I Hope This Doesn't Turn into 2011

You remember 2011, don't you? That was the year Theo exerted his control to push Terry Francona out the door. It's the year the team hoped that being “good enough” would be good enough.

The Red Sox had built an early lead and were cruising along in the second half. Then, the injuries started to pile up. That leaves a team with two choices. They can make a move to replace the injured player, or they can try to ride out the injury. Theo and his love of prospects decided it was best to ride things out rather than use a chip for a short rental. It wasn't a terrible idea. The Sox had that lead to work with. With a decent showing, and a little luck, they would be fine with what they had.

Of course, they weren't fine.

Kyle Weiland ended up getting some key September starts, and lost them both. The schedule conspired to make the Rays play crucial games against the Yankees at a time when the Yankees were giving away wins. The Sox ended up winning fewer games than their Pythagorean Method would suggest (meaning they were unlucky) and missed the playoffs at the last moment.

Like I said, it wasn't a bad strategy. The Sox just needed to pull out one of the Weiland starts...or any other start for that matter. If they had traded away a future star just to hold onto and end up with a ten game lead, that would have seemed wasteful. They played the percentages, and the percentages failed them.

What does that have to do with 2019? I see the Sox doing the same thing.

Easing their pitchers into things made sense. No need to win every game in April if it means you can't win any in September. If Eovaldi is going to be out for a short time, it makes sense not to go out and get a big arm to replace him. Just make do, and pick things up when he returns. After all, you don't need to win April at a .700 clip. Just win lots of your games, and you’ll be in good shape.

But just like 2011, the percentages have failed them.

The Sox didn't win lots of their April games. They lost almost all of them. The Sox aren't winning some of their “bullpen starts” they're using to replace Eovaldi. They getting smoked in all of them. It doesn't make sense. They should be pulling some of these game out, almost by accident.

Last year? They would have won every bullpen game. The offense would have slugged their way to make up for the pitching. They would have (and did) win games in April. Good starts weren't wasted. Things lined up where they scored runs when they needed them, and didn't score when they didn't. That's what you need to win 108 games. Luck with things like that. Last year, the Sox got all the luck.

This year? They're getting none of it.

That's where they compare to 2011. They're using a reasonable, proven, strategy and it's just not working out for them.

I hope their luck turns soon.