I’m With the Nerds

When I discussed the MVP race in the American League recently, and the qualifications for both Mookie Betts and JD Martinez, I left out one section of the argument.

The “Nerd Stats”.

The EEIdiots were lamenting the fact that JD Martinez should easily win the MVP, but that he may not even finish in the top three after the nerds get done looking at their computers. They thought it was a damn shame that fewer people make their votes based on the way a player plays, and instead rely on what the nerd numbers say.

Which is, of course, idiotic.

The whole basic premise of that argument is that you don’t need a computer to tell if a player is good or not. Which is nonsense for many reasons. First, you don’t need a computer for any of these newfangled statistics. Even WAR, or FIP, or VORP. All you need is a decent calculator. Of course, that’s not much different. A computer is really just a bunch of calculators. But, the point is that the stats just require some math to get to. So?

Have you ever figured out a batting average without a calculator? Unless the guy has one hit in ten at-bats, I’m going to need a calculator to figure it out. And, that’s about as old timey as a statistic can get. No, with WAR you don’t just get to count the number. It takes some multiplication and division. But, just like batting average, it doesn’t make it less valid.

Because things like home runs, and even pitcher wins still have some value. A person who hits 50 home runs has more power than a guy who hits ten. A pitcher with 20 wins is almost always a better pitcher than a guy who has five. But, they don’t really tell the story. And they certainly don’t tell the story when the numbers are closer to each other.

Take a guy who hits 50 home runs. Is he a better power hitter than a guy who hits 40? 45? That’s depends on a lot of things. How many at-bats did it take to hit those home runs? If a guy hits 50 home runs in 600 at bats, that’s not as good as a guy who hit 40 in 300 at bats. Or, what if the guy who hit 40 home runs also hit 40 doubles, while the guy who hit 50 home runs only had five? Is that a better power hitter? And, that’s only looking at two counting stats. What if a guy has three more home runs, but five more triples, but three fewer doubles, but 50 more singles? Is that a better power hitter? That’s where the slugging percentage comes in. It’s tries to group all the different power numbers into a single stat. I’m not sure if that’s a nerd stat or not. But, it sure as heck requires a calculator. It also shows that there’s nothing wrong with the home run statistic. It just doesn’t show the whole story. If you want to know who the best home run hitter is? You can count home runs. If you want to know the better slugger? You need to get out the calculator.

What if you wanted to look at the better “hitter”? It always bugged me when people would call Wade Boggs the best Red Sox hitter since Ted Williams. Just because he had a high batting average (my calculator told me that), does that make him a great “hitter”? Or, does it make him a great singles hitter? After all, Ted would have a high batting average AND club a bunch of home runs. Isn’t that better? Boggs used to walk a lot. If you used a calculator, you’d know he had a good on base percentage. But, Ted had one of those too…and hit for power. That makes him better, right? That’s where OPS came in. Simply add the slugging percentage to on base percentage. The higher that number, the better hitter you are. Is OPS a perfect stat? Of course not. But, it’s a way to account for all the different aspects of hitting in one number.

And, that’s all the “nerd” stats try to do. They try to incorporate all the different aspects of a player into a number. Because it’s not all cut and dry. Does a player make a lot of plays in the field because he covers a lot of ground? Or it is because a lot of balls are hit to him? Does a player dive a lot because he puts in so much effort? Or, because he was out of position to start with? Does he score runs because he runs the bases well? Or because the guy behind him hits a lot of doubles?

Stats like WAR try to incorporate all of that. How well does a player hit? Or hit for power? Or run? Or field? Or throw? Those are the five tools we’re looking for, right? So, wouldn’t a top player excel in all of those? Wouldn’t you want a way to measure that?

Even if you needed a calculator?