Conclusions I Drew

I’ve got nothing.

I swear, every time the Sox make a move this off-season, I get more confused.

The Sox apparently decided that they couldn’t afford a light-hitting shortstop for a year. So, they signed a veteran to come in and fill the spot until Iglesias is ready. That makes perfect sense. Some people might say that stellar defense makes up for a lack of production. But, since Drew is apparently above average in the field, that’s not such a big difference. The only confusion with the move comes from the first sentence of this paragraph. It’s incomplete.

You can’t afford a light-hitting shortstop for a year…if you intend on competing. If you’re going through a rebuilding year waiting for this en masse arrival of the prospects, you can have a year of a weak shortstop. You can lose 100 games no matter who you have at short. So, why would you sign a guy for almost $10 million? It’s a complete waste of money…unless you think you’ll compete.

Can the Red Sox compete? With this line-up? They could. If every member of the line-up, rotation, and bullpen matches the best year they’ve had since 2010, the Sox will win 100 games. I’m not really holding my breath. But, this line-up could be sneaky good. Without Iglesias, there isn’t an obvious hole. Nobody scares you…but nobody’s easy either. They might not be terrible.

But, here’s the problem. If the Sox wanted to compete in 2013…what’s with the other moves? Why trade away Crawford and Gonzalez last season? Why sign Victorino and Napoli instead of Hamilton, or Greinke, or Haren, or Sanchez? Why have they been overpaying for mediocrity if they want to win in 2013? (Assuming that there’s ever a reason to overpay for mediocrity.)

So, they can’t possibly expect to win in 2013. Then why sign Drew?

Is anyone else getting dizzy?

Does this mean a trade is in the works? Is Iglesias gone? Is Drew really filling the hole to get to Bogaerts? Is Bogaerts gone? Is Drew holding the spot for Iglesias after all, but the Sox don’t want to rush the shortstop of the future?

Do you need to pay a placeholder $10 million?

Card of the Week

1988 Topps Red Sox Team Leaders

If you have a Wade Boggs player collection, does this card belong in it?

Long ago, card companies realized that stars drove their products. The more chances they had to put stars on cards, the better. Leader cards were a great way to do it. Not only did it allow them to fill an extra star card for each team, but it actually served a purpose. Sure, they could put Boggs in a “Hit Kings” or “Superstar” subset. But, that’s really just another card. But, to make a card listing the leaders at different categories for each team is actually useful.

The design for this card is interesting. Especially when contrasted with the 1988 base cards. Those cards I always liked because the team name floated over the picture, and was even obscured by some of the detail in the photo. The player name similarly wrapped itself around the photo without getting too much in the way. For the leader cards, Topps went in the complete opposite direction. They created the cloud look, that completely obscured the edges of the photo. I can’t quite decide if it works, or not. But, it’s definitely one way to go.

The photo is a nice way to grab a couple Red Sox in one shot. It’s not the world’s most exciting action photo. But, neither is it a corny posed shot. For some reason, it works for me. I’d try and stump Jere and ask him when the picture was taken, but I’ve learned my lesson.

Overall, it’s a nice looking card.

But, is it a Boggs card?

I’m Not Sensing a Plan Here

The Red Sox continue to baffle me with their off-season moves. I keep assuming that they’ll make a move that makes sense of all their crappy moves. Something like, “Oh, they saved money on a first baseman so they could sign Josh Hamilton.” Or, “Oh, they saved money in the outfield because they traded for Giancarlo Stanton.” But, they keep filling up their roster, without adding any talent. So far, they’ve done nothing with that fantastic financial flexibility but save money.

They traded away Adrian Gonzalez, and replaced him with Mike Napoli. Anyone think Mike Napoli has more talent than AGone? Didn’t think so. In fact, Napoli is coming off a terrible year. We’ve been told that that was a fluke. We just need to assume that he’ll return to the numbers he put up during his career year a couple seasons ago. If we’re allowed to do that for Napoli, why doesn’t Gonzalez get the same option? Wouldn’t it be more likely that Gonzalez returns to the numbers he put up for an entire career as opposed to the ones Napoli did once?

They traded away Carl Crawford, and brought in Shane Victorino. Again, Victorino had a terrible year last year. But, we’re supposed to hope that he can return to the numbers he put up a couple years ago. Sound familiar? So, we can assume that Victorino will put up numbers like he used to, but we can’t assume that Crawford will return to form? Even though Crawford’s numbers were much better than Victorino ever had, and he did it for a lot longer than Victorino did? What am I missing here?

You want to tell me that Beckett and Dempster are a wash? Fine. You’d be wrong…but at least you can make an argument that it was worth saving the money. I’d still rather have Beckett who has shown that he can pitch in the AL, as opposed to Dempster who has shown he can’t.

But, that’s not even the real issue. Like I said, if you want to sign lesser players to save money, that’s fine…as long as you use the money for something. The Sox saved, what, $25 million by making those three changes? But, they filled up all their roster spots in the process. If they had used that $25 million on Josh Hamilton, for instance, that would have been one thing. But, they didn’t. They’re just making the team worse, and pocketing the money?

And, you can’t even say they Sox are bridging to the kids. They’ve clogged up all their spots with mediocre talent. The Sox have two shortstop prospects. They can only use one of them. The Sox have Ryan Lavarnway, a top catching prospect…who’s probably more of a first baseman. Too bad. They’ve got Naploi clogging first base for at least the next two years. What about Kalish and Bradley? They’re stars in the wings. Well, they have Victorino now for three years. Does this mean Ellsbury is definitely gone next year? Or, are they going to use the $25 million they saved on him? If they do, they don’t have a spot left for two kids. What about those pitchers they got from LA? Sorry, the rotation is set for the next two years.

