themselves with the best record in the American league.

Huh?

How did they get there?

I was the first to admit that I didn’t know what to think of the 2013 Red Sox. They aren’t as good as the 2011 or 2012 teams. But, were they good enough? I tried to figure out what, exactly, the 2012 Orioles or Giants had that the 2013 Red Sox did not. So far, it doesn’t look like they had anything. But, I still don’t know what to do with “good enough.” As they Sox have shown, if you get good pitching and good hitting, you can score more runs than your opponents. So far, the Sox have had stellar pitching, which is why the games have tilted into their favor so dramatically.

Will it continue?

I have no idea. Well, that’s not exactly true. I have some idea. Of course it’s not going to continue. The Sox aren’t going to finish the season with 100 wins. There’s just too much mediocrity on the team for that. Buchholz will probably see his ERA go over 1.00 this season. Chances are that Mike Napoli doesn’t drive in 120 runs. Things will balance out for a while. Things will dip the other way for a while. Will the Sox still win?

Depends on luck.

Look at the Orioles last year and their stellar record in one run games. Are we supposed to assume that they did something special that led to that? No. But, when you average 5 runs scored a game, and give up an average of 5 runs a game, you’re going to have a lot of close games. Sometimes you end up on top, sometimes you don’t. There are going to be a lot of frustrating games for the Sox, like the two on Sunday. There are going to be a lot of great games for the Sox like Saturday. It’s going to be a constant give and take this season. Do the Sox get that one hit that makes the difference in the game? Do they give it up? There was a season a few years ago when it seemed that the Sox would win a game 10-1, and then lose the next night 3-2. All the time. That’s what this season will be like. If Jon Lester matched up against the other team’s number five guy? 10-1. If Ryan Dempster matches up against the other team’s number two? 3-2. It’s going to be a lot of back and forth. Give and take.

We can only hope there’s more give than take.

I Scored!

August 5, 2001

Seems like a simple enough game. It was late in what was a lost season for the Red Sox. New addition Manny Ramirez was supposed to join with Nomar Garciaparra and Pedro Martinez to give the Red Sox three of the best players in the league. Unfortunately, Nomar injured his wrist, needed surgery, and only returned to the team about a week before. So, while Nomar was still a new story, the rest of the game is pretty mundane.

The Sox jumped out to an early lead on the back of Manny’s first inning homerun. They kept piling it on until they had too big a lead for Texas to come back.

But, wait. What’s that notation after the line-up? “Everett EJ B7” Looks like Everett was ejected after a called third strike in the seventh inning.

Oooh. That game.

This is, of course, the game where Crazy Carl finally snapped. If I remember correctly, this was when the home plate umpire had been on him over not being in the batter’s box fast enough. This really annoyed Carl. (In his defense, the umpire was trying to enforce a rule that didn’t exist.) When he was called out looking, he went off. He screamed at the umpire. He got in the umpire’s face. And, his head made contact with the umpire. (I’m still not willing to call it a “head-butt”) That was that. Everett was ejected, suspended, and gone.

The rest of the game was fairly anti-climactic. The player of the game? Looks like it could be a toss-up between Manny Ramirez and Doug Mirabelli. Doug drove in more runs, without making an out. But, Manny’s initial homer is hard to ignore.

The goat? Everett’s too easy. Going hitless before being ejected isn’t exactly having a great game. Other than him? Chris Stynes in the lead-off spot is a good option. One for five doesn’t exactly say “setting the table.”

But, the Sox didn’t need him. They made their early lead stick, despite some bullpen issues. The Sox were able to overcome the distraction, and come out on top.

And the scorecard shows how it happened.