Maybe they can use the kids as trade chips? That’s the whole point of having prospects in the first place. So you can trade them away before they become busts. So, you package Lavarnway, Bradley, and Bogaerts together and shop them around. What are you trading for? A first baseman? Then what do you do with Napoli? Can’t trade him. A second baseman? Nope. Shortstop? Not if Iglesias is the real deal. Third baseman? Nope. Clogged up, hopefully. Pitchers? Then you have to move one of the ones you have.

So, I don’t get it at all.

What was the point of making us watch a less talented team?

Three Years of Josh Hamilton

That’s what people wanted. They didn’t want a long deal. Those are always anchors to the teams. Sign everybody for short years, even if it’s for a bit more money a year. What were the Angels thinking? Hamilton won’t be worth that much money in five years.

I’m guessing that the Angels were thinking, “Now we actually have Hamilton”

People always talk about “bad contracts.” Those last few years of a long-term deal, the teams are always overpaying the player. Maybe. But, overpaying is overrated. Let’s look at some recent bad contracts. How about Barry Zito? Terrible contract. People said that at the time. People have said it for a long time. And, Zito probably is overpaid. The Giants overpaid Zito as he led them to their second World Series championship in three years. Where’s the problem? Would they have been better off without Zito on the team? Not sure I you can say they would. Why was the contract so bad?

What about the worst contract in the history of sports? The Alex Rodriguez extension? ARod is tremendously overpaid. Can’t really deny that. But, let’s say the Yankees were smarter than they were, and signed him for a shorter deal. What if their deal with him ended after last season? What would the Yankees do differently now? If he were healthy, wouldn’t ARod be the best third base option available? He’d be at least as good as Kevin Youkilis, right? Really, wouldn’t the Yankees have been smart to sign ARod to an extension last season just to make sure they didn’t have to settle for Youk or Mark Reynolds? With their long contract, don’t the Yankees avoid that problem?

I know, if he were healthy. But, as Carl Crawford showed us, players can get hurt during the second year of a contract too. Heck, Ellsbury showed us that a player can miss two seasons due to injury before they even reach free agency. So, injuries can hit during a contract of any length. Think Victorino won’t get hurt because it’s only a three year deal?

Speaking of Crawford, didn’t he and Gonzalez just illustrate the problem perfectly?

In essence, the Sox just did with Adrian Gonzalez and Carl Crawford what people want them to do with other free agents. They had them for two years, and now don’t have to worry about overpaying them three years from now. But, what did that do for them? Imagine that Gonzalez instead of agreeing to big money actually accepted a two-year deal, and now signed with the Dodgers. Now the Sox are stuck with Mike Napoli at first? They wouldn’t be better off with Gonzalez there? Or, what about Crawford? If the Sox signed him to a two-year deal, and now he signed as a free agent in LA. The Sox had to replace him with Johnny Gomes? This is the sound strategy of building a team?

The people who complain about bad contracts get too worked up in the money. It’s not like these players with bad deal become terrible. They almost all end up being decent players at the end of their contracts. Probably not the superstars they were when they first signed. But, at least as good as the available replacements. It’s not like the Yanks are missing out on Longoria because they’re stuck with the ARod contract.

It’s all about your other options.

Now, I understand payrolls. Some teams can afford to pay $25 million to an average third baseman. That’s a revenue problem that is better saved for another day. But, some teams can. If they can, why don’t they? Otherwise, they end up in the same mess the Sox are in. Plenty of mythical financial flexibility…nobody to use it on. How does that help a team?

If you want good players, you need to pay them.

The Red Sox Should Sign Dice-K

What if the gave him one year, and gave him full control of his pitching?

I’ve mentioned something similar to this before. I thought it was worth trying when he just had a year or two left on his deal. Now, I think it’s an even better idea.

Basically, Daisuke Matsuzaka was a legend in Japan. Probably still is. He was a superstar that had done everything he could before coming to the United States. When he was first joining the Red Sox, there were few questions about what he would become. The only ones that were out there, though, related to the transition to the American game. How would he handle a five-man rotation? He’s used to throwing a lot more between starts than major league pitchers do. He’s not used to being taken out of games after just a little trouble. How will that all work?

It doesn’t look like it worked all that well. The Red Sox tried to turn him into and American starter, and destroyed what they had. Before his rookie season, SI ran an article on him. In it the author mentioned that all pitchers have shoulder trouble that shows up in an MRI. It’s just what happens. Pitchers can pitch long times with terrible looking MRI’s. Not Dice-K, though. Despite the ton of pitches he threw in Japan, his MRI was clean as a whistle. Then, four years into his American career, he needs Tommy John surgery? Maybe he was doing something that worked for him. Maybe he was doing lots of things that worked for him. Maybe they should let him try it again.

So, sign him for one year. He can’t make that much, right? He was only making seven or eight million a year with the Sox. That’s the going rate for a platoon left fielder. So, sign him. Then, give him free reign. If he thinks it’s better to only pitch every six days, let him. The rotation can work around it. If he can pitch better knowing he won’t have a quick hook, don’t give him one. Tell him he’s pitching seven innings, and exactly seven innings, in every start. It’s up to him to make it seven innings. If he throws 70 pitches, good for him. If he throws 170, he’ll be tired. But, he’s pitching seven. If he wants to throw 100 pitches on his off day, let him. If he wants to run seventeen miles the day of his start, let him. See what happens.

Maybe he’ll crash and burn. Maybe the Sox will lose almost all of his starts. Thank goodness he’ll just be the fifth starter. The Sox lose most of those starts anyway. Chances are, he’ll win a few just by luck anyway.

But maybe, just maybe, he’ll respond to the familiarity. Maybe he’ll be the Daisuke he could be.

Wouldn’t that be worth the risk?